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51. THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE ARCTIC

Author:
Sandro Knezović
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The climate change at the global level has brought the new dynamics to the international relations in general and some regions in particular. This is so especially in the Arctic, where ice melting changes the geostrategic posture of the region, transforming it from a marginal zone with hostile climate into an area of growing strategic competition. ...the Arctic, where ice melting changes the geostrategic posture of the region, transforming it from a marginal zone with hostile climate into an area of growing strategic competition. Actually, the pace of ice melting, that was almost unthinkable a decade ago, is re�lective of the increasing geostrategic signi�icance of the Arctic. Namely, around 1 million square meters melt every year during the last decade, leaving the ice cap at less than half of its size from the mid-20th century. It is also estimated that almost a half of the Arctic permafrost (permanent ice) has already disappeared, which means that it is likely that the ocean will be seasonally ice-free in 20-30 years. Namely, growing global temperatures are actually doing nothing less than opening of a new ocean, a development unprecedented on Earth since the end of the Ice Age. This opens new perspectives in maritime transport and traveling, as well as access to estimated 20% of undiscovered global reserves of oil and gas. In the era of increased trade dynamics between Asia and Europe, as well as due to the fact that it is highly unlikely that alternative energy resources will prevail over hydrocarbons in the period to come, the Arctic is attracting the attention not only of littoral states but beyond. Rapid melting and possible intensi�ication of Arctic transport and drilling undoubtedly carry negative environmental consequences, which raises the issue of well proscribed and appropriately implemented system of regional governance in a changing global context. Apart from that, there are serious challenges to a scenario of energy-rich Arctic that is open for low-cost transport in the short and mid-term period, which have to be taken into account. Obviously, there are at least three essential elements that are determinant for the future of increasingly important Arctic in the context of wider international relations: transport, resources and governance. Taking a closer look at them, will surely help grasping the entire phenomena of the Arctic meltdown.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Arctic

52. General Election in Montenegro: A step closer to Euro-Atlantic integration?

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Montenegro has yet again drawn the attention of the European public during the general election on 16 October. On election day many irregularities were recorded and several incidents occurred, including an alleged coup attempt, as the big question loomed over the country: Is Montenegro still going to be ruled by the same man, the incumbent Prime Minister Milo Đukanović who has been in power for over a quarter of a century, as president and Prime Minister during four terms, with just two short periods of ‘retirement’ when he actually pulled strings behind people loyal to him? Montenegrin opposition was quite adamant in their demand that Đukanović has to leave the political scene of Montenegro after twenty-�ive years of almost undisputed rule. The four major opposition parties in Montenegro, the Democratic Front (DF – Demokratski Front), the Key Coalition (Ključ), the Democratic Montenegro (DCG – Demokratska Crna Gora) and the Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP – Socijaldemokratska Partija Crne Gore), have all decided that they would not make coalition agreements with the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS – Demokratska Partija Socijalista Crne Gore) presided over by Milo Đukanović and help him by any means to form a government. The DPS managed to win 41% of the votes on 16 October and consequently 36 seats in the 81 seat Parliament, and they needed �ive more mandates to form the government. At its �irst session after the election Montenegro’s Parliament was inaugurated on 7 November, just days after Milo Đukanović unexpectedly stepped down as the DPS’s candidate for the new Prime Minister, leaving the place to Duško Marković, the party’s Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro. Montenegro is expected to join NATO next year as the rati�ication process should end by spring 2017, and the country has so far opened 24 chapters in negotiations to access the European Union, but it is still not clear whether this process would be tempered by the current unstable political situation.
Topic:
Elections and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

53. Understanding China’s Foreign Policy Goals in Asia Through the South China Sea Disputes

Author:
Srdan Ulijević
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Ever since the launch of the Reform and Opening policy in 1978 China has been under close scrutiny of scholars and policymakers for its potential to transform the world’s economic, political and military relations. As the country’s economy grew larger and its political clout became more in�luential, international relations scholars had been applying various models and theories in order to understand and possibly predict China’s foreign policy behavior. Questions pertaining to whether China will be a status quo or revisionist power in the international system became even more relevant after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. With its sizeable landmass, strategic geopolitical location, large population and rapidly modernizing economy, China had all the trappings of a potential superpower. With its sizeable landmass, strategic geopolitical location, large population and rapidly modernizing economy, China had all the trappings of a potential superpower. By joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China had effectively secured the key economic component necessary to achieve the crux of its grand strategy – to build comprehensive national power as well as to increase its in�luence in international fora. As a result of the WTO membership, China’s economy was propelled to new heights and its GDP grew more than eight times between 2001 and 2014. On the diplomatic front, multilateral and bilateral cooperation proliferated, with countries from every continent �locking to Beijing to sign trade deals. The EU offered to share its normative experience in regional cooperation while the US openly invited China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in 2005. For its part, China initiated a series of bold diplomatic moves towards the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), branded by the media and policymakers as the charm offensive policy. The charm offensive period lasted from 1997 to 2008 and paved the way for China’s deeper economic, political and military cooperation with Southeast Asian countries. The policy fueled dreams of China becoming the engine of ASEAN’s future economic growth and prosperity.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

54. Does EU Regulation Hinder or Stimulate Innovation?

Author:
Jacques Pelkmans
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
‘Does EU regulation hinder or stimulate innovation’ is a frequently heard query in the EU, but there is little systematic analytical literature on the issue. Fragmented evidence or anecdotes dominate debates among EU regulatory decision-makers and in European business, insofar as there is a genuine debate at all. This text focuses on the multi-faceted, ambiguous and complex relationship between (EU) regulation and innovation in the economy, and discusses the innovation-enhancing potential of certain regulatory approaches as well as factors that tend to reduce incentives to innovate. We adopt an 'ecosystem' approach to both regulation and innovation and study the interactions between the two ecosystems. This general analysis and survey are complemented by seven case studies of EU regulation enabling and disabling innovation, two horizontal and five sectoral ones. The case studies are preceded by a broader contextual analysis of trends in EU regulation over the last three decades. These trends show the significant transformation of the nature as well as improvement of the quality of EU regulation, largely in the deepened internal market, which tend to have a favourable and lasting effect on the rate of innovation in the EU (other things being equal). Our findings include the following: Regulation can at times be a powerful stimulus to innovation. EU regulation matters at all stages of the innovation process. Different types of regulation can be identified in terms of innovation impact: general or horizontal, innovation specific and sector-specific regulation. More prescriptive regulation tends to hamper innovative activity, whereas the more flexible EU regulation is, the better innovation can be stimulated. Lower compliance and red-tape burdens have a positive effect on innovation. We recommend incorporating a specific test on innovation impacts in the ex-ante impact assessment of EU legislation as well as in ex-post evaluation. There is ample potential for fostering innovation by reviewing the EU regulatory acquis.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

55. The Future of NATO in the New Security Environment. A Former Newcomer’s View

Author:
Marek Madej and Robert Czulda
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The article ‘The Future of NATO in the New Security Environment. A Former Newcomer’s View’, analyses the role of NATO alliance in the contemporary security environment within the context of its priorities defined by new Strategic Concept 2010, having special attention on potential role of former newcomers and potential new members.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, North America, and United States of America

56. Croatia’s First Year of EU Membership : Have the Expectations been Fulfilled?

Author:
Višnja Samardžija
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The first anniversary of Croatia’s membership in the European Union revealed the experiences of the first country from a new wave of EU enlargement which joined the Union in economically different circumstances and passed through a more demanding negotiation process. In contrast to the EU 2004/2007 enlargements, Croatia acceded to the EU as a single country and the accession did not cause stronger impact on the EU institutions or policies, due to the fact that Croatia is a small state with some 4.3 million citizens and some 56,600 square km land area.[1] One year of the EU membership is too short period for a thorough evaluation of its impacts. Still this initial experience could be considered as a lessons learned for the political elites, citizens and the countries of the Western Balkan region who might be next in line for EU accession. These are the main issues covered by this paper.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Croatia