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22. Kazakhstan: Presidential Succession and Political Instability in a Neopatrimonial State / Kazajstán: sucesión presidencial e inestabilidad política en un Estado neopatrimonial
- Author:
- Rubén Ruiz Ramas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The refusal of Nursultan Nazarbayev, both to designate his future successor and to strengthen the institutions that can take responsibility for this task, fuel the potential for conflict attached to the future context of succession. The horizon of the transfer of power concerns Nazarbayev, who in July 2018 reaches 78 years old. The sources of concern are related not only to Nazarbayev’s family safety but also to the risk of confrontation among the elite networks and their social, ethnic and regional power basis. A kind of political instability vulnerable to escalation to major threatens to the national and even regional security. On the one hand, this article aims to analyse the structural vulnerability of Kazakhstan to a context of presidential succession product of its nature as an authoritarian regime and a neopatrimonial state. On the other hand, the paper also tackles the preparation of that context by the authorities and the options available to deal with the transfer of power. To this end, the paper begins with an analysis of the neopatrimonial state heterogeneity in Central Asia, followed by a section focused on the specific nature of the authoritarianism and neopatrimonialism in Kazakhstan. Finally, it elaborates the Kazakh context of succession, and the several options of transfer of power and the likely actors involved in them are examined.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Kazakhstan
23. Energy Security from a European Union scope: the role of Russia / Seguridad energética en clave de la Unión Europea: el papel de Rusia
- Author:
- Nuria G. Rabanal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The aim of this work is to show the energy situation of the European Union (EU) across the analysis of its energy policy focusing in energy security. The facts show the important role of Russia as energy player and its influence in the design of energy strategy of the EU. As a reply of the strong dependency of Russian imports, European institutions have developed a strategy structured in two dimensions; internal and external one with the aim to guarantee the international cooperation with third countries, the increasing of internal energy market integration, the promotion of energy save, and the search of effective alternatives to conventional sources. The EU Strategy has designed a joint of measures that includes the increasing in the efficient use of conventional sources combined with higher levels in energy Investment, Innovation and technological Development (I+D+I), and the promotion of renewables. This is the way to change the classical energy model to a new one more compatible with the environment and a sustainable economic growth but also that implies a significant reduction of energy dependence.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
24. European Union Eastern Neighbourhood and the Post-Soviet Conflicts / Vecindario oriental de la Unión Europea y los conflictos post-soviéticos
- Author:
- José Ángel López Jiménez
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The abrupt Soviet Union´s dissolution came accompanied by a whole of different typology of conflicts causing high complexity in the convulsed independent statehood construction process. Secessionism in cascade of territorial and administrative entities have been a useful tool in Kremlin´s hand in order to enhance their interests in the post-soviet space. Russian Foreign Policy in shared neighborhood with Eastern European Union borders has an absolute priority in their interests-defined in strategic documents- infringing the main Contemporary International Law principles. Russian interventionism in the independent republics acquires different modalities since the 2008 summer- with Russian armed forces penetrating in Georgia and supporting Abjasia and South Ossetia secessionist movements- are even increasing these actions. In 2014, with Crimea´s annexation and the conflict in Ukraine -Eastern districts-, Russian expansionism seems to be reached a road without return. Specially due to international community inaction and Russia´s return to a protagonist role in a multipolar order in construction.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Law, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
25. The Eastern Dimension of European Neighbourhood Policy in the Framework of New Global Strategy / La Dimensión Oriental de la Política Europea de la Vecindaden la nueva estrategia global
- Author:
- Victoria Rodríguez Prieto
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- “The Global Strategy Foreign Policy and Security of the European Union” has triggered significant measures in comparison with previous framework, which was elaborated in 2003 and updated in 2008 by then High Representative J. Solana. Those measures aim to promote more security in response to all vulnerabilities which tests stability, especially in European neighbourhood. Likewise, new European response should be understood in the framework of Lisbon Treaty´s innovations. The latter have let European Union (EU) provide with a more ambitious action in tune with external context. Regarding European neighbourhood, changes in Southern but also Eastern regions remains as main concern. While this is true that major challenges are in the southern area due to civil war in Syria, failed-state Libya, presence of Daesh and other extremist groups in the area. Meanwhile, to the East, context has undergone in the last few years owing to the Ukrainian crisis but also the Belarus dictatorship headed by V. Lukashenko, high levels of corruption in Moldova, recent political and social riots in Armenia, non-changes in Azerbaijan or the increase violence in Nagorno-Karabakh region. New strategy seeks to address these challenges through measures based on a great reinforcement of European normative dimension. Concerning neighbouring states, principle of pragmatism and resilience are the most relevant. All this strengthens by principle of differentiation, co-ownership and more flexibility embedded in the recent revised ENP, which facilitates their implementation. Our main purpose lies in analyzing innovations’ global strategy with regard to the Eastern neighbouring states whose relations with EU are within the so-called Eastern Partnership. This article argues that, to a certain extent, those have a certain impact on Eastern Partnership. However, significant results will become more visible in the mid-long term.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, and Middle East
