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1. Diplomacy, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Deal and its Implications

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 5 June 2018, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition; Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under its new leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that it shall accept the terms of a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea. The announcement came as a shock both to the international community and analysts who follow politics in the Horn of Africa. Beneath the declaration were years of silent diplomatic undertakings which have been given relatively lesser attention as the charismatic nature of Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has taken centre stage. This Brief shall emphasize the role of diplomacy in the build-up to the announcement as well as the unique nature of Prime Minister Ahmed; in doing so, it is intrinsic to capture the historical context of the border conflict, an alternative explanation to diplomacy as well as the rewards of the peace deal and its challenges (implications). The Brief concludes by making a case for diplomacy as it still remains a viable factor in terms of conflict resolution in Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

2. Renewed Arms Race, the NPT, and the New Start Treaty After the End of the INF Treaty

Author:
Elif Beyza Karaalioğlu
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The U.S. decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty left world observing about what might happen next. Indeed, the demise of the INF Treaty points out to an uncertainty on arms control and it brings new questions regarding international security. In the light of recent developments on the INF Treaty, this study attempts to make an analysis on the possible impacts of the end of the INF Treaty on international security. This study argues that the collapse of the INF Treaty raise concerns for renewed arms race and the withdrawal from the INF Treaty inevitably brings other treaties such as the NPT and the New START into close consideration.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

3. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA)

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 21 March, 2018, 44 African heads of state and government dignitaries signed a historic African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) at the 10th Ordinary Session of African Union (AU) Heads of State Summit held in Kigali, Rwanda. The AfCFTA is the largest free trade area since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995. The Session was under the theme: “Creating One African Market,” and falls under AU’s Agenda 2063 Initiative. The AfCFTA is also one of the biggest free-trade areas with regards to the number of countries, thus, encompassing 1.2 billion people with over $4 trillion in combined consumer and business spending should the remaining 11 AU member countries join the Agreement (Signe, 2018). The AfCFTA would additionally become effective 30 days subsequent to ratification by the legislative houses of at least 22 African countries; countries that signed the Agreement have 120 days for its ratification. This paper seeks to outline the significance of the Agreement, its aims, challenges and the continuous work needed to sustain it going forward with potential impact it may have on third country agreements with AU member countries.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Tariffs, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

4. Spotlight on Africa | The South Sudan Conflict – 2018 Khartoum Peace Agreement

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 27 June 2018, South Sudan’s main belligerents inked a peace deal that aims to set the country on a path to normalcy from it over half decade of conflict. The deal was reached at the backdrop of a two-day talks between President Salva Kiir and ‘rebel leader’, Riek Machar, former Vice President of South Sudan. The Khartoum talks were mediated by President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda on behalf of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)2 . The announcement of the deal came both as a surprise and relief – surprise because only a week prior to this deal, the warring parties had stalemated a peace pact intended to resurrect an earlier peace deal signed in 2015. In fact the leading figures, both Kiir and Machar had summarily not only rejected that deal but also the notion of even working together, the deal came as a relief in certain quarters cognizance of the 30 June deadline set by the UN Security Council after which sanctions on South Sudan would be renewed.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

5. A Smarter Dimension of a New Universal Climate Agreement?

Author:
Katarína Hazuchová
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
As the world approaches the middle of this century, the narratives of natural resources’ management are being newly defined, aiming to converge into new, “smarter” means of prosperity, which recognizes and integrates climate change related risks. The impacts of climate change are easily seen by the naked eye, as the ice sheets are melting ever faster, acidification of the oceans is increasing, sea level rises and extreme weather events brings casualties and economic loss around the globe. However, the means of how countries and markets have been willing or reluctant to cooperate on climate change in the context of making changes to sovereign resource management is significant. The transition to low-carbon, cleaner economies is driven by two rationales: the first objective is not to increase the world temperature by more than 2 ⁰C by the end of the century, upgrading to 1,5 ⁰C; and the second is to plan how to do so smoothly through world-wide de-carbonization. The uncertainties and fears surrounding “transformation” determine, to a certain extent, the voluntary nature of some new aspects of the current climate change regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Policy Recommendations for Israel-Turkey Reconciliation

Author:
GPoT Center and Mitvim
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Engaged in a series of policy dialogues since 2012, Mitvim – the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Global Political Trends (GPoT) Center believe that after the signing of the Israel-Turkey agreement and the restoration of full diplomatic relations, both countries should consider the following policy recommendations in order to ensure successful reconciliation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, and Israel

7. Time to Seal the Israel-Turkey Deal

Author:
Mensur Akgün, Muhammed Ammash, Nimrod Goren, Gabriel Mitchell, and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Turkey and Israel face a unique opportunity: to reconcile after five years of stagnant bilateral relations. We, leaders of Israeli and Turkish think tanks that have been working together since 2012 to support the mending of Israel-Turkey relations, welcome this development and call on the leaders of both countries to seize this opportunity. In mid-December, officials from both countries met in Switzerland in order to finalize principles for an eventual agreement to normalize ties. Reports confirm that an outline and framework for the reconciliation agreement has indeed been reached, although some important issues – such as the blockade on the Gaza Strip – are still unresolved. Israel and Turkey came close to sealing a reconciliation deal on several occasions since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, most recently in the spring of 2014. However, while diplomats managed to find formulas that would overcome the differences between the countries, political leadership in Ankara and Jerusalem was hesitant to put the agreement into practice. This time around, there seems to be a convergence of economic and geostrategic interests, as well as political will on both sides.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. Orta Asya'da İşbirliği ve Bütünleşme: Kolektif Güvenlik Antlaşması Örgütü Örneği

Author:
Çağla Gül Çağla Gül
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
This study examines the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its effects on cooperation and unification processes among Central Asian states. It argues that cooperation and unification among Central Asian States are mainly affected by the international environment that has changed after 9/11 and the Afghanistan Operation. Regional Powers have cooperated with both the US and the Russian Federation in fighting against terrorism. Central Asian States have been considering their new path through independent foreign policy or inter-state cooperation and even unification.
Topic:
Islam, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

9. Cyprus: A European Anomaly

Author:
Michael Moran
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
I have published most of the items in this booklet before. Denktaş's speech before the United Nations (UN) Security Council in 1964 was included in my edition of Rauf Denktash at the United Nations: Speeches on Cyprus (The Eothen Press, Huntingdon, 1997); and except for a few small changes, my opening essay here differs little from the first chapter of my book Sovereignty Divided: Essays on the International Dimensions of the Cyprus Problem (CYREP, Nicosia, 1998; third enlarged imprint, 1999). These earlier works are now out of print and will probably remain so.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe and Cyprus

10. EU's Readmission Agreement and Visa Liberalization Talks with Turkey: Backing up Turkey's Protracted Way to the EU

Author:
Lenka Peťková
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
European Union (EU) has been reluctant to start visa liberalization talks with Turkey until mid–2012 despite the fact that citizens of all other candidate countries have enjoyed visa-free travel to Schengen area since 2009. The Turkish diplomats had mastered to negotiate roadmap to visa-free travel in an exchange for the initial of the readmission agreement, implementation of which is considered key in securing EU's eastern borders. The issues of migration and visa policy are covered in the negotiating chapter Justice, Freedom and Security, which has been blocked by the Republic of Cyprus. Demonstrating that the said topics represent joint interest of Turkey and the EU, the chapter was added to the positive agenda launched this May with the aim to keep Turkey's accession process alive. Despite the fact that visa liberalization and readmission agreement will both be negotiated outside of Turkey's accession framework, reforms adopted in these areas are likely to ease Turkey's alignment with the provisions of the relevant chapter of the acquis communautaire. Visa liberalization and readmission agreement are thus important factors influencing Turkey's protracted journey to the EU.
Topic:
Islam, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Famine
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey