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101. Economic Analysis of Duck Production Household Farm Level in the Context of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:
Chinh C. Tran and John F. Yanagida
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Occurrence of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 usually results in the complete loss of the producer's entire flock due to high mortality rate and stamping out conducted to contain the virus. This study explores the expected economic impacts of HPAI H5N1 on smallholder duck producers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A conceptual model is developed to describe how a producer responds at each week of duck production to maximize profit and evaluate expected profits/losses of the producer in light of HPAI H5N1. The results suggests that in the case of no disease occurrence, the optimal time to sell ducks is at week 10 of the production cycle when ducks reach the age of 8 weeks. Maximum profit gained is US$805 for a producer with an average flock size of 794 ducks. However, the producer would suffer serious losses once the disease occurs. The expected investment loss is far higher than the maximum profit received at each production cycle and is estimated to be 3 times higher.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Infectious Diseases, and Food
Political Geography:
Vietnam

102. Policy Implications for Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in Conjunction with Risk Factors in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Chinh C. Tran, John F. Yanagida, and Sumeet Saksena
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The challenge is to develop the vaccination program that is more successful in containing and preventing the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 from recurrence in the Red River Delta, Vietnam and reducing vaccination costs. This study addresses the tradeoff between the current policy which implements an annual two-round vaccination for the entire geographical area of the Delta and an alternative policy which involves more frequent vaccination in higher probability areas for the disease occurrence within the Delta. The ex-ante analysis framework is used to identify the location of higher probability areas for the alternative policy and evaluate the accuracy of the analysis. The efficacy and cost analysis of vaccination programs are then implemented for the tradeoff between the current and the alternative policies. The ex-ante analysis suggests that the focus areas for the alternative vaccination program include 1137 communes, corresponding to 50.6% of total communes in the Delta and mostly located in the coastal areas to the east and south of Hanoi. The efficacy and cost analyses suggests that the alternative policy would be more successful in reducing the rate of disease occurrence and the costs of vaccination as compared to the current policy.
Political Geography:
Vietnam and United Nations

103. Perceived Risk of Avian Influenza in Poultry Varies with Urbanization in Vietnam

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Melissa L. Finucane, Sumeet Saksena, Nghiem Tuyen, James H. Spencer, Nguyen Lam, Trinh Dinh Thau, Tran Duc Vien, and Nancy D. Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an important public health concern because of its potential to cause widespread morbidity and mortality in humans and poultry and associated devastating economic losses. In this study we examined how perceptions of and response to the risk of HPAI in poultry vary across communes/wards in the north of Vietnam at different levels of urbanization (rural, transitional, urban). We conducted a quantitative household survey with 1073 respondents. Results suggested that the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry was highest in transitional and rural settings. Respondents in these settings were more likely than respondents in urban settings to agree that the process of change (in urbanization, agricultural practices, or natural habitat) increased the likelihood of an outbreak of HPAI in poultry. Compared with others, respondents in transitional areas reported that they do less planning and perceive vaccines to be more effective, while respondents in rural areas reported less perceived ability to separate infected poultry from others. We also found that the inability to respond is not necessarily because of an inability to perceive change but because, rapid and extensive change poses different challenges for poultry management as communes move from rural to transitional to urban settings. Our results suggest that public and animal health campaigns could be tailored in a way that recognizes the needs of poultry raisers in different settings.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam

104. Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, James Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, Nguyen Lam, Tran Duc Vien, Michael Epprecht, Chinh Tran, Melissa Finucane, and Bruce Wilco
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

105. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

106. Collective Self-Defense and US-Japan Security Cooperation

Author:
Ian E. Rinehart
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
If Japan decides to exercise its right of collective self-defense (CSD), it would have complex effects on US-Japan security cooperation. The tangible short-term outcomes would likely be rather modest, and mid-term outcomes are dependent on changes in complementary policies, laws, and attitudes. American observers who expect that a revised interpretation of Japan's Constitution will provide an immediate boost to the alliance are likely to be disappointed. There are institutional and legal limitations on the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) that will constrain its activities in the near-term, no matter what policy course leaders choose. Japanese public opinion is also highly circumspect about the use of force to resolve international problems and will likely not support missions that do not directly address the security of Japan. However, due to the powerful symbolism of CSD, the long-term effects could be quite significant.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, and Israel

107. Industrial Upgrading through Low-Cost and Fast Innovation—Taiwan's Experience

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper examines the forces that drive Taiwan's new strategy of "Upgrading through Low-Cost and Fast Innovation." The first section highlights characteristics of Taiwan's traditional "Global Factory" innovation model and examines the role of innovation policy in that model. Section 2 reviews fundamental weaknesses that define the requirements of Taiwan's new innovation strategy. Section 3 explores Taiwan's new strategy of "low-cost and fast innovation through domestic and global innovation networks." Finally, section 4 examines the role of government and key policies and initiatives in the IT industry.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Israel and Taiwan

108. Standards, Innovation, and Latecomer Economic Development—A Conceptual Framework

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Little is known about the impact of standards on the economic development of countries which are latecomers to industrial manufacturing and innovation. Standardization is regarded primarily as a technical issue, and hence receives only limited high-level policy support.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Health, Industrial Policy, and Labor Issues

109. Is the Information Technology Agreement Facilitating Latecomer Manufacturing and Innovation? India's Experience

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
A defining characteristic of today's international trading system is that plurilateral trade agreements like the Information Technology Agreement (ITA) are gaining in importance relative to the gridlocked Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations. These more selective trade agreements pose new and so far little understood challenges for the governance of the international trading system, especially with regard to the distribution of liberalization gains among participants which differ in their stage of development, their institutions, and their resources and capabilities.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia

110. The People Behind the Press: Building Social Capital in New Media Ecologies

Author:
Steve J. Fox
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to introduce an original framework in which new media ecologies can be understood to develop. Specifically, it examines the unique, world-leading online ecology of South Korea, to suggest how new forms of democratic process and social organisation can be emulated elsewhere. The discussion identifies and analyses several policy and cultural factors to distil three encompassing variables that comprise a framework for understanding the Korean situation, and the application of new technologies: structure, ethos and activity. Ultimately, it is a framework that may be used to investigate social organisation mechanisms that may potentiate news media's role in democratic society. This concept of social organisation is constructed around the notion of social capital and theorised as an infrastructure for new news media models. In the outcome, it is argued that news media could themselves become civic socialization mechanisms that encourage a more active and engaged citizenry, reflecting social capital's strong relationship with political participation, and thus a continuing foundational role for journalism in democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, and South Korea