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51. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

52. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

Author:
ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, and Israel

53. Who Should Bear the Cost of China's Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?

Author:
ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China's capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China's CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world's largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the carbon cost of exports. China certainly wants importers to cover some, if not all, of that costs. While China's stance is understandable, this paper has argued from a broad and balanced perspective that if this is pushed too far, it will not help to find solutions to this issue. On the contrary it can be to China's disadvantage for a number of reasons. However, aligning this responsibility with China does not necessarily suggest the sole reliance on domestic actions. In that context, the paper recommends specific actions that need to be taken internationally as well as domestically in order to effectively control the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

54. Is China's Indigenous Innovation Strategy Compatible with Globalization?

Author:
Xielin Liu and Peng Cheng
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
National innovation policies currently attract intense interest throughout the international community, particularly so in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. China is among those countries now relying heavily on government resources to drive innovation—a policy that directly challenges the prevalent theory that government powers have limited effects on a nation's innovation systems. Indeed, China's new indigenous innovation strategy has transformed the country's innovation systems. China's current indigenous innovation strategy is both constructive and efficient for an economy with clear targets for industrial innovation and working to catch up to international standards. For China to succeed as an innovative country it needs to provide more opportunity for market competition to incubate and generate radical innovations.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
China

55. Chinese Domestic Debates on Soft Power and Public Diplomacy

Author:
Maria Wey-Shen Siow
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Western debates and discussions surrounding China's soft power are more widely known than the discourse within China itself. While the broad parameters of Chinese discussions are fundamentally similar to those of their western counterparts, there are some variations as to how the Chinese perceive soft power. Soft power is after all a largely western concept that has only in recent years made inroads and found widespread acceptance within Chinese policy-making circles. However, broadly speaking, Chinese scholars and analysts agree with the definition of soft power as espoused by Joseph Nye, which is the use of attraction and persuasion in foreign policy, and the appeal of a country based on its culture, values, beliefs, policies, and way of life.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
China

56. Population Policy, Economic Reform, and Fertility Decline in Guangdong Province, China

Author:
Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Cui Hongyan
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper examines Guangdong's fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 and analyzes how it has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic development. Guangdong's economic development has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The effect of this migration on Guangdong's fertility is an important part of the story. Measures of fertility and nuptiality employed in the analysis include the total fertility rate, parity progression ratios, mean age at first marriage, mean age at first birth, and mean closed birth interval between first and second birth. These measures are calculated from birth histories reconstructed from data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census. An overlapping-trend analysis provides indications of the accuracy of the estimates.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
China and Israel

57. Climate Commitments to 2050: A Roadmap for China

Author:
ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Representatives of countries around the world are scheduled to meet in Copenhagen in December 2009, to try to hammer out a new regime for attacking climate change problems. No one would deny that the United States is committed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions—an essential part of a global pact—or that President Obama wants to demonstrate U.S. leadership in the debate.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

58. Crossing Borders, Changing Landscapes: Land-Use Dynamics in the Golden Triangle

Author:
Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Over the last half-century, public policy has affected land-use practices across the borders linking China, Thailand, and Laos. Political and economic reforms have facilitated labor mobility and a shift in agricultural practices away from staple grains and toward a diverse array of cash crops, rubber being one of the foremost. China has promoted the conversion of forests to rubber agroforestry in southern Yunnan--profitable for farmers, but a concern in terms of biodiversity and long-term viability. In Thailand, the response is at the other end of the spectrum as the government's concerns about land-use practices and watershed management have led to policies that dramatically constrain land-use practices and limit tenure rights. In Laos the future is not yet clear. Government policies provide weak support for both private land ownership and protected areas. In a global environment where national policy has such a dramatic effect on land use and land cover, the factors behind land-use change merit close examination.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

59. Ethno-Diplomacy: The Uyghur Hitch in Sino-Turkish Relations

Author:
Yitzhak Shichor
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Beginning in 1949, China considered, and dealt with, so-called Uyghur separatism and the quest for Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang) independence as a domestic problem. Since the early 1990s, however, Beijing has begun to recognize the international aspects of this problem and to deal with its external manifestations. This new policy has affected China's relations with Turkey, which has ideologically inspired Uyghur nationalism, offered sanctuary to Uyghur refugees, and provided moral and material support to Eastern Turkestan movements, organizations, and activities.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Minorities
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Turkey

60. Entrepreneurship and Political Guanxi Networks in China's Private Sector

Author:
Christopher A. McNally, Hong Guo, and Guangwei Hu
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Since the mid-1990s the Chinese government has rapidly liberalized the environment facing domestic private firms. As a consequence, many private firms have clarified their ownership relations and acquired stronger organizational boundaries. However, despite this formalization of private sector institutions, informal guanxi networks remain a key component in firm success. Most significant among these guanxi networks are political networks that connect private entrepreneurs with actors in China's political sphere.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel