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1. High hopes, low expectations – Brussels’ perspective on the future of Europe after COVID-19

Author:
European Policy Centre
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
A new report details the Brussels community's views on the EU's handling of the pandemic and the future of Europe after COVID-19. The COVID-19 crisis has sent shockwaves through societies and economies, altering the parameters of politics in Europe and beyond. Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) at this make-or-break moment in European history. In the eyes of many Brussels-based stakeholders, this places enormous responsibility on Berlin's shoulders. They would like the German Presidency and particularly Angela Merkel to bridge existing divisions among the EU27 and use the crisis as an opportunity to promote closer European integration. However, there is scepticism that Germany can achieve this in its short six-month period at the helm of the Council. A similar duality of hopes and expectations also transpires from how different actors in Brussels perceive the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE): they acknowledge this initiative's potential for much-needed EU reform, but also doubt that it will produce meaningful results. These opinions are some of the headline findings emerging from a study undertaken between July and August 2020 by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), the European Policy Centre (EPC) and ifok. 224 individuals from 29 EU and non-EU countries (with Germans slightly overrepresented at 32%) completed an online questionnaire about their main concerns and expectations for the German Presidency in light of the current situation and concerning the Union's long-term future. Respondents ranged from a high number of members of European institutions (30%), think tanks (21%) and non-governmental organisations to business representatives (17%), plus a smaller proportion of diplomats, journalists and academics. The project partners also conducted 20 personal interviews with high-level Brussels-based stakeholders to deepen the quantitative information collected via the online survey. Overall, Brussels-based stakeholders are worried about the current state of European integration and 'dream big' for the Union's future. However, they do not call for deeper European integration as an end in itself. Their support for potential treaty change as an outcome of the upcoming CoFoE, for example, is conditional upon the actual need to amend the Union's primary law. Likewise, their ambitions to advance EU cooperation is mitigated by a healthy dose of realism: they recognise the resilience of existing dividing lines between member states and have come to accept the idea that differentiated integration is the most probable course of action from here on out.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

2. COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘euro crisis’

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg and Janis Emmanouilidis
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
As the EU – and the world beyond – continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, Janis A. Emmanouilidis and Fabian Zuleeg look back at a previous time of intense pressure and discord in the Union, the euro crisis, to glean valuable lessons and traps to avoid. They argue that the EU cannot afford to stall the process of unconditional solidarity any further. The legitimacy of the Union is at stake. The 2010-2015 euro crisis already highlighted the implications of a highly interdependent Union; the importance of acting quickly, forcefully and boldly; and the need to roll out decisive joint action and an effective European strategy. Emmanouilidis and Zuleeg apply these lessons to today’s health crisis to remind European, national and regional leaders that we stand together, and fall together. Unconditional solidarity guided by the principle of enlightened self-interest will be the Union’s answer to the crisis. Secondly, the EU should act early and forcefully if they are to get ahead of the curve. The Union should thus jointly set up and finance a common COVID-19 recovery and growth fund, and then implement a coordinated European ‘exit management strategy’. Rather than concentrating on one particular instrument, the EU institutions should assemble a convincing package deal that is explicitly supported by member states. Finally, all EU leaders must recognise that absolutist positions will undermine the search for an effective European strategy to manage and eventually overcome the COVID-19 crisis. Disunity, fragmentation and distrust will result in failure – not only for the crisis but also for the foundation of the Union itself.
Topic:
European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

3. Europe’s path to strategic recovery: Brace, empower and engage

Author:
Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
EU leaders should rise to the challenge posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and set the Union on the course of not only economic, but fully-fledged strategic recovery. This means strengthening Europe’s cohesion and resilience; leveraging Europe’s untapped potential to carry its full weight on the global stage; and engaging in upholding rules-based cooperation. If Europe fails to measure up to the task, the EU will drift towards more political fragmentation and strategic dependence. The health crisis has not only heightened but also highlighted Europe’s vulnerability to global challenges and disorder. The pandemic risks amplifying geopolitical competition, which is undermining multilateral cooperation at a time when sound management of our interdependence is crucial. Under such conditions, the dysfunction of the global order may lead to irretrievable system failure, with dire consequences for all. Europeans should not only craft a decisive response to the pandemic but also use it as a springboard to reinforce the EU and its domestic power base on the global stage. The EU and its member states must prepare to cope with power politics without endorsing its logic. They should become more strategic and, where need be, more autonomous. Discussion on a recovery fund should not be limited to the financial dimension, but instead thought of in terms of ‘grand strategy’. Socioeconomic recovery is the fuel of political cohesion, which in turn is the engine of a stronger Europe in the world. A more powerful Europe is the only vehicle geared to protect EU citizens from the many external challenges and project Europe’s interests on the global stage.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Recovery, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe