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101. European Energy Security Challenges and Global Energy Trends: Old Wine in New Bottles?

Author:
Marie-Claire Aoun
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
European energy security challenges have changed dramatically in the past 20 years. On the one hand, the current tensions between Russia and the EU are undermining their historical partnership on energy; on the other, deep transformations in the energy landscape at the global level, triggered by technological advances and major geo-political transformations, are leading the EU to rethink its energy security strategy. The aim of this paper is to discuss European energy security in a changing global context and to analyse the tools and policies implemented to strengthen it. The role of potential future vectors of energy cooperation between the EU and its Mediterranean neighbours is also examined.
Political Geography:
Europe

102. The Multilateralisation of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A Call for an EU Initiative

Author:
Daniela Huber and Lorenzo Kamel
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The "battleground" of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is shifting from its local context, where it has been placed in the Oslo, Intifada and Roadmap/Quartet periods, to its original dimension: the international arena. While it is indeed unclear if a multilateral approach will fare well, it is a fact that the unilateral/bilateral approach has failed. Having reached the end of the Middle East Peace Process as we have known it for the past decades, it is about time to be open-minded about realistic alternatives. This paper analyses these potential scenarios, the roles played by the main local and international actors, and outlines how a EU multilateral initiative should look like.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

103. Beyond the Intergovernmental-Supranational Divide in EU Foreign Policy: Insights from Kosovo

Author:
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Because of the intergovernmental nature of EU foreign policy, the role of the European Commission in EU external action is often considered minimal or residual. Providing a systematic review of the case of Kosovo, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to identify different degrees of integration in EU foreign policy. It does so by investigating under which conditions Member States delegate foreign policy competences to the Commission. In the case of Kosovo, integration in EU foreign policy has been conditioned by the level of control Member States have chosen exercise on or delegate to supranational institutions.
Political Geography:
Europe

104. The Eastern Partnership, the Russia-Ukraine War, and the Impact on the South Caucasus

Author:
Amanda Paul
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The South Caucasus is a fragmented and security challenged region. Despite hopes that the Eastern Partnership (EaP) would act as a transformative tool to strengthen democracy, stability, security and regional cooperation, this has not happened. Rather the EaP has produced limited results, with the region today more fragmented than it was five years ago. Russia's war against Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation as it raised concerns over the extent to which the South Caucasus countries could genuinely rely on the West. Today, Armenia, and Georgia have different geostrategic trajectories. While Georgia has stuck to the Euro-Atlantic track, Armenia joined the Russian-led Eurasian Union in January 2015. Meanwhile Azerbaijan has the luxury of choosing not to choose. Developments in the region have demonstrated that a one size fits all approach does not work and a more differentiated policy is required.
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

105. A Changing Picture with Unaltered Contours: US-Iran Antagonism in the Context of the Iraq-Syria Crisis

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Such is the magnitude of the crisis in Iraq and Syria that experts have started wondering whether the area will witness a major realignment between the main rival camps, the US and its allies on the one hand and Iran and its proxies on the other. The US and Iran – so the argument goes – share a critical interest in fighting the Islamic State and keep Iraq from total breakdown. Only by joining forces can they bring stability to the region, which incidentally should also serve as an incentive for both parties to reach a compromise on the nuclear issue. This interpretation, however, fails to account for the effects that a US-Iran rapprochement would have on the US's system of alliances in the region. US-Iran relations are likely to remain antagonistic, although the Iraq-Syria crisis and the nuclear issue have indeed the potential to re-orientate them along a less adversarial pattern.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Syria

106. Morocco's Power Sector Transition: Achievements and Potential

Author:
Tayeb Amegroud
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the only North African country with no own oil resources, Morocco is the largest energy importer in the region. The country is faced with the challenging task of meeting rising local demand while keeping its import bill under control. Against this backdrop, Morocco is pursuing an ambitious, cost- effective energy transition aimed at endowing the country with a sustainable, competitive and secure energy sector. This paper assesses the achievements and constraints facing the Moroccan energy system with a focus on the power sector, which is responsible for the transformation or production of more than half of the country's primary energy. It also dwells on existing policies aimed at integrating the Moroccan energy market into the regional and Euro-Mediterranean energy systems by exploiting its strategic position at the crossroads between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

107. The Changing Role of International Negotiations in EU Climate Policy

Author:
Oliver Geden and Severin Fischer
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
For many years, the EU pursued the strategy of 'leading by example' in international climate negotiations. Climate policy has generally been seen as one of the few policy fields in which the EU is able to develop coherent positions and speak with a single voice. Since the Copenhagen climate summit, however, frictions inside the EU and a paradigm shift have become increasingly evident. With the October 2014 compromise in the European Council on a new framework for 2030, the international climate negotiations have become less important and a more incremental domestic approach has prevailed.
Political Geography:
Europe

108. Is the US-China Climate Agreement a Game-changer?

Author:
Luigi Carafa
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The United States and China recently announced a joint climate agreement that creates unprecedented political momentum for the Paris COP21 to be held in December 2015. Yet, it is unclear whether such a deal is an historic breakthrough or business as usual policy. A closer look at the US-China climate agreement shows that the chances that the agreed measures have of limiting global warming to 2°C are very few. If seen in terms of concrete policy action, the US pledge comes closer to a pathway compatible with a 2°C target. By contrast, however, China's pledges are far from consistent with a 2°C pathway. As the COP21 approaches, it is becoming clear that China matters more than ever for an effective climate deal. But it is also becoming increasingly clear that, in the best case scenario, Beijing will support a start now/sprint later agreement in Paris.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
United States and China

109. International Climate Negotiations

Author:
Steinar Andresen
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Most observers agree that more than 20 years of UN climate negotiations have been a failure. Some argue that the top-down approach is one important reason for this and that a bottom-up approach or more exclusive club approaches would have rendered better results. Based on experience with these approaches so far this is far from self-evident and there are limits to what can be achieved by clever institutional design when deep-seated political conflicts prevail. Many approaches are also hybrids between the various approaches and the future climate regime will probably contain elements of both the top-down and the bottom-up approach. However no quick fixes can be expected for this exceedingly 'malign' problem.
Topic:
Climate Change

110. Justice and Climate Finance

Author:
Steven Vanderheiden
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Institutional mechanisms for administering international climate finance constitute key components of an effect global climate regime, and the Green Climate Fund represents what promises to become the most important such mechanism. As the Fund begins to serve its function of transferring economic resources from developed to developing countries to support mitigation and adaptation activities, it faces several obstacles. Since contributions to the Fund by states or private parties are voluntary, they are not necessarily based on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change's "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle. Its governing instrument also departs from UNFCCC principles. In addition, the Fund faces a significant ambition gap in pledges to fund its operations. By instantiating several informal means of applying climate justice norms to assessments of national contributions to climate finance, some of this resistance might be overcome, increasing support for the Fund and, with this, increasing prospects for reaching consensus on a new climate treaty architecture at COP 21.