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41. Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun

Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects for an enduring peace in Afghanistan are still fragile despite progress since the ouster of the Taliban in December 2001. A key obstacle is the perception of many ethnic Pashtuns that they lack meaningful representation in the central government, particularly in its security institutions. Other factors contributing to growing alienation from the Bonn political process include continued violence against Pashtuns in parts of the north and west, heavy-handed search operations and collaboration with abusive commanders by the U.S.-led Coalition, and impediments to trade in the southern and eastern provinces. Unless measures are taken to address these grievances and ensure that a more representative government emerges from the forthcoming election, there will be a greater likelihood of the political process ending in failure.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

42. Indonesia: Managing Decentralisation and Conflict in South Sulawesi

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What has been the impact of Indonesia's radical decentralisation program, launched on 1 January 2001, on conflict prevention and management? This case study of the district of Luwu in South Sulawesi finds results that have thus far been positive. But it remains an open question whether these results are sustainable – and whether Luwu's success is transferable to other parts of the country.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Indonesia

43. Central Asia: Islam and the State

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To avoid future instability, Central Asian states need to re-examine their policies towards Islam and step back from reliance on repression. Seventy years of Soviet rule in Central Asia did not crush Islam but it had a profound effect in secularising society and political elites. Nevertheless, after independence there was a surge of interest in Islam, including the emergence of political Islamist groups seeking to challenge the secular nature of these new states. The heavy-handed repression of early manifestations of political Islam led to confrontation, violence, and the appearance of extremist and terrorist groups.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Central Asia

44. Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Hizbut-Tahrir al-Islami (The Party of Islamic Liberation) stands apart from better known radical Islamist movements by its apparent opposition to the use of violence. But its views are highly radical, advocating the overthrow of governments throughout the Muslim world and their replacement by an Islamic state in the form of a recreated Caliphate. It has grown quickly in Central Asia and been met with a heavy-handed repression that threatens to radicalise members still further and sow the seeds of greater Islamist extremism in the region.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Central Asia

45. Nepal: Obstacles to Peace

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite King Gyanendra's appointment of a new prime minister in June 2003, Nepal remains in a deepening political crisis. By turns conciliatory and confrontational, its royalist government, the Maoist insurgents and the recently ousted political parties have all proven capable of derailing the peace process if their concerns are not addressed. With political parties shut out of peace talks and the palace continuing efforts to keep them off balance and marginalised, party activists have increasingly taken to the streets. This has left the king in an awkward position: wishing to retain control of the government without appearing to be doing so. Such an approach is ultimately untenable, as the controversial appointment of Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa makes clear.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Central Asia

46. Afghanistan's Flawed Constitutional Process

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan is stumbling on its way to a new constitution. The document that must express the values and aspirations of a people may lack widespread legitimacy because it has been drafted in a secretive and unaccountable manner. International efforts to promote public education and consultation have been inadequate. The Transitional Administration (TA) and the UN are now heading down a well-trodden path in Afghan history whereby a constitution is proclaimed but no one, let alone those in control of state power, has any incentive to respect it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

47. Myanmar Backgrounder: Ethnic Minority

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar is one of the ethnically most diverse countries in the world and throughout its existence as an independent state has experienced a complex set of conflicts between the central government and ethnic minority groups seeking autonomy. While the world's attention for the past decade has focused on the struggle between the military government and the political opposition over national power, these underlying conflicts perhaps represent a more fundamental and intractable obstacle to peace, development and democracy.
Topic:
Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Central Asia

48. Central Asia: A Last Chance for Change

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Annual Meeting of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) commencing on 3 May 2003 is an opportunity to assess frankly and honestly the records of the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. If the chance is grasped to push for reform in a more coordinated and concerted way, the controversial decision to hold this meeting in Tashkent will prove well justified. If it is not, and any impression is left that the location of the meeting is a mark of approval for Uzbekistan's current policies, there is a major risk of further deterioration in both the economic and security climate in Central Asia.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

49. Tajikistan: A Roadmap for Development

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tajikistan's experience in ending a brutal civil war and integrating opposition factions into government has won deserved praise. Major advances have been made in security around the country, and stability has improved significantly over the past two years. Yet the economic situation remains dire; Tajikistan is one of the twenty poorest countries in the world. Widespread poverty continues to fuel a major drugtrafficking business and provides potential breeding grounds for Islamist militant or other extremist groups. There is a serious need to use development assistance to build a viable state in this geopolitically vital part of Central Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Tajikistan

50. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban