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131. Algeria: Unrest and Impasse in Kabylia

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late April 2001, lethal provocations by elements of Algeria's National Gendarmerie triggered protracted and deadly rioting in Kabylia. That the unrest from Kabylia's Black Spring continues to this day reflects the political system's nation-wide failure to adopt reforms that address its deficit of democratic representation. Neither the regime, nor the Kabyle political parties nor the so-called "Coordinations" that lead the protest movement in the region has to date proposed a serious formula for ending the impasse. The recent invitation by the new head of the government, Ahmed Ouyahia, to the protest movement to engage in dialogue over its platform is a welcome, if belated, development. But more will be needed to enable the Algerian polity to resolve what is much more a national problem than the local or ethnic disturbance it is often mistakenly portrayed as.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, and North Africa

132. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries

133. Bosnia's Brcko: Getting In, Getting On and Getting Out

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time to consider the future of Brcko District. In particular, it is time to chart an exit strategy for the supervisory regime that will serve both to preserve and extend its and the people of Brcko's accomplishments.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

134. Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the last decade, Taiwan has moved slowly but surely away from its commitment to the idea of 'one China', the proposition, long agreed on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, that Taiwan and the mainland are parts of one country. This has led to steadily mounting tension between Taiwan and China, for both of whom the issue goes to the heart of their sense of identity. While the prospect of an outbreak of war across the Strait remains distant, action is needed by all relevant parties to contain and reverse the situation.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

135. Kosovo's Ethnic Dilemma: The Need For A Civic Contract

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A simple but effective formula exists for peace in diverse societies. It consists of a civic contract: the government recognises and supports special rights for minorities, and minorities acknowledge the authority of the government. No elements of such a contract currently exist in Kosovo. The Albanians remain reluctant to support enhanced rights for the Serb minority, and the Serb community does not recognise the authority of Kosovo's institutions. Moreover, Kosovo is not a state and the future status of the province remains unresolved. After four years of United Nations authority in Kosovo, the foundation of this civic contract and of sustainable peace has not been laid.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

136. Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar is one of the ethnically most diverse countries in the world and throughout its existence as an independent state has experienced a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups seeking autonomy. While the world's attention for the past decade has focused on the struggle between the military government and the political opposition over national power, these underlying conflicts perhaps represent a more fundamental and intractable obstacle to peace, development and democracy.
Topic:
Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Central Asia

137. A Marriage Of Inconvenience: Montenegro 2003

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is time for new policies and new approaches on Montenegro. International engagement with that republic in recent years has brought significant positive results. It bolstered the pro-Western government of Djukanovic when it faced the threat from Milosevic. It has helped promote reforms that have set Montenegro on the way to becoming a modern democracy, with a market economy and an independent, effective criminal justice system. However, efforts to promote regional stability have been hampered by an unnecessary obsession with keeping Montenegro and Serbia in a single state. The international community's overriding interest in the region should be to find stable, long-term solutions. Cobbling together interim solutions that lack legitimacy for those who must implement them and that are unlikely, therefore, to be functional in practice, is not the way to build stability.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Eastern Europe

138. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

139. Red Alert In Jordan: Recurrent Unrest In Maan

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In successive incidents over eight days in November 2002, the city of Maan in the south of Jordan was the scene of intense armed clashes between security forces and elements of the Maani population. What began as a routine police operation rapidly escalated into incidents in which thousands of police, soldiers, and special forces fought militants in and around the town before subduing them. The clashes left six dead, many more wounded, over 150 arrested for questioning or prosecution, and property destroyed. As of early February 2003, over 45 people remained in custody and several others were still being sought.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia and Jordan

140. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia