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2. The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict
- Author:
- Ivo Juurvee and Anna-Mariita Mattiisen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This report revisits the spring 2007 crisis in Estonia, centred on the World War II memorial known as the Bronze Soldier statue. The crisis is well-known both in Estonia and abroad. It was one of the first wake-up calls to the cooling of relations between Russia and the West. It also involved the first use of wide-ranging cyber-attacks against a state.
- Topic:
- Security, History, Cybersecurity, Resilience, Hybrid Warfare, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Estonia
3. China’s Influence Activities in Estonia
- Author:
- Frank Jüris
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- China’s influence activities aim to create a positive image of China and to counter any kind of criticism. Influence activities in countries with big Chinese communities can mobilise the Chinese diaspora for the party’s benefit—there are plenty of examples from Finland and Sweden. But where this is not possible, propaganda work may fall to the CPC Central Committee’s International Liaison Department, which is responsible for exchanges with foreign parties. The International Liaison Department has been active in its interactions with Estonian politicians. Today, three former government ministers work for Powerhouse, which offers lobbying services for the Chinese company, Huawei. To a large extent, China’s influence activities in Estonia have so far gone unnoticed. This article aims to fill this gap.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and 5G
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Estonia, and Baltic States
4. Democracy, ‘Alternative Reality’ and Estonia’s Resilience
- Author:
- Dmitri Teperik
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The brief explores reasons why the concerns, grievances and perceptions of all vulnerable societal groups should receive adequate attention if further harm inflicted by fact-free and/or fact-twisting ‘alternative realities’ is to be averted. As some intergroup differences fall notably along the lines related to age, levels of educational attainment, overall welfare and life satisfaction, perceptions of inclusion, and geography, the pervasiveness of misconceptions and social myths as well as their impact on the attitudes, perceptions, and behaviour of citizens can be considered as reliable indicators of societal resilience in Estonia.
- Topic:
- Politics, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Estonia and Baltic States
5. Preparing for Crises in Estonia: Improvement Options for Civilian Food and Emergency Goods Supplies
- Author:
- Ivo Juurvee and Ramon Loik
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- The Estonian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications and the Estonian Ministry of Rural Affairs commissioned the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) to compile a list of civilian food and emergency goods supplies, estimated average amounts of supplies at home and in stores, and calculations for the price of national emergency goods supplies and logistics. In addition to the quantities of food and industrial goods, the contracting authorities were interested in the legal issues of stockpiling and the possibilities of storage and distribution. Water, fuel, and drug supplies were not covered by the studies. In the course of the research, the experts also reviewed the solutions of Finland, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Lithuania and other countries and took into account the recommendations of international organisations. The experience of other countries suggests that involving businesses and maintaining the operation of trading networks in the event of a crisis are of key importance. It is reasonable to organise logistics centrally, as crisis transport cannot be ordered separately by ministries and local authorities. Recommendations for the division of tasks between the state and local governments: State-level tasks: Ensure that the goods required in a crisis situation exist through purchases or pre-contracts. Ensure the timely delivery of required food products and emergency goods to distribution points in municipalities (e.g. through pre-contracts with logistics companies). Support local authorities in planning the distribution of goods and test their preparedness by organising special exercises. Local government-level tasks (preparations for distribution of goods): Have an overview of the population and where people are. Coordinate with the state-level to identify the locations of existing and potential additional distribution points that should be situated in the vicinity of shopping centres or other locations people are familiar with visiting. Plan the local distribution of supplies and find relevant partners.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Food, Crisis Management, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Estonia and Baltic States
6. Dilemmas of Arms Control: Meeting the Interests of NATO’s North-Eastern Flank
- Author:
- Artur Kacprzyk and Lukasz Kulesa
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- While the countries of NATO’s north-eastern flank—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland—are correctly putting emphasis in their security policy on strengthening deterrence, they need to take a more proactive stance on arms control. Although current prospects are not promising in the light of Russian violations and circumventions of existing treaties, demand for greater engagement with Russia on arms control is growing among NATO nations. Without a constructive input from the flank countries, NATO’s arms-control agenda and the actions of individual European Allies could become detached from deterrence efforts and weaken NATO cohesion. The north-eastern countries should thus identify and promote balanced solutions that can be used to increase the region’s security.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia
7. Estonia in the UN Security Council: The Importance and Limits of European Cooperation
- Author:
- Kristi Raik
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- In January 2020, Estonia became a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for a two-year term. The international environment, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly challenging for multilateral cooperation and a rules-based global order. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the lack of global leadership, previously provided by the US, and inability of the UNSC to mobilise international cooperation. In recent years, European cooperation in the UNSC has increased, while transatlantic tensions and great-power rivalry have grown. Estonia has taken an active role in shaping the joint positions of EU states in the UNSC, for example on issues related to the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), Ukraine and Syria. The case of the MEPP in particular illustrates that it has become more difficult to reconcile good transatlantic relations with a consistent commitment to the EU, multilateralism and international law. It is in Estonia’s interest to work towards as much consensus as possible between Europe and the US and, on issues where this is not feasible, to avoid exacerbating the tensions. At the same time, Estonia has a strong interest in being consistent on international law, even if at times this means disagreeing with its most important security ally. The dilemma for Estonia and the EU as a whole is how to work to maintain the rules-based order while simultaneously adapting to its erosion and change. The EU should move on from joint statements to more action and the generation of a real ability to enforce international law and resolve conflicts, especially in its own neighbourhood. The need for Europe’s active role in tackling global problems has also been evident during the COVID-19 crisis.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, United Nations, European Union, UN Security Council, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Estonia
8. Estonia’s Partners in the EU Coalition Machinery: Maximising Influence in the EU through Coalition-building
- Author:
- Kristi Raik and Josef Janning
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This policy paper examines Estonia’s partners in the European Union with the aim of identifying ways to enhance its influence on policy-making. Effective coalition-building is also important for the EU as a whole, since it can improve the Union’s capacity to take decisions and act. The paper highlights that: Estonia has a relatively strong position in the EU, considering its small size and limited resources. It is particularly well-connected with the Nordic-Baltic partners and should seek ways to use this grouping more effectively as a means to reach out to larger member states and shape decisions in the Union. The main challenge is to build stronger links with France and Germany, something that has become all the more important due to Brexit. Teaming up with other countries that are better connected to Berlin and Paris, such as Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium, is one way to pursue this goal. It is too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the latest change of government in Estonia on the country’s influence and image among partners in the EU. However, the research interviews show some indications of a weakened position. Estonia should avoid losing its reputation as a results-oriented member state that takes into consideration the priorities of others while pursuing its own interests in a constructive manner.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Estonia
9. Estonian-French Defence Cooperation – Where Estonian Pragmatism Meets French Vision
- Author:
- Kalev Stoicescu and Emile LeBrun
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu and Non-Resident Fellow Maxime Lebrun made a thorough analysis of the defence cooperation and partnership between Estonia and France. They concluded that this successful relationship, which evolved in a short time literally starting from mutual neglect, is based both on pragmatism and political vision. It also serves as a very good example of fruitful cooperation between rather different European partners in terms of size, military capabilities, history and culture, geography etc. France contributes to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence, a vital deterrence measure for the Baltic states and Poland, and Estonia participates actively in French, EU and UN operations in sub-Saharan Africa. In this context, France promotes the European Intervention Initiative (in which Estonia participates) and the concept of European Strategic Autonomy (Estonia, as well as other Allies, are not yet convinced of its aims and utility). The analysis offers a comprehensive overview on the matter for those who are interested in the defence policy of Estonia and France, and the development of the defence dimension of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Estonia
10. Russians in Europe: Nobody’s Tool – The Examples of Finland, Germany and Estonia
- Author:
- Anna Tiido
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This analysis calls for European governments to pay greater attention to the resilience of their societies, starting with the integration of minorities. It is also important to continue work to increase awareness of Russian influence. The paper analyses the issue of Russian speakers in the EU based on the example of Finland, Germany and Estonia. Although the Kremlin’s “Russian World” policy sees all the people connected to Russia as a homogeneous group, the minority groups analysed are quite diverse. The media preferences and habits of Russian-speakers are connected to language, naturally, and these communities are one of the targets of Russia’s actions. At the same time, Russia also targets non-Russian audiences. It promotes propaganda that is tailor-made for specific countries, based on existing conditions. The grievances of Russian-speakers are one such tool, but they constitute one of many available—and not the main one.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, Integration, Social Cohesion, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Finland, Germany, and Estonia