26. NATO and Postmodernity. An Organization not too well Understood and Geopolitically Necessary / La OTAN y la postmodernidad. Una organización poco comprendida y geopolíticamente necesaria
- Author:
- Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- NATO is an organization hindered by its 20th century success; in addition, it is not well understood in a postmodern world despite having been transformed by increasing its political aspect and reduced its military weight through the simple re-reading of its founding treaty. A "Hard" power institution in a postmodern and "Soft” world. However, risks and threats have only faded and, although they have lost some of their intensity, they have gained in specter. Paradoxically, NATO dissolution with the end of the Cold War would have led to the disappearance of a forum for dialogue, to the unraveling of the security space and, thus, to the rearming of Europe. Russia is the continent nation heir to the USSR, the reason for the creation of NATO. But Russia is not the USSR in geopolitical or ideological terms, even though its recent action has brought back the shadows of the Cold War. The complexity of the approach to the problem of its relationship with the West cannot be reduced to the dichotomous and exclusive enemy friend key (it is a partner, supplier, supplier ... more than a strategic rival). Its correct definition comes from the resolution of the problem of its identity. In this context, NATO remains a geopolitically necessary organization, not in vain is today the only bridge that links exclusively Europe and the United States while contributing to the stability and structure of the West. And it serves to find a place for Russia too. His eventual tensing is a proof of the vigor of his health and the need to find channels of understanding among its members. In general, it is not good to blow up bridges already built despite it is legitimate to want to change them.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, and Military Spending
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and United States of America
27. Ontological Security and Threat Perceptions: Russia vis-à-vis NATO Enlargement / Seguridad ontológica y percepciones de amenaza: Rusia antela ampliacióndela OTAN
- Author:
- Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Russia considers the rapprochement or integration into NATO of other countries of Central and Eastern Europe or the Caucasus as a direct threat, even though it does not pose any danger to its own sovereignty and territorial integrity. Instead of interpreting this process as a mere competition for influence, Russian leaders perceive it primarily as a military threat, which would even justify the use of force to counteract it. In the present article we investigate the social and ideational factors that have led to this securitization of NATO enlargement, preventing Moscow from adapting to the new game of alliances in a more pragmatic way. The concept of “ontological security” allows us to explain the consistency and permanence over time of these Russian perceptions, which are derived from its own subjective needs.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Sovereignty, Non-Traditional Threats, and Ontology
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
28. Argentina: National Security Strategy and Armed Forces / Argentina: Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional y roles de las Fuerzas Armadas
- Author:
- Jerónimo Morales Rins
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The definition of a National Security Strategy is essential to take a stand in a world of limited resources where competence for access, use, and appropriation of international common spaces is going to escalate. Added to the role of preserving jurisdictional spaces the Armed Forces should develop new roles emerging from the defense of national interest in spaces of diffuse sovereignty in a global scenario of deterioration of governance. The Armed Forces should rethink accordingly their structure, doctrine, organization and capabilities to adapt themselves to those scenarios, in accordance with the guidelines of the National Security Strategy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Military Strategy, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
29. The Fight against Organized Crime and Terrorism in Uruguay: A Challenge to Confront / La lucha contra el crimen organizado y el terrorismo en Uruguay: Un desafío a enfrentar
- Author:
- María del Rosario Rodríguez Cuitiño
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Organized crime has grown in the world and in the region, and its criminal operations do not escape Uruguay. Among the challenges facing the State, is the fight against organized crime, especially drug trafficking, money laundering and arms theft. Likewise, the links that may arise between organized crime and terrorism must be addressed as a threat. This work aims to reflect about these threats that affect the Security and Defense of the State and what has been their response to this problem that has been placed in a first plane in the public agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- South America and Uruguay
30. Politics, Police and Violence: The Regulation of Drug Trafficking in the Southern Cone / Política, policía y violencia: La regulación del Narcotráfico en el Cono Sur
- Author:
- Hernan Flom
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Despite being a transnational organized crime, drug trafficking has a local impact in terms of security and violence, which is typically managed by non-national state actors. This paper proposes that, given their juridical and material constraints, subnational state agencies, primarily police forces, regulate drug trafficking through a combination of toleration, repression and rent extraction. I also argue that greater coordination within law enforcement agencies at the subnational level leads to lower drug-related violence at the retail dealing level. I illustrate this argument with a subnational comparison of four cases in Argentina and Brazil during the last two decades.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Regulation, Violence, Drugs, Police, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, and South America