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21. Europe’s Multiple Futures: Four Futurescapes for Europe’s Geopolitical Positioning in 2030

Author:
Tim Bosch, Paloma Muñoz Quick, Elisabeth Suh, Dominik Tolksdorf, and Georgios Kolliarakis
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report provides distinct storylines envisioning Europe's potential futures up to 2030. Contrary to traditional binary evaluations, these four scenarios avoid direct labeling as "good" or "bad." They delve into crucial drivers, from labor market integration to global affairs such as Russia-Ukraine conflict and Europe-China relations. Addressing the urgent need for "futures literacy" among policymakers and experts, this initiative by DGAP experts offers interpretative frameworks for upcoming challenges. Rather than predicting specifics, the scenarios prompt reconsideration of narratives and introduce counter-intuitive thinking modes for addressing global shifts and foreign policy challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Future, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

22. Security, Industry, and the Lost European Vision (#EDINA II): How Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Changing the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base

Author:
Christian Mölling and Sören Hellmonds
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The DGAP, in collaboration with the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation, initiated the EDINA project to examine the post-2022 European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Drawing insights from defense experts across NATO members, the study highlights the evolving European defense landscape, emphasizing security of supply concerns and the balance between national and EU initiatives. The report underscores pivotal forthcoming decisions in Europe's defense amidst changing geopolitical dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

23. Strict and Uniform: Improving EU Sanctions Enforcement

Author:
Kim B. Olsen and Simon Fasterkjær Kjeldsen
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
For as long as the EU has been using sanctions as a foreign policy instrument, countering violations has been a challenge. With the EU rapidly expanding the breadth and depth of its sanctions, its ­institutions and member states must find ways to ensure stricter and more uniform enforcement to deter violations, enhance efficiency, and ensure a more level playing field for economic actors. The stakes are high: the success of the EU’s response to Russia’s military aggression hinges largely on effective sanctions, and the long-term legitimacy of the tool itself depends on its enforcement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

24. Managing Risks in the EU-China Economic Relationship

Author:
Claudia Schmucker and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
As the German Chancellor heads to Beijing – the first visit by a G7 leader since the pandemic began, Germany and the EU must reevaluate their approach to China, especially after the recent Communist Party Congress further cemented a system of uncontested authoritarian power. European unity is critical in dealing with China. Russia’s war in Ukraine has exposed Germany’s energy dependency and many Western companies have had to leave Russia. To be prepared for a possible escalation of geopolitical tensions with China, Germany needs to draw lessons and review critical dependencies and corporate risks. Better corporate risk management, a diversified trade policy, and a targeted industrial policy are necessary to manage economic risks.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Trade, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

25. US-Chinese Competition and Transatlantic Relations: Implications for Germany and Europe

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany is at risk of sustaining collateral damage in the face of intensifying US-Chinese competition and conflict. China’s ascendance and America’s desire to preserve the status quo lock Beijing and Washington into a classic security dilemma. The United States sees China as a potential regional hegemon in Asia and as an emerging global systemic challenger. China sees the United States as impeding its rise. Security competition is already well underway. So are geo-economic and geo-technological competition and conflict. For Germany, a position of relative neutrality or equidistance is not an option, it should consider pursuing a multi-track approach.
Topic:
Security, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

26. A Reliable Global Cyber Power: Cyberspace and Germany’s National Security Strategy

Author:
Valentin Weber
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Germany’s major allies have declared their roles in shaping cyberspace. The United States sees itself as a democratic, values-driven cyber power ready to impose substantial costs on adversaries engaged in nefarious conduct. The United Kingdom strives to be a responsible cyber power that eschews reckless behavior. France aims to operate as a stabilizing power that counters a destructive Russia and other malicious actors. But what kind of cyber power is Germany to be? As it draws up its first national security strategy, the country can rectify its lack of vision and narrative for its domestic and international cyberspace efforts. This policy brief proposes that Germany espouse a sober focus on reliability that links its cyberspace strategy to those of its allies, thereby providing a vital anchor for Western cybersecurity. To do this, Germany should:
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Strategic Stability, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

27. Germany’s Global Technology Diplomacy Strengthening Technology Alliances, Partnerships, and Norms-Setting Institutions

Author:
David Hagebölling and Tyson Barker
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The fusion of technological, geopolitical, and ideological ambitions is straining internet governance discourses, cyber norms diplomacy, technical standard-setting, and the global connectivity infrastructure. The German government has made support for global, open, and secure digital connectivity a centerpiece of its foreign policy. However, it has yet to make the shaping of a corresponding international technology agenda a strategic policy priority. To shape a global technology order that reflects Germany’s interests as a high-tech industrial economy and democratic society, the government should focus on realizing synergies with EU international digital policy, strengthening coordination with like-minded partners, and engaging with the Global South on an inclusive and democratic ­global digital agenda.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Norms, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

28. Technology and Industrial Policy in an Age of Systemic Competition: Safeguarding Germany’s Technology Stack and Innovation Industrial Strength

Author:
David Hagebölling and Tyson Barker
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
As one of the world’s most globalized economies, Germany is confronting a challenging international environment characterized by ag-gressive subsidies, a global race for control of key technologies such as advanced chips, and vulnerable supply chains for critical compo-nents. Increased energy costs – induced by Russia’s war on Ukraine – are also straining Germany’s industrial model. Germany’s industrial economy is simultaneously undergoing a fundamental transformation from precision-based engineering to sys-tems-based manufactured products. With this shift, a competitive digital technology stack is becoming a key repository for future industri-al competitiveness. Yet, the country struggles to capture value in fast-growing markets like that for cloud and edge infrastructure. It also faces risks from its exposure to untrustworthy technology vendors and potential geopolitical disruptions to fragile hardware supply chains. The German government is consequently drawing the contours of a new technology-industrial policy. This effort, however, suffers from uneven implementation and the complexities of eff ectively coordinating subnational (across the Länder) and supranational (across the EU) industrial policy. To effectively preserve its economic competitiveness, the German government should conduct a systematic assessment of the country’s strengths and vulnerabilities in critical technology, increase the cohesiveness between federal and state government initiatives, and work internationally – within the EU and with like-minded partners beyond – to leverage comparative advantages.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

29. Germany’s Economic Security and Technology: Optimizing Export Control, Investment Screening and Market Access Instruments

Author:
Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Technological development and increasingly fraught US-China competition have geopolitical consequences for technology access. The erosion of post-Cold War multilateral dual-use technology export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, and investment and other control frameworks have led to na-tional, EU, and ad hoc measures, such as the restrictions on Russian semiconductor access following the invasion of Ukraine. The German government must integrate technology access and control instruments – export controls, FDI screening, critical infrastructure access, research protection, and outbound investment– in its Digital Strategy and National Security Strategy. The former currently neglects critical technology access and control; the latter must address it comprehensively. German – and EU – dual-use export and FDI screening reforms have been updated and are now in place. Capacity building and alignment with EU and NATO partners now deserves greater attention. Measures could include more robust, institutionalized information-sharing and consultations on dual-use technology export, import, investment, and research controls in a Multilateral Technology Control Committee born out of the G7 or TTC. The commit-tee should also establish the capacity to deny end-user access to German technology through its own Foreign-Direct Product Rules and Entity List.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30. A German Digital Grand Strategy: Integrating Digital Technology, Economic Competitiveness, and National Security in Times of Geopolitical Change

Author:
Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report systematically outlines the state of play in digital policy and Berlin’s current policy approach. It provides 48 recommendations for strengthening Germany’s efforts to build a confident, high-performing European digital economy embedded in an open, democratic, and rules-based digital order.
Topic:
Economics, National Security, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe