31. Continuity and Change in North Korea
- Author:
- Andrei Lankov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- Kim Jong-il, the hereditary ruler of North Korea, is dead, and his son—visibly shaken and patently unprepared for the job—has replaced him as the head of the world's last remaining Stalinist state. The start of a new era in the DPRK is a good time to speculate on what we should expect from the “Hermit Kingdom” in future. While crystal ball-gazing has never been an exact science and history often takes quite sudden turns, it is difficult to be optimistic when thinking about North Korea's future. Kim Jong-il's death on the early morning of December 17, 2011, was one of those events which, while expected sooner or later, nonetheless occurred suddenly. It certainly could not be termed a surprise, however. Kim had suffered a stroke in late 2008, and never completely recovered. Soon thereafter, North Korea began preparations for a hereditary transfer of power. Many observers pointed out that these began belatedly. Had Kim Jong-il been more serious about the future of his regime, a successor should have been firmly in place by the early 2000s. Nonetheless, in October 2010 the choice of successor was made public. Kim Jong-un, Kim's youngest (known) son, was suddenly promoted to the rank of four-star general, and thereafter his name began to appear in North Korean propaganda with growing frequency. Nevertheless, it appears that North Korea's policy makers believed that they would have a few more years at their disposal before they would need to finalize the hereditary power transition. For, when Kim Jong-il died, Kim Jong-un had yet to officially become his second-in-command. As of mid-December, Kim Jong-un was, technically speaking, merely one of many members of the country's top leadership: neither a Politburo member nor a member of the National Defense Commission, the supreme executive body of the state. This constituted a major potential handicap. Yet when Kim Jong-il died, no one dared exploit this potential weakness of the heir apparent. Kim Jong-un was recognized as the new leader immediately upon the death of his father and, seemingly, without much resistance. As of this writing, the transition in Pyongyang appears to be unfolding smoothly. The North Korean elite appears to be united—not so much by their loyalty to the Kim family, or by some shared ideological convictions, but rather by an understanding that political infighting at the top might endanger the whole system. They probably never heard of Benjamin Franklin's famous adage that “We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.” Yet they are acting in full accordance with this famous dictum. Still, the smoothness of the transition now taking place in Pyongyang is misleading. North Korea might in the future follow a number of different trajectories, but none guarantees an orderly and gradual transformation of the country.
- Political Geography:
- North Korea