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1. Ending the Dangerous Standoff in Southern Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Hundreds of troops loyal to the Federal Government of Somalia, on one side, and Jubaland regional state, on the other, are locked in a tense showdown in the Gedo region of southern Somalia. Clashes between them have already resulted in fatalities and uprooted thousands from their homes. Why does it matter? Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, which are both troop contributors to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, seek to avoid direct confrontation but respectively support the opposing federal and Jubaland administrations. The situation plays into the hands of the Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency, which is further entrenching its presence in Gedo. What should be done? The African Union, along with the eastern African sub-regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and Somalia’s bilateral partners, should lean on Ethiopia and Kenya to push the two sides to de-escalate tensions. Talks would allow the sides to refocus energies on stemming Al-Shabaab’s gains.
Topic:
Conflict, Negotiation, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and African Union
Political Geography:
Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

2. How to Shield Education from Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s North East

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Jihadists have repeatedly attacked schools in north-eastern Kenya in the last eighteen months. In response, the government has shuttered many schools and pulled most teachers out of a long-neglected region that is one of Al-Shabaab’s main recruiting centres outside Somalia. Why does it matter? The education crisis adds to an already existing sense of marginalisation in north-eastern Kenya. Thousands of out-of-school youngsters could constitute an attractive pool of recruits for Al-Shabaab, which is engaged in a long-term campaign to deepen its foothold in the region. What should be done? The Kenyan government should afford the north east’s residents, including police reservists, a greater role in tackling militancy and revive community-centred efforts that to some degree succeeded in rolling back Al-Shabaab in the past. It should also restore learning by providing stopgap funding so local administrations can hire replacement teachers.
Topic:
Security, Education, Violence, Islamism, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

3. Kenya: Al-Shabaab – Closer to Home

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One year after the Westgate Mall terrorist attack in Nairobi, Al–Shabaab is more entrenched and a graver threat to Kenya. But the deeper danger is less in the long established terrorist cells that perpetrated the act–horrific as it was–and more in managing and healing the rising communal tensions and historic divides that Al- Shabaab violence has deliberately agitated, most recently in Lamu county. To prevent extremists from further articulating local grievances with global jihad, the Kenyan government–including county governments most affected-opposition politicians and Kenyan Muslim leaders, must work together to address historical grievances of marginalisation among Muslim communities in Nairobi, the coast and the north east, and institutional discrimination at a national level, as well as ensuring that counter-terrorism operations are better targeted at the perpetrators and do not persecute wider ethnic and faith communities they have purposefully infiltrated.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Kenya

4. Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's growing Islamist radicalism is spilling over into Kenya. The militant Al-Shabaab movement has built a cross-border presence and a clandestine support network among Muslim populations in the north east and Nairobi and on the coast, and is trying to radicalise and recruit youth from these communities, often capitalising on long-standing grievances against the central state. This problem could grow more severe with the October 2011 decision by the Kenyan government to intervene directly in Somalia. Radicalisation is a grave threat to Kenya's security and stability. Formulating and executing sound counter-radicalisation and de-radicalisation policies before it is too late must be a priority. It would be a profound mistake, however, to view the challenge solely through a counter-terrorism lens.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

5. Kenya: Impact of the ICC Proceedings

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although the mayhem following the disputed December 2007 elections seemed an exception, violence has been a com­mon feature of Kenya's politics since the introduction of a multiparty system in 1991. Yet, the number of people killed and displaced following that disputed vote was unprecedented. To provide justice to the victims, combat pervasive political impunity and deter future violence, the International Criminal Court (ICC) brought two cases against six suspects who allegedly bore the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence. These cases have enormous political consequences for both the 2012 elections and the country's stability. During the course of the year, rulings and procedures will inevitably either lower or increase com­munal tensions. If the ICC process is to contribute to the deterrence of future political violence in Kenya, the court and its friends must explain its work and limitations better to the public. Furthermore, Kenya's government must complement that ICC process with a national process aimed at countering impunity and punishing ethnic hate speech and violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

6. The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision in October 2011 to deploy thousands of troops in Somalia's Juba Valley to wage war on Al-Shabaab is the biggest security gamble Kenya has taken since independence, a radical departure for a country that has never sent its soldiers abroad to fight. Operation Linda Nchi (Protect the Country) was given the go-ahead with what has shown itself to be inadequate political, diplomatic and military preparation; the potential for getting bogged down is high; the risks of an Al-Shabaab retaliatory terror campaign are real; and the prospects for a viable, extremist- free and stable polity emerging in the Juba Valley are slim. The government is unlikely to heed any calls for a troop pullout: it has invested too much, and pride is at stake. Financial and logistical pressures will ease once its force becomes part of the African Union (AU) mission in Somalia (AMISOM). But it should avoid prolonged “occupation” of southern Somalia, lest it turn local Somali opinion against the intervention and galvanise an armed resistance that could be co-opted by Al-Shabaab, much as happened to Ethiopia during its 2006-2009 intervention.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Somalia

7. Kenya in Crisis

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the announcement of the contested presidential election results on 30 December 2007 giving a second term to Mwai Kibaki, Kenya has been in its worst political crisis since independence. Over 1,000 people have died and 300,000 have been displaced in violence with a serious ethnic character. As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan conducts negotiations for a political settlement, calm has partly returned, but the situation remains highly volatile. To address the causes of the crisis, it will not be enough for the Annan team to broker a deal on the mechanics of a transitional arrangement between political opponents and schedule negotiations on a reform agenda. A sustainable settlement must address in detail a program of power sharing, constitutional and legal reform and economic policies that convinces the drivers of violence to disarm. For negotiations to succeed, the international community must enhance its pressure, including aid conditionality and threats and application of targeted sanctions against spoilers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and United Nations

8. Darfur Rising: Sudan's New Crisis

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan, where prospects for peace had looked so promising for much of 2003, has become a potential horror story in 2004. The rapid onset of war in its western region of Darfur has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises -- thousands dead and some 830,000 uprooted from homes. Meanwhile, the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority for Development) peace talks in Naivasha, Kenya between the government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) threaten to deadlock. It is urgent that these talks succeed and that, simultaneously, a parallel process begins to address both the humanitarian and political crises in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Human Rights, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Sudan

9. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

10. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia