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31. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

32. The sting of climate change

Author:
Sarah Potter
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Global climate change will intensify the already significant malaria and dengue problems in maritime Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. Those countries with the fewest resources and poor public health infrastructure are likely to feel the impact of increasing disease the most acutely. Australia itself is a 'fringe country' to the expanding endemic zone of mosquito-borne diseases to its north. Climate change may well make more of northern Australia more vulnerable to malaria and dengue outbreaks.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Health
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

33. Engaging Pakistan

Author:
Claude Rakisits
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The late November terror attacks in Mumbai have once again thrown the spotlight onto Pakistan. The country had already been struggling with growing international pressure over the safe haven and support that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and international terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda were obtaining in Pakistan's troubled Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and North West Frontier Province. Claims that the Mumbai attacks were carried out by Pakistani nationals, perhaps linked to the terrorist group Lashkar–e-Taiba (LeT), will place even more pressure on Islamabad.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

34. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

35. Stopping a nuclear arms race between America and China

Author:
Hugh White
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's interests in a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region are threatened by the risk of intensifying strategic nuclear competition between the US and China. This may seem a little surprising in the post-Cold War world. We have perhaps allowed ourselves to assume a little too easily that nuclear weapons ceased to matter much in relations between major powers after the Cold War was over. We have worried much more about the risk that they will be acquired by new players – rogue states or terrorists – who might not respond to the incentives and threats that shaped nuclear strategy between major powers during the Cold War.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Australia

36. Design faults: the Asia Pacific's regional architecture

Author:
Allan Gyngell
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
When the leaders from 21 Asia Pacific economies meet in Sydney for the APEC leaders' meeting in September, they will be elbowing for attention and relevance in an overcrowded field of regional organisations. Our problem is that there are too many regional forums, yet they still cannot do all the things we need.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

37. Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls

Author:
Ron Walker
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The prospect of Australia's selling uranium to India offers major potential benefits both for our exports and our foreign policy. There is however a conundrum as to how this could be done in a way that advances rather than damages Australia's interest in the global enterprise to resist the spread of nuclear weapons and in a rules-based international order.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
India and Asia

38. HIV/AIDS: The looming Asia Pacific pandemic

Author:
Bill Bowtell
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The international effort to control the spread of the HIV pandemic is failing: new HIV caseloads are rising alarmingly in many parts of the Asia Pacific. For over 20 years we have known how to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus by persuading young people to make simple and sustainable changes in sexual practices and other risky behaviours. Yet despite the scientific evidence, many national governments are unable or unwilling to act in time to avert the problem.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS and Health
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

39. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

40. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby

Author:
Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific