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1. Tracking the Trend of Quinoa Price in Bolivia: Structural Breaks and Persistence of Shocks

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann, Ignacio Garrón Vedia, and María Cecilia Lenis Abastoflor
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Quinoa has evolved considerably in the past decades, becoming consolidated as a fundamental pillar for Andean farming communities and emerging as a prominent actor in the global superfood market. Despite this, prices of this grain have been characterized by complex dynamics, with substantial fluctuations that directly affect smallholder income. The goal of this research is to analyze Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, identifying both the main events and factors that caused structural breaks in the price trend and the persistence of shocks in time. The approach employed combines, on the one hand, an analysis of the structural breaks by means of the Bai and Perron contrast, together with estimates of long memory using the 2ELW estimator. Also evaluated was the influence of exogenous variables that affect prices, for which the world commodity activity index (Index of Global Real Economic Activity), the Oceanic Niño Index and world quinoa production were considered. The findings show multiple structural breaks in the quinoa price series, related to certain key events. Among the latter are for example changes in research and development, the production and sales boom, and the boost prompted by State initiatives and international cooperation. These breaks are also related to different degrees of persistence in the shocks under the different regimes identified. Although the exogenous variables show no significant short-term effects, it is understood that they may have a relevant influence in different periods. The present study shows the complexity of Bolivian quinoa price dynamics, characterized by several structural breaks. To take proper advantage of this market, producers and policy makers must implement flexible strategies, as well as continuous monitoring of the sector’s progress, considering the key factors that induced price trend changes over the years.
Topic:
Markets, Memory, Price, Quinoa, and Structural Breaks
Political Geography:
South America, Bolivia, and Andes

2. Current Situation and Prospects of the Quinoa Sector in Bolivia

Author:
Rubén Collao P. and Beatriz Muriel Hernández
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We analyze the quinoa sector situation and prospects in Bolivia, based on both secondary and primary information sources (i.e. surveys of producers and interviews to key actors). The quinoa sector has sustainability problems in production, market shares and price volatility. However, this grain – specifically the royal quinoa from the Southern Altiplano – has great potential to remain in the world market within niches that value organic or regenerative production, as well as to increase national consumption. In this regard, we believe that it is necessary to impulse the quinoa transformation with greater diversification, productive complementation and coordination between the various stakeholders. In this productive dynamics, small quinoa producers can insert themselves into the value chain, which requires the strengthening of their hard and soft skills, as well as greater technical assistance. Finally, the quinoa sector sustainability requires a comprehensive approach that includes good agricultural practices caring the environment, as well as more conscious consumption.
Topic:
Markets, Sustainability, Value Chains, and Quinoa
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

3. Evolution of Multidimensional Energy Poverty Risk in Bolivia from 2005 to 2019

Author:
Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Sergio Mansilla
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
“Energy poverty” is a multidimensional concept that reflects the need to achieve a variety of wellbeing outcomes, which has been scarcely studied and used in public policy agendas. Considering that the literature on energy poverty is still incipient in Bolivia, this paper’s objective is to generate evidence about energy poverty evolution in the country, approximating measures of incidence (risk) and severity for the period 2005-2019. The methodological approach follows the one proposed by Alkire & Foster (2011), with five equally weighted dimensions (energy expenditure, lighting, cooking fuel and indoor pollution, food equipment, and education and communication) and using different cut-off options, at the urban and rural levels. Also, Multidimensional Energy Poverty results are compared with a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based weight structure as a robustness exercise. Results show that the risk of being energy poor in Bolivia has decreased, but not structurally. Also, intensity has decreased in both urban and rural areas, but rural energy poor households continue to show at least 50% of deprivation in all dimensions evaluated.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Rural, and Energy
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

4. Hydrocarbon Prices and Subsidies in Bolivia 1986-2025

Author:
S. Mauricio Medinaceli Monrroy and Marcelo G. Velázquez La Vieja
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The following study identifies five periods with different price regimes (for main hydrocarbons): 1) 1986-1996, where these prices are part of the Government’s fiscal policy to finance part of the structural adjustment policies after the inflationary period; 2) 19971999, when a new methodology for price determination based on three central components is implemented, international reference prices, transport, refining and sale margins and direct, indirect and consumption-specific taxes; 3) 2000-2003, period of privatization of refineries, transport and storage, where policies of stabilization of fuel prices took on greater relevance within the regulatory framework, an aspect that allowed to keep almost unchanged the final prices of gasoline and diesel, but with a considerable fiscal cost due to adjustment of the Special Tax on Hydrocarbons and their Derivatives (IEHD); 4) 2004-2005, where in 2004 a price band was determined for international reference price behavior; in this sense, international prices above USD/barrel 27.11 are not transferred to end consumers; and 5) 2005-2022, because in 2005 the last price adjustment was made (with the 2010 temporary increase exception) for gasoline, diesel oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which remained in force until 2022. Regarding the quantification of subsidies for production and consumption of hydrocarbons in Bolivia, five broad categories were considered in this document: an opportunity cost of selling production to the domestic market instead of its export; a direct import of petrol, diesel and LPG at higher prices for subsequent sale at lower prices; a non-updating of margins from the value chain of petroleum products; a fiscal sacrifice for non-collected VAT (Value Added Tax 13%) and; an incentive given to field operators in Bolivia. In total, it is estimated that by 2022 these five categories will represent 11.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), with the following disaggregation: opportunity cost (5.8%), direct import (3.1%), margin update (1.2%), tax sacrifice – VAT (1.1%), and incentive (0.4%).
Topic:
Economy, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

5. Inclusive Growth and Decent Jobs by Gender: The Case of Urban Areas in Bolivia

Author:
Beatriz Muriel Hernández and Sergio Mansilla
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper presents an empirical study of how inclusive was the extraordinary growth experienced by Bolivia between 2006 and 2019, in terms of decent job generation in urban areas and by gender. For this, we use the Ali and Son (2007) concentration curve of opportunities and approach the jobs with five rates proposed by Muriel (2014, 2019, 2020a, 2020b): i.e. job stability, Christmas wage bonus tenure, social protection access, sufficient labour income and membership of a labour association. The results show that growth was inclusive between 2006 and 2011; but it was not in further periods. Even, the percentage of workers with Christmas wage bonus, sufficient labor income and with affiliation to some labor association were lower in 2019 compared to 2006. In terms of gender gaps, the one associated with sufficient labor income stands out, but the main problems lie in the inequities of access to opportunities within the same female population.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Urban, Gender, Economic Inclusion, and Jobs
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

6. Experimental Field Evidence of Common Pool Resources: The Water Judge in Bolivia

Author:
Gabriela Agafitei
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
In 2019, the Bolivian government began implementation of the Universal Health Insurance (SUS) scheme, with critics claiming the unpreparedness of the healthcare system to provide universal and free services. To date, there is no research that assesses the effects of the reform and to what extent it is providing universal, free services. The objective of this study is to fill this research gap by providing a diagnosis on access to public healthcare services after the SUS’s adoption. In this study, access is operationalized according to a theoretical framework developed by the World Health Organization (2010). The study has been conducted according to a combined method that compares data from before and after the SUS approval. First, data from the National Household Survey has been analyzed to provide an overview of dimensions related to access at the macro level. Secondly, the macro perspective is integrated with data collected through semi-structured interviews that provide a detailed analysis of the qualitative dimensions of accessing healthcare at the micro level, which are often not reflected by quantitative indicators. The results showed that on the one hand access to public healthcare services has increased in the first year of the SUS’s implementation compared to previous years. However, despite the supply of additional human resources and physical infrastructure, the sufficiency in availability of human resources remains questionable, as the values disaggregated per 1,000 inhabitants remained roughly the same. Similarly, spending at the macroeconomic level did not reach recommended levels for universal coverage. Data from the case study deepens the understanding of the findings at the macro level. In fact, access appears as characterized by considerable challenges, such as long waiting times, lack of medicines and of beds, and low-quality services that overall restrain access to the public services. The study has concluded that despite the fact that access has increased, insufficiency of resources and the structural characteristics of the Bolivian healthcare system represent severe limitations for the universal outreach of SUS.
Topic:
Services, Insurance, Healthcare System, and Universal Healthcare
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

7. Decentralization and Poverty Reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Luis Carlos Jemio
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper presents an analysis of the decentralization process that has been taking place in Bolivia over the last couple of decades. It starts with a review of the legal framework that determines the distribution of responsibilities and financial resources to the sub-national governments (9 departments and 339 municipalities), and continues with an analysis of the evolution and distribution of financing to these entities between 2001 and 2013. It then proceeds to describe the resulting progress in social indicators between 2001 and 2012 at the municipal level, and identifies the main remaining gaps in basic services by 2012. Finally, the paper offers an analysis of the factors that are most closely associated with progress in the main social indicator used by the Bolivian government – the Unsatisfied Basic Needs index. This provides the basis for a final section on recommendations for public investment in Bolivia.
Topic:
Poverty, Economy, Decentralization, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

8. Regional development, income distribution and gender in Bolivia Insights from a 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and Multiplier Analysis

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio, Lykke E. Andersen, Clemens Breisinger, and Manfred Wiebelt
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper describes the construction of the most detailed, openly accessible Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Bolivia to date. In addition to allowing for “standard” socio-economic analysis common for SAMs - like assessing the linkages between production, factor income distribution and households’ incomes and expenditures – the SAM presented in this paper makes detailed economic assessments at the subnational level, by gender and at detailed agricultural subsector levels, possible. Sections 1-4 present the methodology and data sources used, explain assumptions and criteria adopted for SAM disaggregation, and discuss key findings with a focus on distributional features. Section 5 presents results from a simple SAM multiplier model and section 6 concludes. It is the authors’ hope that this SAM database can make a contribution to evidence-based policy making that helps to further reduce poverty and food insecurity in Bolivia.
Topic:
Development, Gender, and Income
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

9. Cycles versus Trends: The Effects of Economic Growth on Earnings in Bolivia

Author:
Beatriz Muriel H. and Horacio Vera C.
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the effects of economic growth on labor earnings in Bolivia during 1999-2012. More precisely, we develop a labor market model to capture both cycle and trend effects of prices, and production on earnings, which is estimated econometrically using pseudo-panel data methods. The results show that labor earnings have had a pro-cyclical behavior. In particular, we find that, in the short run, an increase of 1% in prices or production explains an earnings rise of around 0.5%, while, in the long run, a production increase of 1% is associated with an earnings variation of 0.4%. Furthermore, we find that labor earnings growth by sector follows, to some extent, the economic performance of its corresponding sector, which responds to the sector segmentation characteristics in the Bolivian labor market.
Topic:
Business, Economic Growth, Earnings, and Wages
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

10. Building Resilience against Adverse Shocks: What are the determinants of vulnerability and resilience?

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Marcelo Cardona
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a simple way to measure livelihood diversification, and uses this measure together with income levels to classify Bolivian households by level of vulnerability. Regression analysis is then carried out to determine the factors and strategies associated with high resilience or high vulnerability. The results show that the single most important strategy for resilience is to have a working and income earning spouse in the household. This is still much too uncommon in Bolivia. A second important factor is the age of the head of household. Young families are considerably more vulnerable than more mature families, as the former have not had time to build up assets (physical, human and social capital) that can provide alternative sources of livelihood. One of the most surprising results of the study is that urban households are considerably more vulnerable to adverse shocks than rural households, whereas gender and ethnicity are irrelevant. The paper finishes with a comprehensive list of policy recommendations.
Topic:
Diversification, Resilience, Livelihoods, Vulnerability, and External Shocks
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia