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61. Burundi: du boycott électoral à l'impasse politique

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Six mois après la nouvelle victoire électorale du Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie et Forces de défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD), le Burundi s'enfonce dans une impasse politique qui pourrait se transformer en une crise majeure susceptible de remettre en cause dix ans de progrès. En effet, au lieu de consolider la démocratie, les élections communale, parlementaire et présidentielle de 2010 ont abouti à la marginalisation de l'opposition, au p assage dans la clandestinité des Forces nationales de libération (FNL) et à l'émergence d'une nouvelle rébellion. Combinée à un système de gouvernance faible, cette évolution pourrait conduire à un recul démocratique. Seul s le rétablissement du dialogue politique entre le gouvernement et l'opposition, la sortie de la clandestinité pour les FNL et le renforcement des institutions démocratiques sont de nature à inverser cette dangereuse évolution.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Africa

62. Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has squandered the goodwill and support it received and achieved little of significance in the two years it has been in office. It is inept, increasingly corrupt and hobbled by President Sharif's weak leadership. So far, every effort to make the administration modestly functional has come unstuck. The new leaner cabinet looks impressive on paper but, given divisive politics and the short timeframe, is unlikely to deliver significant progress on key transitional objectives, such as stabilising Somalia and delivering a permanent constitution before August 2011, when the TFG's official mandate ends. Although the Transitional Federal Parliament unilaterally has awarded itself a further three-year-extension, urgent attention needs to be given to the government's structural flaws that stymie peacebuilding in central and south Somalia. If the TFG does not make serious progress on correcting its deficiencies by August, the international community should concentrate its support on the more effective local entities, until a more appropriate and effective national government is negotiated.
Topic:
Political Violence, Government, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

63. Nigeria's Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The April 2011 general elections – if credible and peaceful – would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democratic trajectory. Anything similar to the 2007 sham, however, could deepen the vulnerability of West Africa's largest country to conflict, further alienate citizens from the political elite and reinforce violent groups' narratives of bad governance and exclusion. Flawed polls, especially if politicians stoke ethnic or religious divides, may ignite already straining fault lines, as losers protest results. Despite encouraging electoral preparations, serious obstacles remain. Many politicians still seem determined to use violence, bribery or rigging to win the spoils of office. In the remaining weeks, national institutions, led by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), should redouble efforts to secure the poll's integrity, tackle impunity for electoral crimes, increase transparency and bolster safeguards, including by publicising results polling station by polling station and rejecting bogus returns.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

64. Le Nord-ouest du Tchad: la prochaine zone à haut risque ?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis plus de cinq ans, alors que la rébellion armée de l'Est du Tchad et la crise du Darfour focalisent l'attention, le Nord-ouest du pays a suscité peu d'intérêts. Cependant, l'ampleur de plus en plus grande du trafic international de drogues et du terrorisme dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, l'émergence d'un islamisme combattant dans les pays voisins, l'intensification des ressentiments intercommunautaires et l'érosion des mécanismes de justice traditionnelle, la sous-administration et l'abandon qui caractérisent la politique gouvernementale à l'égard de cette région, risquent de devenir des facteurs de déstabilisation. Les autorités tchadiennes doivent changer de mode de gouvernance dans cette région et désamorcer les différentes sources de tensions ou les risques de déstabilisation avant que ceux-ci n'atteignent un seuil critique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

65. Central African Republic: Keeping the Dialogue Alive

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The failure of President François Bozizé and his close circle to follow through with many of the concessions agreed on during the Inclusive Political Dialogue risks exacerbating the many conflicts in the Central African Republic (CAR) and stalling national reconciliation. Those December 2008 talks made a valuable contribution to both reducing levels of violence and shaping the long-term reform agenda. The promised integration of rebel leaders into civilian political life, the precedent of decision-making by consensus and a concrete set of agreements that included rebel disarmament and security sector reform were welcome steps towards greater stability. To ensure these gains are not undone by another political crisis, however, the president must abandon the uncompromising attitude he displayed through much of 2009 and the government must quickly resolve new conflicts in the north east and prepare credible elections. Otherwise, donors should suspend financial support to a regime that is largely dependent on foreign aid.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa

66. Zimbabwe: Political and Security Challenges to the Transition

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe enters its second year under a unity government, the challenges to democratic transformation have come into sharp focus. Despite reasonable progress in restoring political and social stability, ending widespread repression and stabilising the economy since February 2009, major threats could still derail the reform process. In particular, resistance of intransigent and still powerful security sector leaders and fractious in-fighting between and within the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU-PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) must be addressed now. South Africa and other countries in southern Africa – who monitor the accord that guides the transition – must press the parties, and particularly President Robert Mugabe, to see the transition through to a successful conclusion. Donors should back their efforts.
Topic:
Security and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

67. Eritrea: The Siege State

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eritrea has been deeply troubled since independence in 1991. Following the devastating war with Ethiopia (1998-2000), an authoritarian, militarised regime has further tightened political space, tolerating neither opposition nor dissent. Relations are difficult with the region and the wider international community. At African Union (AU) behest, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions in 2009 for its support of the Somali Islamic insurgency. It has become, in effect, a siege state, whose government is suspicious of its own population, neighbours and the wider world. Economically crippled at birth, it is a poor country from which tens of thousands of youths are fleeing, forming large asylum-seeking communities in Europe and North America. But Eritrea is an extreme reflection of its region's rough political environment, not its sole spoiler. More effort to understand the roots of its suspicions and greater engagement rather than further isolation would be a more promising international prescription for dealing with the genuine risks it represents.
Topic:
Islam, United Nations, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, North America, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

68. Guinea: Reforming the Army

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After decades of bad governance and misuse, the armed forces are a potential source of instability which could still throw Guinea and the region into chaos. At the very least, if not reformed thoroughly, they will continue to pose a threat to democratic civilian rule. The recent establishment of a transitional government and the ongoing, although fragile, electoral process are a significant opportunity. Getting army reform wrong could have disastrous consequences for the country's political future. Getting it right entails numerous technical challenges, redefining the relationship of the armed forces with civilian power and addressing the critical issue of military financing, in order to create disciplined, effective and affordable armed forces. The suspension of the second round of the presidential elections, originally scheduled for 19 September, has heightened tension. Though the army has remained neutral, fears remain that if the election is not completed successfully and without excessive delay, it may seize the opportunity to intervene again. This would be a major setback to any prospect of medium-term reform, which requires respect for civilian rule and oversight. The army's well-deserved reputation for indiscipline and resistance to democratic civilian rule is a product of its troubled past. The country's first two presidents both manipulated the armed forces to their own political ends, allowing insubordination to develop, and bought off senior ranks with patronage opportunities. Mutinies over poor conditions, and waves of irregular recruitment characterised the last years of President Lansana Conté. The junta that took over on his death in December 2008 further exacerbated the situation in the military. Its leader, Dadis Camara, used the army against political opponents, fostered tension between the junta and the rest of the armed forces and recruited ethnic militia.
Topic:
Corruption
Political Geography:
Africa

69. Madagascar : la crise A un tournant critique ?

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En mars 2009, acculé par des manifestations, ainsi que par une mutinerie de l'armée, l'ancien président Marc Ravalomanana remet le pouvoir à un directoire militaire, qui le transmet immédiatement au maire de la capitale de l'époque, Andry Rajoelina, meneur des mouvements de contestation. 1 A la tête de l'Etat depuis lors, la Haute au- torité de la transition (HAT) monopolise le pouvoir, alors qu'une opposition structurée en « mouvances » représen- tant les anciens présidents du pays réclame une gestion inclusive et consensuelle de la transition defait, ouverte par la chute de Ravalomanana et l'installation au pouvoir de la HAT. 2 Ce mode de gestion av ait fait l'objet d'accords en 2009 à Maputo et à Addis-Abeba entre les quatre chefs de mouvances, mais ceuxci ont été annulés de manière unilatérale par le président de la HAT.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

70. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo