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Begin New Search Political Geography Latin America Publishing Institution Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)

1. Elite Political Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts

Author:
Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, and Aila M. Matanock
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Citizens are often asked to evaluate peace agreements seeking to end civil conflicts, by voting on referendums or the negotiating leaders or, even when not voting, deciding whether to cooperate with the implementation of policies like combatant reintegration. In this paper, we assess how citizens form attitudes towards the provisions in peace agreements. These contexts tend to have high polarization, and citizens are asked to weigh in on complex policies, so we theorize that citizens will use cues from political elites with whom they have affinity, and, without these cues, information will have less effect. We assess our theory using survey experiments in Colombia. We find citizens rely on political elites’ cues to form their opinion on a peace agreement’s provisions, with the direction depending on the citizen’s affinity with the political elites. Additional information about these policies has little effect. The paper suggests that even these high stakes decisions can be seen as political decisions as usual.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Citizenship, Conflict, Peace, and Elites
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

2. The Geography of Dictatorship and Support for Democracy

Author:
Mounu Prem, Pablo Muñoz, Luis R. Martınez, Felipe González, and Marίa Angélica Bautista
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
We show that proximity to military bases during the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile (1973-1990) exposed civilians to more state repression and led to (i) stronger electoral opposition to Pinochet and (ii) a long-lasting strengthening of democratic values. Our empirical strategy exploits the location of military bases during the many decades of democratic rule before the military coup, which we show is unrelated to pre-coup electoral outcomes. We find that residents of counties housing these bases both registered and voted “No” to Pinochet’s continuation in power at higher rates in the crucial 1988 plebiscite that bolstered the democratic transition. These counties also experienced more civilian deaths and forced disappearances during the dictatorship, indicating that increased exposure to repression affected voters’ behavior. After democratization, residents of these counties who were exposed to the military coup report greater support for democracy in surveys, but there are no persistent effects on electoral outcomes.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Democracy, Military Intervention, Coup, Voting, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Latin America and Chile

3. Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

Author:
Jorge Tamayo, Anant Nyshadham, Carlos Medina, and Gaurav Khanna
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Canonical models of crime emphasize economic incentives. Yet, causal evidence of sorting into criminal occupations in response to individual-level variation in incentives is limited. We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellίn over a decade. We exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive benefits if not formally employed, to test whether a higher cost to formal-sector employment induces crime. Regression discontinuity estimates show this policy generated reductions in formal-sector employment and a corresponding spike in organized crime, but no effects on crimes of impulse or opportunity.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Political Economy, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

4. Brothers or Invaders? How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior

Author:
Sandra Rozo and Juan Vargas
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Can voter’s negative attitudes toward immigration be explained by self-interest or sociotropic motives? Self-interested voters care about their personal economic circumstances. Sociotropic voters display in-group bias and perceive migrants as threats to their culture. We study the voting effects of forced internal and international migration in Colombia and exploit the disproportionate flows of migrants to municipalities with early settlements of individuals from their origin locations. In line with the sociotropic hypothesis, we find that only international migration inflows increase political participation and shift votes from left- to right-wing ideologies. These results are not accounted for by the observed changes caused by migrants in socioeconomic variables.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Ideology, and Voting
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

5. Does Counterinsurgent Success Match Social Support? Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Colombia

Author:
Aila M. Matanock and Miguel García-Sánchez
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Dominant theories of counterinsurgency suggest that state forces must win over citizens to identify insurgents among them. Yet even where state forces are losing, polling shows consistently strong support for counterinsurgents. How can we explain this discrepancy? It could be that the dominant theory of counterinsurgency is incorrect, or, as we posit, it could be that individuals systematically falsify their preferences. This study builds on the intuition that individuals may feel pressure and potentially fear that encourages them to report consistently strong support for the military when asked directly—even, perhaps especially, when they rely on an illegal organization or an illicit economy for their livelihood. We argue that this pressure decreases when individuals are asked indirectly, in a way that allows them to conceal their response. We thus assess whether support for the military is lower when measured indirectly than directly and whether the difference is more pronounced in areas of insurgent control. We test this theory of preference falsification, as well as its novel implications about spatial variation, by randomizing direct and indirect survey questions (a list experiment) in a face-to-face survey conducted across conflict contexts in Colombia.
Topic:
Development, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Military Affairs, Citizenship, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America