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81. Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Author:
Ben Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto, and Stephen Davenport
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In this project, we analyzed whether mobile phone-based surveys are a feasible and cost-effective approach for gathering statistically representative information in four low-income countries (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe). Specifically, we focused on three primary research questions. First, can the mobile phone survey platform reach a nationally representative sample? Second, to what extent does linguistic fractionalization affect the ability to produce a representative sample? Third, how effectively does monetary compensation impact survey completion patterns? We find that samples from countries with higher mobile penetration rates more closely resembled the actual population. After weighting on demographic variables, sample imprecision was a challenge in the two lower feasibility countries (Ethiopia and Mozambique) with a sampling error of +/- 5 to 7 percent, while Zimbabwe's estimates were more precise (sampling error of +/- 2.8 percent). Surveys performed reasonably well in reaching poor demographics, especially in Afghanistan and Zimbabwe. Rural women were consistently under-represented in the country samples, especially in Afghanistan and Ethiopia. Countries' linguistic fractionalization may influence the ability to obtain nationally representative samples, although a material effect was difficult to discern through penetration rates and market composition. Although the experimentation design of the incentive compensation plan was compromised in Ethiopia and Zimbabwe, it seems that offering compensation for survey completion mitigated attrition rates in several of the pilot countries while not reducing overall costs. These effects varied across countries and cultural settings.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia

82. Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and the Ethnic Divide in Guatemala

Author:
Nora Lustig, Maynor Cabrera, and Hilcías E. Morán
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Guatemala is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America and has the highest incidence of poverty. The indigenous population is more than twice as likely to be poor than the nonindigenous group. Fiscal incidence analysis based on the 2009-2010 National Survey of Family Income and Expenditures shows that taxes and transfers do almost nothing to reduce inequality and poverty overall or along ethnic and rural-urban lines. Persistently low tax revenues are the main limiting factor. Tax revenues are not only low but also regressive. Consumption taxes are regressive enough to offset the benefits of cash transfers: poverty after taxes and cash transfers is higher than market income poverty.
Topic:
Education and Government
Political Geography:
Latin America and Guatemala

83. The Third Way: Japan’s Policy on Nuclear Energy

Author:
Shinsuke Tomotsugu
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
On April 14, 2015, a Japanese court ordered a halt to the government’s plan to restart the Takahama Nuclear Power Plant. The ruling cited safety fears, whereas the Japanese nuclear regulatory watchdog had given the opera on its consent. There are currently 48 commercial reactors in Japan, all of which remain offline a er the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The Japanese government has been cri cized for its insistence on viewing nuclear energy as an important base‐load power source despite its official policy of reducing dependence on nuclear energy. But restar ng nuclear reactors—assuming that they meet the revised safety requirements—does not necessarily contradict that policy inasmuch as the transparency of the safety review process is guaranteed. Moreover, the issue is intertwined with broader concerns that extend beyond Japan’s borders, including U.S.‐Japan rela ons and the interna onal nonprolifera on regime. It is this interna onal context, o en overlooked in Japan and elsewhere, that makes it unrealis c and rather dangerous for Japan to immediately abandon nuclear energy altogether.
Topic:
International Security and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan

84. Creating Korea's Future Economy: Innovation, Growth, and Korea-US Economic Relations

Author:
Sean P. Connell
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Korean government's "creative economy" agenda reflects growing consensus that Korea's future growth and prosperity depends on its ability to become a global leader in developing and commercializing innovative new products, services, and business models. To succeed, the Korean government must address regulatory, structural, educational, and cultural obstacles that have constrained Korea's ability to fully utilize its innovative capacities. This new emphasis on innovation brings Korea into closer alignment with the United States, which has long focused on innovation in its growth strategies. Moreover, it comes during the early stages of implementation of the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), which intersects with important areas of Korea's innovation framework policies. Policymakers, businesses, and researchers in both countries should examine potential new opportunities to increase cooperation around initiatives aimed at fostering innovation and growth, both within the bilateral context and at a global level.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States

85. Democratic Change and Forest Governance in the Asia Pacific: Implications for Myanmar

Author:
Stephen McCarthy
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
While signs of democratization in a country may raise hopes of better natural resource governance, especially of forests, evidence from the Asia Pacific region in countries such as Indonesia and Cambodia demonstrates no significant relationship between a country's transition toward democracy and better forestry governance. Myanmar's transition to democracy is unlikely to counter this trend. Deeply vested interests operate within democratizing countries that outweigh the support inside governments or civil society for improving forestry conservation. Incumbents also stand to benefit directly from initiatives that promote free trade and further investment in the forestry sector at the expense of the environment and the most vulnerable in society. International organizations returning to Myanmar must fine-tune their policies to accommodate the local political economy of deforestation and should engage with elements on the periphery, dissenting voices inside the government, and a broad range of local civil society organizations. Failure to do so may exacerbate current trends and lead to future conflicts in the already volatile cease-fire areas.
Topic:
Agriculture, Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

86. Upgrading India's Electronics Manufacturing Industry: Regulatory Reform and Industrial Policy

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
India faces a fundamental puzzle. The country is a leading exporter of information-technology services, including knowledge-intensive chip design. Yet electronics manufacturing in India is struggling despite a huge and growing domestic market and pockets of world-class capabilities. To examine this puzzle the World Bank commissioned this study in May 2013 on behalf of the Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India, Raghuram Rajan (now the governor of the Reserve Bank of India). Drawing on extensive survey questionnaires and interviews with key industry players (both domestic and foreign) and relevant government agencies, this study identifies major challenges India-based companies face in engaging in electronics manufacturing. The analysis culminates in detailed policy suggestions for regulatory reform and support policies needed to unblock barriers to investment in this industry and to fast-track its upgrading through innovation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

87. The Shadow of Urbanization: The Periurban Interface of Five Indian Cities in Transition

Author:
Vishal Narain, Poulomi Banerjee, and Pooja Anand
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Periurban areas refer to areas at the periphery of cities. They provide the land and water resources needed for urban expansion, while receiving urban wastes. This paper describes the process of periurban expansion around five major Indian cities, namely, Patna, Guwahati, Chandigarh, Chennai and Ahmedabad. These cities have expanded under the current regime of neo-liberal policies, infrastructure development and real estate growth. As spaces in transition, periurban areas around these cities have absorbed much of the migrant population. However, the cities have grown beyond the carrying capacity; this has caused the ecological foot-print of the cities to spill over into the peripheries. While conventional approaches to urban planning and rural development create a dichotomy between rural and urban areas, the concept of periurban raises questions both about the sustainability and equity dimensions of urban expansion, also raising issues of the politics of urbanization.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
South Asia, Patna, Guwahati, Chandigarh, Chennai, and Ahmedabad

88. ASEAN Centrality and the ASEAN-US Economic Relationship

Author:
Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
ASEAN has become a focal point of the rapidly changing economic architecture of the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN members are increasingly stable and politically confident, and constitute an emerging economic powerhouse. The region is dynamic, with 600 million citizens and a gross domestic product (GDP) that exceeds $2 trillion and is expected to grow 6 percent annually for the next two decades. (The Appendix at the end of this paper reports detailed output and trade projections to 2025.) Through deeper internal integration via the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and external initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ASEAN is becoming a driving force in regional cooperation and a much-courted economic partner. The AEC and the RCEP projects are globally significant: the AEC could generate powerful demonstration effects for other developing regions, and the RCEP could become an important building bloc of the multilateral trading system.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

89. Global Trends of Multi-Factor Productivity

Author:
Jeong Yeon Lee
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Multi-factor productivity (MFP) compares the growth of gross domestic product with the growth of combined capital and labor inputs. The growth rate of MFP assumes theoretical significance because it represents the slope of the steady-state growth path, and hence is a major determinant of the long-term growth trend. This paper offers the balanced panel of the estimated growth rates of MFP for 24 OECD countries over 1986-2011. Based on the estimates of MFP growth, a number of notable trends in productivity growth are identified for the entire OECD area as well as three major economies – the United States, the Eurozone and Japan – within the OECD.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

90. Flexible Implementation: A Key to Asia's Transformation

Author:
Luke Simon Jordan and Katerina Koinis
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Despite the region's economic growth over the last few decades, countries across Asia still face the complex challenge of structural transformation. Low-income economies must build formal industrial and service sectors from agricultural and informal bases; middle-income economies must move up the value chain; and high-income economies must continually generate new capabilities at the frontier of innovation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia