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1. Predictors of school dropout across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam

Author:
Santiago Cueto, Claudia Felipe, and Juan Leon
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
In this paper the authors utilize the five rounds of Young Lives household surveys across four countries (Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam) to study the characteristics of children who had dropped out of school by 22 years of age. While most children in the longitudinal sample go to primary school, they tend to drop out more often and earlier in Ethiopia. In India most children complete the early grades of school but drop out later, particularly in grades 11 and 13. Researchers find that in all countries, except Vietnam, there is a considerable number of children who drop out of school but at some point return to it, either to complete secondary or drop out again. The reasons provided by children for dropping out across the countries are oftentimes related to poverty: for example, the need to work, or care or provide for family. The multivariate analysis shows that indeed in many cases the wealth level of the family at an early age predicts later dropout, as does maternal education level, students’ early skills and residence in certain regions of each country. There are also some variations across countries; for example, boys are more likely to drop out of school in Ethiopia and Vietnam, and children who have repeated a grade are more likely to drop out of school in Peru. However, having high educational aspirations at early ages seems to be a protective factor against dropping out. This suggests that the value that children place on education may be an important preventative factor against dropping out. Overall, these results suggest the need to act early through education and social protection interventions to target young children who are at risk of dropping out, and the follow their trajectories, providing support as needed to specific groups and even individuals, so that all children may fulfill their right to complete at least secondary education.
Topic:
Education and Children
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Peru

2. COVID-19 and External Shock: Economic Impacts and Policy Options

Author:
Miguel Jaramillo and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Latin America is currently suffering from two independent but related shocks: the impact of COVID-19 and the shock of commodity prices. Peru, we argue, is a case in which the strongest impact comes from the pandemic. Peru was the first country in Latin America to react and implement sanitary and economic measures against the coronavirus. The country has been in mandatory quarantine since Monday, March 16. This carries very important challenges for all economic actors. Global and national activity has suffered a sudden stop with direct implications for: (i) the income generating capacity of independent workers, (ii) the jobs of formal and informal and informal workers, and (iii) the survival of small, medium and large companies. In this note we consider the situation of Peruvian households in the face of the pandemic, exploring their vulnerabilities through an analysis of their main source of income generation: work. We also consider the situation of the companies that employ the workers under analysis. We present an overview of what the government’s main action have been so far and offer some recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Economic Policy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

3. Revisiting the determinants of non-farm income in the Peruvian Andes in a context of intraseasonal climate variability and spatially widespread family networks

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Non-farm income sources are increasingly important in the developing world, representing up to 50 percent of average rural household income. Although there is a vast literature on the determinants of rural households’ strategies for income diversification, two factors associated with long-term transformations and common to many developing countries, have not yet been integrated into the analysis: (i) the role of intraseasonal climate variability (affected by climate change), and (ii) the role of family networks located in distant areas (increasingly important given population displacement due to the internal conflict and increasing connectivity via roads and communications). Whereas an increase in climate variability entails an increase in risk and vulnerability for farm activities, family networks located in distant regions(that do not share the local climate or market shocks) may become a key asset for managing risk and fostering income opportunities (as long as they convey information and opportunities that are not available through local networks). Given the market imperfections that are common in developing rural areas—especially those related to climate risk management—explicit consideration of both factors is key to understanding rural households’ diversification strategies. The study aims to contribute to this pending agenda, investigating the role of these two factors on a household’s income diversification into non-farm activities in the Peruvian Andes, a mountain region with large intraseasonal climate variability and limited but increasing spatial connectivity, where the rural population was severely affected by the internal conflict that took place in the country during the eighties and nineties.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Rural, Industry, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

4. Adaptation to climate change in the tropical mountains? Effects of intraseasonal climate variability on crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Crop diversification, selection of tolerant crops, and intercropping are some of the strategies that Andean farmers, as well as farmers in other mountain regions, have historically used to cope with climate-related risks and take advantage of heterogeneous agricultural land (with plots located at different altitudes, facing different environmental conditions). This study analyzes the role of climate variability —during the growing season— in the use of these strategies, in a context of climate change in the Andean region. Using agrarian census data from 1994 and 2012 (district panel), the author finds that —controlling for other climate conditions and socio-economic factors—, an increase in intraseasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11˚C during the growing season) to concentrate their crop portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region. Given that Andean farmers received little to no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers’ autonomous adaptation to climate changes and some specific issues that need to be part of the public intervention agenda.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Rural, Economic Development, Land, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

5. The impact of intimate partner violence on child development in Peru

Author:
Mariel Bedoya, Karen Espinoza, and Alan Sanchez
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Resarchers used longitudinal data from a cohort of Peruvian children (n=1,720) tracked starting at the age of 1 year old to test the association between alcohol-induced physical IPV (intimate partner violence) against the mother during the child’s first two years of life, and the child’s cognitive, socio-emotional and schooling outcomes between the ages of 5 and 8. Multivariate regression techniques are used to estimate the relationship of interest, as they allow for controlling of child, household, and community characteristics. The authors find that early life exposure to IPV is negatively associated with cognitive outcomes (vocabulary and math test scores) for all children, and with self-efficacy for girls. We find no association with child’s self-esteem and age of school enrollment indicators. The effects are larger among children whose mothers are better educated and live in urban areas. Results remain robust across different specifications and after isolating changes in relevant variables over time.
Topic:
Development, Children, Gender Based Violence, Violence, and Intimate Partner Violence
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

6. How do Latin American migrants in the U.S. stand on schooling premium? What does it reveal about education quality in their home countries?

Author:
Daniel Alonso-Soto and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Indicators for quality of schooling are not only relatively new in the world but also unavailable for a sizable share of the world’s population. In their absence, some proxy measures have been devised. One simple but powerful idea has been to use the schooling premium for migrant workers in the U.S. (Bratsberg and Terrell 2002). In this paper the authors extend this idea and compute measures for the schooling premium of immigrant workers in the U.S over a span of five decades. Focusing on those who graduated from either secondary or tertiary education in Latin American countries, they present comparative estimates of the evolution of such premia for both schooling levels. The results show that the schooling premia in Latin America have been steadily low throughout the whole period of analysis. The results stand after controlling for selective migration in different ways. This contradicts the popular belief in policy circles that the education quality of the region has deteriorated in recent years. In contrast, schooling premium in India shows an impressive improvement in recent decades, especially at the tertiary level.
Topic:
Education, Migration, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

7. The Value of Redistribution: Natural Resources and the Formation of Human Capital under Weak Institutions

Author:
Jorge Aguero, Carlos Felipe Balcázar, Stanislao Maldonado, and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodities boom to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation in Peru, a country with low governance indicators. Combining test scores from over two million students and district-level administrative data on mining production and the redistribution of mining taxes to local governments, we find no effect from production. However, redistribution of mining taxes increases math test scores by 0.23 standard deviations. We identify the improvements in the quality of teachers and in school infrastructure, together with increases in adult employment and health outcomes of adults and children, as key mechanisms from the redistribution. Policy implications for the avoidance of the natural resource curse are discussed.
Topic:
Education, Natural Resources, Institutions, and Human Capital
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

8. Promoting prenatal health care in poor rural areas through conditional cash transfers: evidence from JUNTOS in Peru

Author:
Juan Jose Diaz and Victor Saldarriaga
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
The authors assess the effects of JUNTOS, a conditional cash transfer program targeted to poor rural households in Peru, on the utilization of prenatal health care by women exposed to the program during their most recent pregnancy. They implement a difference-in-differences estimation technique to uncover the effects of JUNTOS on the utilization of prenatal health care, the quality of prenatal health care, utilization of health care at birth, and obstetric complications at birth. Researchers use data from the publicly available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from the period 2000-2014. Results suggest that the program has increased prenatal health care utilization. Even more salient, the results also suggest an improvement in the quality of health care received and a reduction of obstetric complications at birth.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Children, Rural, Microeconomics, and Infants
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

9. Understanding teenage fertility, cohabitation, and marriage: the case of Peru

Author:
Marta Favara, Pablo Lavado, and Alan Sanchez
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
In this study, the authors used data from the Young Lives study, which inves­tigates teenage childbearing, marriage, and cohabitation by tracking a cohort of individuals from the ages of 8 to 19 years. While the present analysis does not intend to establish causality, the longitudi­nal nature of the data allows the researchers to identify the combination of early circumstances and life changes that induce a higher likelihood of these events. The analysis addresses bias due both to reverse causality and to community characteristics that are usually unobserved and fixed over time, a strategy that is quite unique in studies of developing countries. About 1 out of 5 females (and 1 out of 20 males) in our sample had at least one child by the age of 19, and 80 percent of them were married or cohabiting. Early marriage/cohabitation is indeed intrinsically re­lated to early pregnancy and largely predicted by the same factors. For females specifically, girls from poor households with an absent parent for a prolonged period have a higher risk of early childbearing. Similarly, girls whose self-efficacy and educational aspirations decrease over time are more at risk of becoming a mother during adolescence. Conversely, school attendance and better school performance predict a lower risk of early pregnancy; the analysis suggests that this is largely because it postpones the first sexual relationship.
Topic:
Health, Children, Sexuality, Public Health, Young Adults, and Adolescence
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru