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51. Policy Concerns of Low Fertility for Military Planning in South Korea

Author:
Elizabeth Hervey Stephen
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The South Korean military currently is the sixth-largest in the world. But years of low birth rates have resulted in declining numbers of young men available for military service, and the country now faces the pressing question of how to ensure national security in the face of inevitable troop reductions. Some options for offsetting this shrinking recruit pool (such as increasing fertility, increasing immigration, and increasing the number of women in the military) might seem obvious, but the complex economic, social, and cultural reality of South Korea make them unlikely to be embraced. The best focus for immediate action is to stabilize or increase service terms and to encourage development and implementation of high-tech security systems. While the recruit pool appears nearly adequate at present, South Korea must act quickly to develop the leaner, more diverse, and more technologically based military necessary for the country to maintain a viable military force.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, and South Korea

52. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:
Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

53. Korea's Growth Performance: Past and Future

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
South Korea is arguably the premier development success story of the last half century. For 47 years starting in 1963, the economy averaged 7 percent real growth annually, and experienced only two years of economic contraction: 1980 after the second oil shock and the assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and 1998 at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. At the start of that period South Korea had a per capita income lower than that of Mozambique or Bolivia; today it is richer than Spain or New Zealand, and was the first Asian and first non-G7 country to host a summit of the G20, the unofficial steering committee of the world economy.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, South Korea, Spain, Mozambique, New Zealand, and Bolivia

54. Executive Accountability in Southeast Asia: The Role of Legislatures in New Democracies and Under Electoral Authoritarianism

Author:
William Case
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In an influential study, Fish and Kroenig argue that "overarching institutional designs" (i.e., presidential, parliamentary, and dual systems) tell us less about the prospects of a new democracy than does the particular strength of the legislature. Specifically, executives are best checked where legislatures are powerful, generating horizontal accountability. In addition, ordinary citizens are better informed by the robust party systems that strong legislatures support, fostering vertical accountability. In comparing Freedom House scores with their Parliamentary Powers Index (PPI), Fish and Kroenig show clear correlations, leading them to conclude that democracies are made strong by legislatures that are empowered. In this monograph, this thesis is tested in five country cases in Southeast Asia: the Philippines and Indonesia, both new democracies, and Malaysia, Cambodia, and Singapore, cases of electoral authoritarianism. Analysis uncovers that in the new democracies, though their legislatures may be rated as powerful, members are geared less to checking the executive than to sharing in state patronage. In addition, although the legislature is evaluated as weak under electoral authoritarianism, it features an opposition that, with little access to patronage, remains committed to exposing executive abuses. What is more, when the executive operates a regime type that lacks the full legitimacy gained through general elections, he or she grows more receptive to at least mild legislative scrutiny. Contrary to Fish and Kroenig, then, this study concludes that the executive is held more accountable by legislatures under electoral authoritarianism than in new democracies. But rather than leading to a transition to democratic politics, this accountability strengthens authoritarian rule.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, Cambodia, and Singapore

55. Very Low Fertility in Asia: Is There a Problem? Can It Be Solved?

Author:
Sidney B. Westley, Robert D. Retherford, and Minja Kim Choe
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Fifty years ago, women in Asia were having, on average, more than five children each, and there was widespread fear of a “population explosion” in the region. Then birth rates began to fall—in several countries more steeply than anyone had anticipated. This unexpected trend has now raised concerns about the social and economic impact of extremely low fertility. Today, four of Asia's most prosperous economies—Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan—have among the lowest birth rates in the world. With women having, on average, only one child each, these societies have expanding elderly populations and a shrinking workforce to pay for social services and drive economic growth. And in Japan, overall population numbers are already going down. Why are women choosing to have so few children? How are policy- makers responding to these trends? Government leaders have initiated a variety of policies and programs designed to encourage marriage and childbearing, but to what effect? Given current social and economic trends, it is unlikely that Asia' s steep fertility decline will be reversed, at least not in the for eseeable future.
Topic:
Demographics, Health, and Population
Political Geography:
Japan, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and Singapore

56. Shaping the G20 Agenda in Asia: The 2010 Seoul Summit

Author:
Il SaKong
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This year marks a major transition for the G20, which was designated as the world's “premier forum for inter-national economic cooperation” at the Summit in Pitts-burgh in November 2009. Two summits will be held in 2010—in Toronto in June and in Seoul in November—as leaders continue to grapple with the global economic crisis. As the host of the first G20 Summit in Asia, Korea understands that the results of 2010 will be central to establishing the credibility and effectiveness of the G20 process. The summits need to ensure that agreements made at previous meetings are followed through and that clear policy directions are set for strong, sustainable, and balanced global growth after the crisis.
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

57. Confronting Environmental Treaty Implementation Challenges in the Pacific Islands

Author:
Pamela S. Chasek
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Pacific is at the crossroads of all environmental and sustainable development issues. It is one of the richest areas of the world in terms of biodiversity, yet it is also one of the most fragile and vulnerable regions. Problems are so large that none of the Pacific Island states or territories can respond to them alone. As a result, regional cooperation, mutual aid between states, and the pooling of energies and ideas are necessary.
Topic:
Environment and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Island

58. A Research Strategy for the Pacific Climate Information System

Author:
Melissa L. Finucane, John Marra, and James C. Weyman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Based on a selective review of the outcomes of previous meetings, conferences, workshops, and papers highlighting climate variability and change research needs in the Pacific region, this paper presents a research strategy for increasing understanding of climate-society linkages in Pacific Island settings. The strategy provides a synopsis of emerging research goals and illustrative activities that users can rank according to their priorities. Grounded in the framework of the Pacific Climate Information System, the strategy is comprised of three key research elements: (1) research to enhance understanding of regional climate risks and consequences; (2) research to improve decision support and risk communication; and (3) research to improve climate adaptation capacity. We envision the strategy will contribute to enhanced understanding of scientific and societal knowledge of climate processes and their impacts and stakeholder capacity for building sustainable island communities for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

59. Climate Commitments to 2050: A Roadmap for China

Author:
ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Representatives of countries around the world are scheduled to meet in Copenhagen in December 2009, to try to hammer out a new regime for attacking climate change problems. No one would deny that the United States is committed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions—an essential part of a global pact—or that President Obama wants to demonstrate U.S. leadership in the debate.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

60. How the Asia Pacific Can Drive the Global Recovery

Author:
Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The transition to a new, sustained global growth path is still precarious and will require concerted policy actions by many countries. Leadership by the G-20 will be essential for coordinating the global effort. But due to the central importance of the Asia Pacific in the world economy, regional institutions such as ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, and APEC could also play large roles in the next phase of the recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia