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2. Post-Crimea Shift in EU-Russia Relations: From Fostering Interdependence to Managing Vulnerabilities
- Author:
- Kristi Raik and András Rácz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The relationship between the EU and Russia is characterised by a considerable degree of interdependence. In the 1990s and 2000s, the EU’s approach to Russia was based on the expectation that economic ties and interaction in various fields would contribute to regional stability and security and possibly even the democratisation of Russia. However, looking at the relationship today, one has to admit that the expected positive effects of interdependence have not materialised. Since 2014, the conflict over Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions have pushed the Europeans to reassess their approach and put more emphasis on reducing the vulnerabilities created by mutual ties, notably (but not only) in the field of energy. Russia, for its part, has been keen to reduce its dependence on Europe, for instance in the financial sector and in respect of food imports. As a result, the preconditions for developing the EU-Russia relationship in accordance with the logic of positive interdependence have weakened further.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine
3. To the Seas Again Maritime Defence and Deterrence in the Baltic Region
- Author:
- Henrich Lange
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This report concerns the maritime aspects of defence and deterrence in the Baltic Sea region. Access to the Baltic Sea is of vital economic interest to its littoral states, including Russia. Large numbers of vessels convey substantial trade volumes, including energy products, through its waters each day, while a significant number of critical infrastructure links lie below its surface. The operating environment is complex. The Baltic Sea is confined and shallow. Its winding shape includes several bottlenecks, and its numerous islands confine major shipping to certain channels. Its unusual hydrology, frequent adverse weather conditions and ice, and the presence of large quantities of discarded ordnance complicate naval operations. The short distance of the sea from airfields and the potential operating locations of land-based military capability, including electronic warfare and cyber assets, further complicates the employment of naval force. This environment demands a particular set of professional skills and knowledge.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Baltic Sea
4. Going Past Monopoly: Developing a Balanced Baltic Sea Regional Gas Market
- Author:
- Emmet Tuohy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- In the last half-decade, the three Baltic states have made dramatic progress towards diversifying their energy supplies, especially of natural gas. This progress—brought about thanks to remarkable political will as well as improved regional cooperation—has resulted in considerable economic benefit while decreasing the three countries’ vulnerability to outside pressure. Yet, much remains to be done in order to complete the three countries’ internal markets.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Baltic Sea
5. Russians in Europe: Nobody’s Tool – The Examples of Finland, Germany and Estonia
- Author:
- Anna Tiido
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This analysis calls for European governments to pay greater attention to the resilience of their societies, starting with the integration of minorities. It is also important to continue work to increase awareness of Russian influence. The paper analyses the issue of Russian speakers in the EU based on the example of Finland, Germany and Estonia. Although the Kremlin’s “Russian World” policy sees all the people connected to Russia as a homogeneous group, the minority groups analysed are quite diverse. The media preferences and habits of Russian-speakers are connected to language, naturally, and these communities are one of the targets of Russia’s actions. At the same time, Russia also targets non-Russian audiences. It promotes propaganda that is tailor-made for specific countries, based on existing conditions. The grievances of Russian-speakers are one such tool, but they constitute one of many available—and not the main one.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Integration, Social Cohesion, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Finland, Germany, and Estonia
6. The Russian Orthodox Church: Faith, Power and Conquest
- Author:
- James Sherr and Kaarel Kullamaa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Until recently, the Russian Orthodox Church was a subject that interested few outside expert circles. That dramatically changed in late 2018 when the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople granted autocephaly (independence) to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. The reverberations of this decision — religious, political and geopolitcal — underscore the importance that the Church once again plays in Russian policy. In this report, we consider the role that the Russian Orthodox Church has played as an adjunct to an imperial policy stretching back over many centuries. Today, the Russian Federation has a secular constitution. But as much as in tsarist times, the Church regards itself as one of the pillars of Russia’s political order. As much as in the time of Catherine the Great, it is also a protagonist in its wars of identity and the rewriting of the history of former imperial subjects whose experience of the relationship between church and state is different from Russia’s. This diversity is well brought out in the report’s two case studies, Ukraine and Estonia. In both countries, local Orthodox churches embodied distinctive cultural traditions and values until they felt the full force of Russian control, tsarist and Soviet. Since 2014, Russia’s hybrid war in Ukraine has revived many historical controversies. It also has raised entirely new security concerns about the borderline between faith and politics. These concerns are summarised at the conclusion of the report, which closes with a section on policy recommendations.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, Religion, International Affairs, Governance, and Christianity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Estonia
7. The Nordic-Baltic Region in the EU 27 – Time for New Strategic Cooperation
- Author:
- Piret Kuusik
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The Brexit process is changing the balance of power and coalition politics in the European Union. This report analyzes the shared interests and aims of the six Nordic and Baltic member states (NB6, consisting of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden) in the EU, focusing on three broad areas: open society, open economy and shared security. The authors argue that, in a changing Union and an increasingly volatile global context, it is time for the Nordic-Baltic member states to cooperate more strategically in matters where common positions can be identified, such as protection of shared values, reform of the eurozone, free trade, digitalisation and regional security. Their cooperation needs to be flexible and open to like-minded countries beyond the NB6 group. One of the groupings that has received much limelight is the new ‘Hanseatic League’, consisting of the Nordic and Baltic member states, the Netherlands and Ireland. The authors highlight the limited nature and flexible format of this grouping. The report ends with a set of policy recommendations regarding future Nordic-Baltic cooperation in the EU.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Baltic Sea
8. Preparing for Cyber Conflict – Case Studies of Cyber Command
- Author:
- Piret Pernik
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This is the first publicly available comparative study of the military cyber organisations in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway. The study examines strategic guidelines, political authorisation of international deployments, organisational set-up, the chain of command, and key functions of three categories of military cyberspace forces: cyber commands (Estonia, the Netherlands, Norway), military cyber services (Germany), and cyber defence divisions (Finland). The report discusses rationales for the establishment of each specific organisational set-up, and considers the advantages and disadvantages of these different models. It also presents policy recommendations in these areas (political authorisation, organisation, chain of command, functions)
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. Dead Man Walking: Time to Put the INF Treaty to Rest?
- Author:
- Ian Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- On 11-12 July 2018, the heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Alliance met in Brussels. Political and public attention centred almost exclusively on the Allies’ defence expenditure, the issue of spending 2% of national GDPs on defence, and President Donald Trump’s criticism of Canada and European nations. The political agenda of the summit, however, and the range of decisions taken there, was much broader and much more substantial. It was the third summit in a row since 2014 that dealt with NATO’s far-reaching and long-term adaptation to the fundamentally changed security environment since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the illegal occupation of Crimea, as well as the emergence of the terrorist organisation ISIL/Daesh. The Wales summit of 2014 adopted the Readiness Action Plan (RAP) as an initial response to Russia’s aggressive posture.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10. Challenges of Real National Defence
- Author:
- Jonatan Vseviov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Jonatan Vesviov is the Estonian Ambassador to the US. Before this he worked in the Estonian Ministry of Defence for 10 years. He served as Director of the Policy Planning Department, the ministry’s representative in the Washington embassy, acting and later substantive Undersecretary for Defence Planning, and for two and a half years, Permanent Secretary. This decade saw tumultuous developments in the international situation—the Russian offensive against Georgia, intervention in Syria, the occupation and annexation of the Crimea and ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine in the east of the country. Reorganisation within NATO to respond to Russian behaviour, part of which was the deployment of allied forces to the eastern border of the Alliance, also occurred during this period.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus