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11. Linking an EU emission reduction target beyond 20 % to energy security in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, Kai-Olaf Lang, and Martin Kremer
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Central and Eastern European Member States are expected to play a key role in the debate around future EU climate policy, including the potential move beyond a 20% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target by 2020. Hungary and Poland hold the rotating EU Presidency in 2011, and energy security has been placed as a priority issue on both Presidency agendas. At the same time, energy security is a key issue in climate policy, particularly for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States. Hungary's ambassador for Energy Security, Mihaly Bayer, made the link explicit, saying “if we can settle energy security then we can deal with climate change more calmly”. It is important to gain an understanding of the actual underpinnings of the energy security debate in CEE, and of the impact of a more stringent 2020 reduction target for this region.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Hungary

12. A climate of consensus: The UNFCCC faces challenges of legitimacy and effectiveness

Author:
Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Cancún climate meeting adopted a package of decisions to numerous standing ovations. However, it did so against loud and formal protests from Bolivia, stretching the concept of “consensus” more than ever before within the UN climate regime. The Cancún meeting also brought to everyone's attention the inconvenient truth that decision-making in the UNFCCC exists in a legal vacuum. The Conference of the Parties has never agreed its Rules of Procedure, and has during its 17-year history operated with draft Rules of Procedure without voting rules, under a general agreement that decisions are taken by “consensus”. In the light of the dramatic events in the recent Copenhagen and Cancún meetings, as well as the daunting prospects of achieving a ratifiable legal instrument for post-2012, it is clear that the relationship between consent and authority has become too flimsy to provide an unproblematic basis of legitimacy for the UNFCCC's decision-making. The 2000s led to the erosion of UNFCCC's legitimacy as a decision-making arena, especially in the subjective views of Northern governments as well as considerable parts of the expert community and the public in general. This trend led to an outburst of UN scepticism after the Copenhagen meeting, declaring the UN climate regime to be a “multilateral zombie”. While the Cancún meeting has been criticised with arguments based on process and legitimacy, from a broader perspective it seems likely that achieving decisions with some substance is actually the primary need in securing the legitimacy of the UN process. Had the Cancún agreement been negotiated outside the UN, it would very likely have been weaker on several fronts. Also, it is important to keep the longer term option for a legally binding treaty open; the only institutional possibility for this lies within the UNFCCC.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

13. The EU and the global climate regime: Getting back in the game

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Kristian Tangen
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Copenhagen climate summit was seen as a set-back for the eu. It was left out of the final meeting between the usa and major developing countries which lead to the Copenhagen Accord, and had to accept a deal that fell below its expectations. Due to the impact of the economic crisis, the eu's current target of a unilateral 20 % reduction is no longer as impressive as it seemed in 2007–2008; this is undermining the eu's claim to leadership. In order to match the higher pledges of Japan, Australia and the us, as well as shoulder its fair share of the industrialized countries' aggregate 30 % reduction, the eu would have to pledge a 35 % reduction. The eu's practise of attaching conditionalities to its higher target gives it very little leverage. However, there might be a case for the eu to move unilaterally to a 30 % reduction in order to accelerate the decarbonisation of its economy and capture new growth markets. Doing so could support stronger policy development in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and help rebuild trust among developing countries. But on its own it would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on the position of the other big players—the usa, China, India, and Brazil. The incoherence of the eu's support of a “singe legal outcome” from the Copenhagen summit, based on the elements of the Kyoto Protocol, was a major cause for its isolation. The us remains domestically unable to commit to this type of a ratifiable treaty while developing countries are not yet ready to commit to absolute targets. A return to a two-track approach, involving the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the negotiation of a new instrument for the usa and major developing countries, may be a more politically and practically feasible approach, while retaining the goal of working towards a legally binding instrument for all key participants over time.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, India, Brazil, and Australia

14. Can the EU budget support climate policy in Central and Eastern Europe?

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Agata Hinc
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In October 2010 the Commission released the long-awaited review of the EU budget, setting out the parameters of the debate around the next financial perspective, 2014-2020. The Budget Re view outlined a rather conservative programme for reform of the Cohesion and Common Agricultural Policy, largely envisaging the preservation of existing objectives and instruments. However, policymakers have also called for a stronger integration of EU climate policy with EU fiscal policy, particularly with regard to the Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States; the budget has also been proposed as a mechanism to compensate for the potential loss of surplus Assigned Amount Units under the Kyoto Protocol. Likewise, the 20/20/20 climate and energy targets were placed at the heart of the EU 2020 strategy. The question therefore arises: What role should the EU budget play in supporting climate policy in CEE Member States?
Topic:
Climate Change and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

15. Oil or Climate Politics? Avoiding a Destabilising Resource Split in the Arab Middle East

Author:
Mari Luomi
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Middle East is considered to be one of the regions most vulnerable to the negative impacts of global climate change. These adverse impacts will be most sharply felt by the poorest and weakest states of the region, and especially those with already scarce water resources. Despite clear indications regarding future negative impacts of climate change to the region, the Arab states of the Middle East still do not perceive climate change as a threatening factor to their economic development and stability in the future.
Topic:
Climate Change and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

16. The Odd Couple? The Merits of Two Tracks in the International Climate Change Negotiations

Author:
Kristian Tangen
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
It is far from certain that a strong, legally-binding climate agreement preferred by the EU will produce better environmental results than the broader and weaker scheme proposed by the USA. By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, countries that are listed in Annex B of the protocol also committed themselves to inscribe new emission reduction targets for the period after 2012. The push by some countries for a single legal outcome to replace the Kyoto Protocol has antagonized developing countries, who see this as an attempt by the developed countries to back out of their commitments. In terms of environmental results and the negotiation dynamics there are significant merits to a system where one group of countries takes on legally binding commitments under the Kyoto Protocol for the post-2012 period, and another group of countries take on less binding commitments under the Climate Change Convention. Such a system could broaden participation by including countries not yet ready to accede to a legally-binding instrument (i.e. the USA and major developing countries), while preserving the operational detail of the Kyoto Protocol to serve as a benchmark for the development of the climate regime going forward.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States

17. Ghosts of crises past: Comparing Japanese policy effectiveness in the 1970s oil crises and contemporary climate change

Author:
Alexandru Luta
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Due to the immense strain they put on policymakers, the oil crises of the 1970s and the contemporary challenge of anthropogenic global warming must represent two of the greatest tests of Japanese energy policy of the past 50 years. As such, the policy response to the oil crises had been effective, but the challenges posed by global warming have not been met with equal success–and this situation partly stems from the measures adopted in response to the previous crisis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan

18. Elephant in the room: The new G77 and China dynamics in climate talks

Author:
Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
As immediate emotions after Copenhagen COP-15 have faded, space is opening for more measured and systematic reflections on the lessons of the multilateral climate process. One key issue in global climate talks is the current state of the Group of 77 and China block of developing countries—its growing differences, and sources of solidarity.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China

19. Tools for building EU climate concensus: Bringing the CEE Member States on board

Author:
Anna Korppoo and Thomas Spencer
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the lack of a global agreement in Copenhagen, momentum remains for the further development of EU climate policy, as indeed it does in many other countries. A 2010 Deutsche Bank report surveying the development of climate policies worldwide concluded that "…'the race is on' for countries to achieve a green economy". A wide range of EU initiatives on energy and climate are expected this year, providing opportunities to enhance the coherence and impact of EU policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Euros for low-carbon development Finance as a stumbling block to the EU's position for Copenhagen

Author:
Tuuli Mäkelä
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The international community is currently in the midst of negotiating a follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, due to be concluded at Copenhagen in December this year. The European Union has so far taken extensive measures internally to comply with its commitment under the Protocol, and has thereby led the global effort to slow down climate change. At Bali in December 2007, the European Union played an active role in brokering a deal with developing countries on the Copenhagen building blocks, while US climate politics were still largely in gridlock.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe