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21. New Horizons for Germany's Africa Policy

Author:
Robert Kappel
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper deals with Germany’s new Africa policy. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) presented a new Africa concept in January 2017. The BMZ wants to counter the further marginalisation of Africa with inclusive and sustainable growth. Chancellor Angela Merkel will explain her new policy for Africa at the G20 summit in Hamburg in July 2017, in an attempt to gain the approval of the other G20 members for focused cooperation with Africa. The paper argues that it remains solely the duty of African states to take their development into their own hands. Cooperation can support this process, but it cannot assume what is each state’s individual responsibility.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa and Germany

22. Power and Crisis: Explaining Varieties of Commercial Banking Systems in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico

Author:
Sebastian Etchemendy and Puente Ignacio
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1980s Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico had commer- cial banking sectors that were dominated by local banks. The largest countries in Latin America were subjected to common international economic pressures during both the neoliberal 1980s and 1990s – includ- ing the expansion of capital markets in the periphery and integration into the regional trade agreements NAFTA and Mercosur – and the post- 1998 financial turmoil. By 2015, however, the three countries had con- solidated alternative commercial banking systems: domestic private group dominated (Brazil), mixed (i.e., ownership more evenly divided among public, private domestic, and foreign banks (Argentina), and foreign bank dominated (Mexico). The article traces these alternative outcomes to the power of prereform private financial groups, the viru- lence of “twin crises” in the transition from fixed to floating exchange rates, and the (contingent) role played by government ideology.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Finance, Trade, and Banking
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

23. Revisiting the Issue of Democratic Deterioration in Venezuela, 1974–1998

Author:
Anibal F. Gauna
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the issue of democratic deterioration by revisiting the Venezuelan case (1974–1998). Using sequence elaboration and alternative case-focused theories, it tests and confirms the hypothesis that presidential partyarchy was the main contextual explanatory factor behind the crisis that led to Venezuela’s democratic deterioration. Building on elite conflict theory, it also aims to integrate previous studies’ insights and better explain the timing of factors to illustrate how economic presidentialism (the highly autonomous executive control of a state-controlled economy) was the main mechanism leading to democratic deterioration.
Topic:
Economics, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

24. The Old Rules No Longer Apply: Explaining NarcoAssassinations of Mexican Politicians

Author:
Laura Ross Blume
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Between 2005 and 2015, organized criminal groups murdered 209 politicians in Mexico. This paper explains why. It argues that the two interwoven trends of political and criminal pluralization in Mexico fostered the conditions for a new type of criminal violence against politicians. Mexican politicians are now targeted for accepting illicit money as well as for standing up to criminals. Moreover, this violence is evidence of an alarming and persistent pattern in Mexico of politicians enlisting criminal organizations to eliminate their political competition. Using a zero-inflated negative binomial model, this paper shows there is a strong statistical relationship between the increase in assassinations and the increases in political pluralization and criminal fragmentation. The article concludes that the failure to protect local public officials creates greater opportunities for the emergence of subnational authoritarian enclaves and threatens democratic consolidation.
Topic:
Crime, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Assassination, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

25. Electoral Competition and Social Spending in the Argentine Provinces

Author:
Lucas Gonzalez
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
What is the effect of political competition on subnational social spending? Using descriptive statistics and regression models for original budget panel data for the 24 Argentine provinces between 1993 and 2009, the study finds that social spending increases the more electorally secure governors are and the longer they have been in office. It also finds that other arguments in the literature are relevant in explaining variations on types of spending, such as partisan fragmentation in the districts. The article discusses these findings for the Argentine provinces and explores their implications with regard to the debates on the effects of electoral competition and the design of social policies, especially in developing countries and federal democracies.
Topic:
Developing World, Elections, Democracy, Local, and Social Spending
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

26. The Limits of Material Benefits: Remittances and Pro-Americanism in Mexico

Author:
Convadonga Meseguer, Jaupart Pascal, and Javier Aparicio
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We explore how the reception of remittances affects perceptions of the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. Scholars have claimed that the economic benefits of the relationship with the US prevail over imperialistic concerns as a result of the asymmetry of power between the two countries. Empirical research shows that Latin American public opinion is indeed more supportive of the US than theory indicates. However, we identify two gaps in this literature. First, scholars have explored the determinants of generic expressions of sentiment toward the US, overlooking more concrete instances of cooperation between the two countries. Second, scholars have focused on trade and investment and have ignored how the material gains of emigration shape attitudes toward the US. The present paper fills these two gaps by using novel survey data on the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the US. On one hand, we find that while the reception of remittances correlates positively with good sentiments toward the US, the recipients of remittances are consistently more opposed to cooperation with the US in the fight against drug trafficking. We argue that this finding can be explained by the different nature of the migratory phenomenon, and the connection between anti-drug trafficking policies and the close scrutiny of illegal flows of money and people.
Topic:
Imperialism, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trafficking, Borders, and Drugs
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

27. Leftist Politics and the Limits of Microcredit in Argentina

Author:
Ronald Ahnen
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The success of microcredit lending programs depends in part on the regulatory framework that policymakers create to support them. A fact that many microcredit analyses often ignore or overlook is that this framework is shaped by both ideological and partisan political considerations of policymakers. In Argentina, the Peronist governments of Néstor and Cristina Kirchner launched and supported a state-centered microcredit program characterized by strict loan conditions and direct state grants for capital and operational costs to existing non-profit organizations that were largely supportive of Peronism. Provinces and municipalities governed by anti-Peronists refused to participate. As a result, the National Microcredit Program has come to mimic past patronage based policies to a significant extent, engendering dependency on government resources, and thereby threatening its long-term viability. This article explores the impact of the left’s ideological and political project on microcredit policy, implementation, and outcomes in Argentina.
Topic:
Regulation, Microcredit, Leftist Politics, and Credit
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

28. Unusual Bedfellows? PRI– PVEM Electoral Alliances in Mexican Legislative Elections

Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We examine the electoral alliances between two Mexican political parties – the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM). Despite the PRI’s electoral dominance, it has entered into preelection agreements with the PVEM since 2003. These electoral pacts are unusual for several reasons: the parties do not share an ideology; their bases of support come from different social sectors; and the PRI’s survival as a party does not depend on these pacts. Using electoral data from 2006 to 2015, we examine the electoral districts in which the PRI and the PVEM ran joint candidates in federal legislative elections. We find that the ultimate goals of each party, their past electoral performances at the legislative district level, and the presence of PRI–PVEM alliances in gubernatorial elections explain the parties’ choices to collaborate in certain districts. Our findings have important implications for understanding the behavior of parties in newer democracies.
Topic:
Elections, Legislation, Local, Domestic Policy, and Party System
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

29. Nation or District? Evaluating the Territorial Scope of Bills through Experimental Designs

Author:
Emilia Simison
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the territorial scope of the bills presented by members of the Chamber of Deputies (the lower chamber of the Argentine National Congress) during Juan Domingo Perón’s first two terms in office (1946–1955). Its main objective is to observe the effect that modifying the electoral system (switching from incomplete party ballots in multimember districts to relative majorities in single-member districts) had on that scope. Experimental techniques (an interrupted time-series and a within-subjects design) are used to analyze a novel database including every bill presented in the Chamber of Deputies during the period in question. Contrary to theoretical expectations, an increase is observed in the share of bills with a territorial scope that goes beyond deputies’ districts – especially for those presented by legislators from the opposition and from larger provinces. In addition, by separately analyzing the effect on the ruling party and the opposition, the paper uncovers a plausible explanation for previous nonconclusive findings.
Topic:
Nationalism, Domestic politics, Legislation, and Local
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

30. Armed Forces, Police and Crimefighting in Latin America

Author:
David Pion-Berlin and Miguel Carreras
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, the armed forces have increasingly been asked to take an active role in the fight against the rampant crime in Latin America. Since the militaries in this region are not always trained to conduct themselves with restraint, the possibility of excesses and human rights violations is always latent. Despite that prospect, there is a high level of public support for military counter-crime interventions throughout the region. The key argument in this article is that when the Latin American public supports military interventions to combat crime, it makes a comparative judgment call about the relative efficacy of military vs. police conduct in domestic security roles. Latin American citizens have very low confidence in the capacity of the police to fight crime effectively and to respect human rights. They place more trust in the armed forces as an institution capable of performing effectively and in accordance with human rights standards and the rule of law. This study develops these arguments in greater detail and then turns to recent Americas Barometer surveys that clearly show that Latin American citizens place more trust in the armed forces than the police as an institution capable of effectively and humanely fighting criminal violence.
Topic:
Crime, Law Enforcement, Police, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America