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1. The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region. Despite the Arab uprisings of the last decade, most countries in the Middle East remain in the grip of autocrats, with a widespread view that this is the 'default setting' for the region. However, an examination of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where authoritarianism has been revived, reveals both regimes are struggling for popular legitimacy. Increasingly reliant on repression, these regimes risk provoking civil unrest, and external powers should reconsider their assumption that autocracy guarantees stability in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Egypt

2. Behind the Veil: Women in Jihad After the Caliphate

Author:
Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Women will be important to the resurgence and transformation of the Islamic State from governance project to global terrorist insurgency. Islamic State has expanded both the potential and the scope of the roles and functions women can play, providing additional avenues for their participation in jihad in both kinetic and non-kinetic roles. The cohort of former caliphate members of mostly women and children now held in camps pose a key challenge for counterterrorism efforts around the world. Assumptions about women and violence can obstruct an accurate assessment of the threat female IS supporters pose and an accurate understanding of their agency.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Australia, and Syria

3. Charities and Terrorism: Lessons from the Syrian Crisis

Author:
Rodger Shanahan
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Terrorists have manipulated the humanitarian crisis in Syria to create a cover for foreign fighters and to raise funds for terrorist groups under the guise of charitable donations. While terrorist abuse of charitable donations is a limited problem, even small amounts of funding can have disproportionately large effects. Early government intervention in setting due diligence standards for humanitarian aid groups operating in, or raising funds for use in, high-risk conflict zones is essential. The Australian Government should use the ‘declared area’ legislation more widely to raise the risk threshold for those seeking to use humanitarian assistance as cover for supporting terrorist causes overseas.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Australia, and Syria

4. Why the Gulf matters: crafting an Australian security policy for the Gulf

Author:
Rodger Shanahan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The government's decision to withdraw Australian combat elements from southern Iraq by the middle of 2008 has the potential to consign the Arabian Gulf region 1 to the periphery of Australian policy interests. There is a consequent temptation to focus our security policy on Australia's immediate region, or within West Asia only on Afghanistan where our combat forces will likely be operating for some time to come. To do so, however, flies in the face of our substantial, diverse and growing economic interests in the Gulf (including an upcoming Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement), our interests in counterterrorism and counter-proliferation, and our record of regularly deploying Australian Defence Force (ADF) elements into the region over the last 20 years. These factors, along with the government's recognition that '...the challenges (that) Australia faces will require us to be more internationally active, not less' 2 mean that, in an uncertain world where our strategic horizon extends beyond Southeast Asia, it is prudent to maintain and consider enhancing the diplomatic and security connections we have built up in the Gulf, albeit in a piecemeal fashion, over nearly two decades.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, Arabia, Australia, and United Arab Emirates

5. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

6. Fuelling confrontation: Iran, the US and the oil weapon

Author:
Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

7. New rules for a new 'Great Game'

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Strongly growing demand for oil, the sharp run up in prices since mid-2003 and tight supply, have seen energy insecurity return to the international policy agenda. Fears have been raised that China's emergence as a voracious consumer of oil and gas and a keen competitor in global energy markets might imperil the largely cordial relationship that has developed between Beijing and Washington over the last decade. There is also a risk that the competition for energy resources could feed into the less than cordial relations between China and Japan. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to examine the risks that the competition for oil resources might pose for international security, focusing in particular on the relationships between the United States, Middle East oil producers and major Northeast Asian energy consumers, and to propose a mechanism for defusing some of the risks that this competition could entail.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Middle East

8. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

9. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

10. Beyond Arafat

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East