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101. LONDON: Downing Street Blues

Author:
Michael Gove
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
LONDON—Normally, when politicians make predictions, events conspire to make them look foolish. But there was one forecast from a politician in 2007 which has been uncannily accurate. Presciently, precisely and painfully so. Interviewed on the BBC at the beginning of last year, British minister David Miliband reflected on the unpopularity of the then Prime Minister, and tried to suggest that unpopularity was just a feature of incumbency. In a year, he predicted, people would be saying, “Wouldn't it be great to have that Blair back because we can't stand that Gordon Brown.”

102. BAGHDAD: Winds of Change

Author:
Joel D. Rayburn
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
BAGHDAD—Most change in Iraq is incremental. For those of us working here in Baghdad, engrossed in the day-to-day details of a particular portfolio, change doesn't really register until we step back and mark where we are against where we began. My own frame of reference dates from December 200, when I first visited Baghdad just a few weeks before the President announced the decision to “surge” U.S. forces into Iraq to deal with a security situation that was spinning out of control. Baghdad was on the verge of a sectarian civil war that Iraqi politicians seemed powerless or unwilling to halt, while Anbar province was in the grasp of a potent insurgency. The mood at MNF-I and the U.S. Embassy was bleak, and a sense of resignation prevailed among the strategists and staff.
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

103. Looking Back to Look Forward

Author:
Asaf Romirowsky
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
The enormity of September 11th, the massive scale of destruction and loss brought about by calculated suicide hijacking and a desire to kill for the sake of killing, forced America to open its eyes and take a closer look at the Middle East. More than any other single event over the past few decades, 9/11 has been responsible for generating questions about the nature of U.S. involvement in the region.
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Middle East

104. Turf War

Author:
Ilan Berman
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
It has been nearly five years since President George W. Bush stood on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincolnand announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq. During that time, the United States has gotten a first-hand education in the complex ideological and religious frictions that simmer below the sur-face in the Muslim world. And while the Bush administration's “surge” has now helped the Coalition regain the initiative in the former Ba'athist state, it has become abundantly clear that if Washington and its allies hope to maintain—and, better yet, to expand—their influence in the region as a whole, they still have a great deal to learn about what makes its inhabitants tick.
Political Geography:
United States

105. Tracking the Dragon

Author:
Randall G. Schriver
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
In their 197 classic folk-rock song, Buffalo Springfield sang the verses, “There's something happening here; What it is ain't exactly clear.” Such are the sentiments of many U.S. policymakers when analyzing the so-called “rise of China.” The “something” we know to be happening is the emergence of China onto the world stage—a development that our own National Intelligence Council opined “is similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful U.S. in the early 20th century, and will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.
Political Geography:
China and Germany

106. Expecting the Unexpected

Author:
Adam Lovinger
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Over the past few decades, forcing events, strategic surprises and wild cards have exacted a heavy toll. The near-instantaneousness of Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and some natural disasters—as well as the “slow surprise” of HIV/AIDS, which circled the globe for nearly fifty years before being recognized as a pandemic—all serve as examples of the certainty of uncertainty in global politics.

107. From the Publisher

Author:
Tom Neumann
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
An interesting article appeared in the paper the other day. It concerned a report from the former American overseer of Iraq's prisons. The official, Don Bordenkircher, claimed that during his time there several prisoners had “boasted of being involved in the transport of WMD warheads to Syria.”
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, and Syria

108. Editor's Corner

Author:
Ilan Berman
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Here in Washington, the “silly season” is well and truly upon us. Observing the frenetic campaign cycle, with its endless media appearances, speeches and jostling for political position, it's easy to understand why conventional wisdom has it that no serious policy gets done in an election year. And yet, foreign policy remains front and center on the national agenda. As of this writing, at least one crisis, the conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia, has broken into the open, while another—that of Iran's nuclear ambitions—waits in the wings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Islam
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Washington, Georgia, and South Ossetia

109. Turkey: Partnership on the Brink

Author:
Zeyno Baran
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Is Turkey turning away from the United States? On the surface, it certainly looks that way. The number of Turks with a positive view of the U.S. has dropped steadily, from 52 percent in 2000, to 30 percent in 2002, to only 13 percent as of June 2008, according to the most recent Pew poll. Seventy percent of Turks consider the U.S. an “enemy.” These numbers are particularly dismal compared to those of other countries polled: only 60 percent of Pakistanis, 39 percent of Egyptians, and 34 percent of Russians and Chinese hold the same views.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Egypt

110. Israel and Syria: Tactical Peace

Author:
David Wurmser
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last few months, Israel and Syria—through Turkish mediation—have resumed some sort of peace talks. Despite the volume and frequency of these overtures at the moment, this round of “peacemaking” will not break precedent; meaningful progress is highly unlikely. Instead, it fits a pattern of previous such efforts—overtures which led nowhere or even ended in the opposite, namely escalation (as in 1995-1996 and 1998-1999). Neither the Israeli nor the Syrian government is currently positioned to enter real peace talks. But each, for its own reasons, has a great momentary interest in talking about talks with great vigor.
Political Geography:
Israel and Syria