1. A Guide to Investigating Outbreak Origins
- Author:
- Richard Pilch, Miles A. Pomper, Jill Luster, and Filippa Lentzos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has exposed key gaps in the global community’s ability to assess infectious disease outbreaks of international concern, in particular the ability to differentiate between natural and laboratory sources of infection. The risk of natural outbreaks is increasing as unchecked population growth, industrial expansion, and corresponding ecological disruption increases the likelihood that novel disease agents will come into contact with naïve human populations. Likewise, the risk of laboratory accidents is increasing as more high-containment laboratories are built and higher risk experiments are conducted around the world. Meanwhile, a deliberate biological attack may resemble an outbreak of natural or accidental origin, and a natural or accidental outbreak may be misattributed as an attack. The purpose of this Occasional Paper is to outline a readily adoptable, stepwise methodology to guide the investigation of corresponding outbreak origins, building upon traditional epidemiological principles. We have sought to remain minimally intrusive at all times; however, an increasing level of need-to-know information, site, and personnel access becomes necessary as attention shifts toward potential laboratory sources. Accordingly, we include recommendations to ensure such access under existing international regimes, primarily the World Health Organization (WHO)’s International Health Regulations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Science and Technology, World Health Organization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus