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111. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

112. No Early Exit: NATO's Continuing Challenge in Bosnia

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO-led troops have played a vital part in securing the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) since their arrival in December 1995. Although authorised by the Dayton Peace Agreement to assist civilian implementation, the military is not obliged to do so. Yet, by evolving in response to developments, the mission has contributed - albeit belatedly and inconsistently - to international civilian efforts to construct a viable state. This shift was reflected in the change of the mission's name in 1996 from Implementation Force (IFOR) to Stabilisation Force (SFOR).
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

113. The Macedonian Question: Reform or Rebellion

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia's second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania

114. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

115. Turning Strife to Advantage: A Blueprint to Integrate the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The current attempts by the leadership of the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ) of Bosnia and Herzegovina to secede from the legal and constitutional structures of the state are the most serious challenge yet to the post-war order established by the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

116. Religion in Kosovo

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This report seeks to describe the current position of the three major religious communities in Kosovo. In part, it aims to clarify misconceptions about the involvement of religion in the Kosovo conflict. It also proposes some areas where religion might serve as a means to encourage reconciliation among the peoples of Kosovo.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

117. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

118. Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten Years after independence, Macedonia's two largest ethnic groups continue to lead very separate and distinct lives. The uneasy co-existence between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians has only just withstood the violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the continuing instability in Kosovo. Valid concerns about Macedonia's security are too often being used to justify postponing hard decisions about internal problems. Political leaders on both sides of the ethnic divide, while negotiating privately for piecemeal improvements, publicly cater to the more extreme nationalists in their respective parties, and positions are hardening. There is a continued reluctance to squarely confront the compromises that would legally safeguard Macedonia's multi-ethnic composition: if that reluctance is not soon overcome, Macedonia and the region face renewed instability.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

119. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

120. Albania: State of the Nation

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
During the spring of 1999, more than 450,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees flooded into Albania, many of them forcibly deported by Serb forces in Kosovo. Despite Albania's acute poverty, many Albanians opened their homes to provide shelter to the incoming refugees and the government spared no effort, organising humanitarian relief and putting the entire country at the disposal of NATO. As a result, in the eyes of its people, Albania has secured its position as the spiritual motherland of all ethnic Albanians, and as such expects to play a prominent role in future pan-Albanian aspirations.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania