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21. China's Foreign- and Security-policy Decision-making Processes under Hu Jintao

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Since 1979, foreign- and security-policy-making and implementation processes have gradually and substantially changed. New modes of operation that have consolidated under Hu Jintao, actually took shape under Jiang Zemin in the 1990s, and some, under Deng Xiaoping. While the military's role has diminished, that of diplomats, experts, and bureaucracies dealing with trade, international economic relations, energy, propaganda and education has increased. Decision making in this area has remained highly centralized and concentrated in the supreme leading bodies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). However, China's globalization and decentralization, as well as the increasing complexity of its international interests, have intensified the need to better coordinate the activities of the various CCP and state organs involved in foreign and security policy; hence, the growing importance of the CCP leading small groups (foreign affairs, national security, Taiwan, etc.). But the rigidity of the current institutional pattern has so far foiled repeated attempts to establish a National Security Council.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

22. China's Climate- and Energy-security Dilemma: Shaping a New Path of Economic Growth

Author:
Karl Hallding, Guoyi Han, and Marie Olsson
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
China is undergoing modernization at a scale and speed the world has never witnessed. As climate change increasingly dominates the global agenda, China faces the challenge of shaping a new growth path in a climate-constrained world. The paper argues that China's current climate and energy policy is, at best, a “repackaging” of existing energy and environmental strategies with co-benefits for the mitigation of climate change. Nevertheless, even though policies are not climate-change driven, the quick (rhetorical) endorsement of low-carbon development and the strong momentum of green technologies indicate that political ambitions are in favour of finding a more sustainable development pathway. A new growth path would, how-ever, require a fundamental shift, with development and energy strategies being set within climate security constraints. The eventual success of this new path remains uncertain.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
China

23. Creating Multilevel Security Governance in South America

Author:
Daniel Flemes and Michael Radseck
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South America's security agenda demands the simultaneous management of domestic crises, interstate conflicts and transnational threats. Though located at different systemic levels (national, international, transnational), the three conflict clusters are often interrelated and tend to overlap in the region's border areas. The region's policy makers, aware of this highly complex agenda and in spite of their striking differences, have tended to build regional structures of authority that coordinate, manage and rule collective responses to these threats. In addition, the unilateral, bilateral and multilateral structures and the region's capabilities to solve conflicts have become more important than the respective inter‐ American bodies over the past decade. Given this shift in the management of regional security affairs, we ask if a multilevel approach on the part of an overarching security architecture is more effective than separate governance schemes regarding each specific security threat. Since neither the traditional models of power balancing and alliance building nor the security‐community approach can sufficiently explain the region's security dynamics, we assume and provide evidence that different systems of security governance overlap and coexist in South America.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

24. Gain Seeking in a "Double Security Dilemma": The Case of OPEC

Author:
Ellinor Zeino-Mahmalat
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The remarkable stability of the cooperation among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has generally been explained by these members' mutual dependency on high and stable oil revenues. Since the OPEC countries, however, face the double security dilemma of both domestic and external security threats, they are not simply eager to secure (absolute) oil revenues for the sake of domestic stability; they are also sensitive to the (relative) oil revenues of their competing or even conflicting partners. The existing approaches of rational egoism and defensive positionalism have proven to be rather inadequate in explaining this kind of gain-seeking behavior. This paper therefore develops the new theoretical approach of “gain-seeking mentalities,” with the objective of tracing variations in OPEC members' gain-seeking behaviors. Using this approach, the empirical assessment of Iran and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and Iraq during the Gulf War of 1990/91 shows the extent to which Iran and Iraq altered their gain-seeking behavior as a result of a changing constellation of threats.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Intelligence, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

25. Structural Stability: On the Prerequisites of Nonviolent Conflict Management

Author:
Andreas Mehler, Lena Giesbert, Jenny Kuhlmann, Christian von Soest, and Ulf Engel
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The concept of “structural stability” has been gaining prominence in development policy circles. In the EU's and the OECD Development Assistance Committee's (OECD DAC) understanding, it describes the ability of societies to handle intra-societal conflict without resorting to violence. This study investigates the preconditions of structural stability and tests their mutual interconnections. Seven dimensions are analyzed: (1) long-term economic growth, (2) environmental security, (3) social equality, (4) governmental effectiveness, (5) democracy, (6) rule of law, and (7) inclusion of identity groups. The postulated mutual enhancement of the seven dimensions is plausible but cannot be proven. The most significant positive relationship appears between “democracy” and “rule of law,” respectively, on the one hand and the dependent variable “violence/ human security” on the other hand. This points to the usefulness of the political concept of structural stability to promote development policy agendas in this area at least. Applications that reach beyond these initial findings will, however, require further research.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and International Political Economy

26. Developing a Contextually Relevant Concept of Regional Hegemony: The Case of South Africa, Zimbabwe and "Quiet Diplomacy"

Author:
Miriam Prys
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Africa's “quiet diplomacy” has been often used to reject the notion of South African leadership or regional hegemony in southern Africa. This article finds that this evaluation is founded on a misguided understanding of regional hegemony, which is based on conventional hegemony theories that are mostly derived from the global role of the United States after World War II. Alternatively, this article uses a concept of hegemony that, for example, takes into account the “regionality” of South Africa's hegemony, which both allows external actors to impact on regional relations and allows South Africa to pursue its foreign policy goals on the global level of international politics. This concept helps to systemically analyze South Africa's foreign policy in the Zimbabwean crisis and to better integrate this policy into the broader framework of its regional and global ambitions.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

27. Discourses on Violence in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua: Youth, Crime, and the Responses of the State

Author:
Peter Peetz
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the social construction of youth violence in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and El Salvador on the one hand, and the related security policies of the three states, on the other. In each country, there is an idiosyncratic way of constructing youth violence and juvenile delinquency. Also, each country has its own manner of reaction to those problems. In El Salvador youths are socially constructed as a threat to security, and the state implements predominantly repressive policies to protect citizens against that threat. In Nicaragua and Costa Rica, where the social discourse on youth violence is less prominent, the state's policies are neither very accentuated nor very coherent, whether in terms of repressive or nonrepressive measures. There are strong relations and mutual influences between the public's fear (or disregard) of youth violence and the state's policies to reduce it.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Civil Society
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

28. Discourses on Violence in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua: Social Perceptions in Everyday Life

Author:
Sebastian Huhn
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Central America has the reputation of being a violent region with high crime rates, youth gangs, drug traffic, and ubiquitous insecurity. Politicians, the media, and social scientists in and outside the region often claim that the societies are in complete agreement with their judgment of the situation and that all society members are calling for law and order and social segregation. Focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, the paper analyzes the social perception of violence and crime. On the basis of essays written by secondary school students and interviews with citizens from all walks of life in the three countries, the paper points out how elite arguments on violence and crime are translated into everyday life, and what society members suggest be done to deal with these problems. The sources prove that there are noticeable hegemonic discourses on violence and crime in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Simultaneously, a majority of the respondents call for social and integrative solutions rather than the so-called “iron fist.” The repressive trend in Central American policies therefore does not necessarily receive the presumed affirmation asserted by many authorities on and in the region.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Nicaragua

29. Not Always in the People's Interest: Power-sharing Arrangements in African Peace Agreements

Author:
Andreas Mehler
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Peace agreements form a crucial element of strategies to bring security from outside: they involve third-party mediators during the negotiation stage and often peacekeeping troops to guarantee the agreement at an implementation stage. Peace roundtables usually involve top politicians and military leaders, who negotiate, sign, and/or benefit from the agreement. What is usually and conspicuously absent from peace negotiations is broad-based participation by those who should benefit in the first place: citizens. More specifically, the local level of security provision and insecurity production is rarely taken into account. This paper reviews parts of the academic de bate on power sharing and war termination, touching on some key findings by the main researchers working on the topic. The ambivalent African experience with Arend Lijphart's four main ingredients of consociational democracy (grand coalition, minority veto, proportional representation, group autonomy) is summarized. Recent major African peace agreements (1999-2007) are analyzed, and their power-sharing content detailed. Most agreements contain some—though varying— power-sharing devices. Most striking is the variation regarding the important question of who is sharing power with whom. Obviously, only those present at the negotiation table can really count on being included in major ways. Finally, three country cases are analyzed over a longer time period: Côte d'Ivoire (2002-2007), Liberia (1994-2003), and Central African Republic (1996-2007). The conclusion focuses on the factors of failure of peace agreements that place a heavy emphasis on power sharing.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Africa

30. Breaking the “Insecurity Trap”? How Violence and Counter-violence are Perpetuated in Elite Power Struggles.

Author:
Andreas Mehler
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Half a century after independence, African elites, at least those in conflict ridden countries, often live in constant fear for their life. Real or invented coup attempts, political assassinations, beatings of opposition leaders, the distribution of death lists, etc. have a profoundly traumatizing and self perpetuating effect. Purges, not least in the security apparatus, are not uncommon, particularly after changes in government, be they peaceful or violent. These purges come at a cost: the excluded elites are frequently tempted to use violence to come back into the “dining room”­and the excluding government tries to prevent reentry by all means.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Central African Republic, and Ivory Coast