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141. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rioting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

142. Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

143. The Philippines: Counter-insurgency vs. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
U.S.-backed security operations in the southern Philippines are making progress but are also confusing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency with dangerous implications for conflict in the region. The “Mindanao Model” – using classic counter-insurgency techniques to achieve counter-terror goals – has been directed against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and has helped force its fighters out of their traditional stronghold on Basilan. But it runs the risk of pushing them into the arms of the broader insurgencies in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The U.S. and the Philippines need to revive mechanisms to keep these conflicts apart and refocus energies on peace processes with these groups. That imperative has become particularly acute since the Malaysian government announced withdrawal, beginning on 10 May, from the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that has helped keep a lid on conflict since 2004. If renewed attention to a peace agreement is not forthcoming by the time the IMT mandate ends in August, hostilities could quickly resume.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Philippines

144. Russia's Dagestan: Conflict Causes - Europe Report N°192

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Caucasus (Russian) Republic of Dagestan has avoided large-scale violence despite its proximity to Chechnya but is now suffering from escalating street warfare. Several hundred local and federal security forces, administrators, politicians, ministers and journalists have been killed since 2003. The militant Islamist organisation Shariat Jamaat is responsible for much of the violence. Some of its leaders fought in Chechnya, but its extremist propaganda is also attracting unemployed Dagestani youth. This home-grown extremism, espousing jihadi theology and employing terrorist methods, is a new phenomenon. Police efforts to end the street war have been ineffective and in some instances counter-productive. While supporting loyal local elites, Moscow can help halt the increase in violence if it implements an efficient anti-corruption policy and reintegrates youth into the economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

145. Indonesia: Communal Tensions in Papua

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesian Papua has seen periodic clashes between pro-independence supporters and goverment forces, but conflict between Muslim and Christian communities could also erupt unless rising tensions are effectively managed. Violence was narrowly averted in Mano­kwari and Kaimana in West Papua province in 2007, but bitterness remains on both sides. The key fac­tors are continuing Muslim migration from elsewhere in Indonesia; the emergence of new, exclusivist groups in both religious communities that have hardened the perception of the other as enemy; the lasting impact of the Maluku conflict; and the impact of developments outside Papua. National and local officials need to ensure that no discriminatory local regulations are enacted, and no activities by exclusivist religious organisations are supported by government funds.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, Nationalism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

146. Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

147. Reunifying Cyprus: The Best Chance Yet

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A new peace process in Cyprus offers the best opportunity in decades to solve the intractable division of the island. The turnabout is largely due to the surprise election of Demetris Christofias to the Greek Cypriot presidency. He, together with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat, are demonstrating political will to make the current UN-mediated talks succeed. Key players like Turkey are being constructive. The outside world, particularly the UN and European Union (EU), needs to fully engage in support of a comprehensive settlement that will improve Cypriot security and prosperity, free Turkey to continue its movement into Europe and overcome a problem that is increasingly damaging to EU policy in the region and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

148. Sierra Leone: A New Era of Reform?

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sierra Leone has made much progress since the civil war ended in 2002, but a number of social and economic time bombs must still be defused if an enduring peace is to be built. The 2007 elections, in which Ernest Bai Koroma won the presidency and his All People's Congress (APC) wrested the parliament from the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP), restored legitimacy to the electoral process. Koroma's reform agenda promises much but must overcome big challenges. The majority of the population lives in abject poverty, and an ever-growing army of unemployed, socially alienated youth is a perennial threat to security. Patronage networks and identity politics, though evolving, continue to constrain government decisions. The new government faces a fundamental political challenge in building public confidence in its agenda, while donor support to post-war reconstruction is gradually scaled down. It needs to do more than call for “attitudinal change” and a renewed “social con- tract” if it is to improve accountability and combat corruption. The UN Peacebuilding Commission can make a major contribution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

149. Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom - the piracy phenomenon - instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors - including the U.S. and Ethiopia - accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

150. Central African Republic: Untangling the Political Dialogue

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A aucun moment depuis le coup d'Etat du 15 mars 2003, qui a porté au pouvoir l'actuel président François Bozizé, le risque d'une généralisation de la violence en Centrafrique n'a été aussi grand qu'aujourd'hui. Alors que l'ouverture d'un dialogue politique inclusif le 8 décembre – initialement prévue pour juin 2008 – continue de se négocier pied à pied, tant le régime en place que les principales forces d'opposition prépa- rent, en fait, le recours à la lutte armée comme ultima ratio d'une sortie de crise. Une réelle démocratisation et une réforme de l'Etat semblent possibles si les acteurs centrafricains arrivent à surmonter leurs désaccords d'une manière consensuelle et s'abstiennent de recourir à la violence pour accéder au pouvoir ou pour le garder. Le dialogue politique incl usif doit impérativement être recentré sur l'organisation des élections en 2010 et la négociation d'un mécanisme crédible de justice transitionnelle. Afin d'éviter une nouvelle prise de pouvoir par la force, le gouvernement centrafricain doit conduire à terme la réfo rme du secteur de sécurité et permettre un processus équitable d'intégration des forces rebelles dans les services de sécurité.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa