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142. Breaking with the Past? Civil-Military Relations in the Emerging Democracies of East Asia
- Author:
- Aurel Croissant, David Kuehn, and Philip Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In recent decades, several East Asian nations have undergone democratic transitions accompanied by changes in the balance of power between civilian elites and military leaders. These developments have not followed a single pattern: In Thailand, failure to institutionalize civilian control has contributed to the breakdown of democracy; civil-military relations and democracy in the Philippines are in prolonged crisis; and civilian control in Indonesia is yet to be institutionalized. At the same time, South Korea and Taiwan have established civilian supremacy and made great advances in consolidating democracy. These differences can be explained by the interplay of structural environment and civilian political entrepreneurship. In Taiwan, Korea, and Indonesia, strategic action, prioritization, and careful timing helped civilians make the best of their structural opportunities to overcome legacies of military involvement in politics. In Thailand, civilians overestimated their ability to control the military and provoked military intervention. In the Philippines, civilian governments forged a symbiotic relationship with military elites that allowed civilians to survive in office but also protected the military's institutional interests. These differences in the development of civil-military relations had serious repercussions on national security, political stability, and democratic consolidation, helping to explain why South Korea, Taiwan, and, to a lesser degree, Indonesia have experienced successful democratic transformation, while Thailand and the Philippines have failed to establish stable democratic systems.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia
143. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
144. The Microeconomics of North-South Korean Cross-Border Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Economic integration between North and South Korea occurs through three modalities: traditional arm's-length trade and investment, processing on commission (POC) trade, and operations within the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In order, these three modalities are characterized by decreasing exposure of South Korean firms to North Korean policy and infrastructure. Through a survey of 200 South Korean firms operating in North Korea we find that these modalities of exchange matter greatly in terms of implied risk. For example, firms operating in the KIC are able to transact on significantly looser financial terms than those outside it. We find that direct and indirect South Korean public policy interventions influence these different modalities of exchange and thus impact entry, profitability, and sustainability of South Korean business activities in the North. In effect, the South Korean government has substituted relatively strong South Korean institutions for the relatively weak Northern ones in the KIC, thus socializing risk. As a result, the level and type of cross-border integration observed in the survey is very much a product of South Korean public policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Korea
145. Diverging Trajectories: Economic Rebalancing and Labor Policies in China
- Author:
- Boy Lüthje
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The transformation of work and labor policies is one of the most underresearched aspects of China's political economy in recent decades. Western perceptions of Chinese workplaces are mostly informed by images of privatization and downsizing of traditional state-socialist enterprises, or by the unfamous sweatshops serving the production networks of global brandname companies under miserable conditions However, recent research reveals that labor politics in China have become highly diversified, in spite of the apparently centralized character of the political regime. At the same time, labor conflicts are on the rise across industries and regions.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- China
146. Benevolent Benefactor or Insensitive Regulator? Tracing the Role of Government Policies in the Development of India's Automobile Industry
- Author:
- Rajnish Tiwari, Cornelius Herstatt, and Mahipat Ranawat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- India's automobile industry has witnessed an impressive run of sus - tained growth in the past two decades. The total number of vehicles produced in fiscal year 1990–91 was only 2.3 million, but by fiscal year 2009–10 this number had swelled to 14.1 million. Similarly, the value of automotive products exported by India was only US$198 million in 1990, but by 2009 the value had increased nearly twenty-five-fold to US$5 billion, representing an average annual growth rate of 26 percent and catapulting India into the league of the top fifteen exporters of automotive products worldwide
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
147. Executive Accountability in Southeast Asia: The Role of Legislatures in New Democracies and Under Electoral Authoritarianism
- Author:
- William Case
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In an influential study, Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig argue that “overarching institutional designs” (i.e., presidential, parliamentary, and dual systems) tell us less about the prospects of a new democracy than does the particular strength of the legislature. Specifically, executive abuses are best checked where legislatures are powerful, generating horizontal accountability. Indeed, Fish and Kroenig suggest that with judiciaries and watchdog agencies weak in most new democracies, the legislature is the only institution by which accountability can be imposed. What is more, ordinary citizens are better informed by the robust party systems that strong legislatures support, fostering vertical accountability. In comparing Freedom House scores with their Parliamentary Powers Index (PPI), Fish and Kroenig show clear correlations, leading them to conclude that democracies are made strong by legislatures that are empowered.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia
148. Evolution, Not Revolution: The US-NZ Security Partnership
- Author:
- David Capie and Robert Ayson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The most visible sign of the new warmth in the United States-New Zealand bilateral relationship was US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to New Zealand in November 2010, which culminated with the signing of the "Wellington Declaration." The 400-word document announced a US-NZ "strategic partnership" built on "practical cooperation" in the South Pacific, and enhanced dialogue including regular foreign minister level and political-military meetings. It also noted a joint commitment to tackle pressing challenges including climate change, nuclear proliferation, and extremism. In addition, there was a commitment to an expansion of US-NZ "commercial and trade relations." Robert Ayson and David Capie discuss the possible future direction of the developing US-NZ relationship.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Australia/Pacific, and New Zealand
149. Dealing with Davis: Inconsistencies in the US-Pakistan Relationship
- Author:
- Huma Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The nine-week standoff between the United States and Pakistan over the fate of Raymond Davis, an American arrested in Pakistan after shooting two men at a traffic stop, ended on March 16 with his sudden release from jail. Davis was freed under Islamic law, which allows a murderer to receive pardon from the family of his victims on payment of compensation, or “blood money” Religious parties protested the decision, stating that the law had been applied incorrectly to satisfy US demands for Davis' release. Still, media and analysts inside and outside Pakistan have termed the development a “win” for the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
150. A Step Too Far: Why CPGS Is The Wrong Answer to China's Anti-Access Challenge
- Author:
- Iskander Rehman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In March 1996, the waters of the Taiwan Strait were roiled by Chinese live missile firings and massive military exercises. Washington answered Beijing's blunt demonstration of coercive military diplomacy by promptly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the scene.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, and Taiwan