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1. Its own worst enemy? The Ugandan government is taking desperate measures to control rising dissent

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda has the world’s second youngest population. The Museveni regime is increasingly struggling to build legitimacy among this group, which wants public services and employment rather than distant stories about how the regime brought an end to war when it came to power in 1986. This brief aims to explain the ways in which the Museveni regime has dealt with these changing circumstances. Concretely, it argues that the regime’s attempts to improve public services largely fail because of existing patronage dynamics. This has made the regime even more dependent on the use of patronage and violence.
Topic:
Public Opinion, State Violence, Legitimacy, Dissent, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

2. Untangling Justice, Peace and Amnesties in the Central African Republic

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The question of amnesties has come to the forefront once again as the Central African Republic (CAR) started a new round of African Union-mediated peace negotiations on 24 January 2019. While rebel groups demanded a general amnesty as a non-negotiable condition, the government maintained strong opposition to any new amnesty. The Khartoum peace agreement signed on 6 February 2019 did not uphold rebel groups’ demand for a general amnesty, but it leaves many grey areas concerning the question of amnesty and justice. Consequently, it is likely that the question of amnesties or pardons will resurface in the course of the agreement’s implementation. Drawing on broader discussions about the amnesty dilemma and examining the provisions of the 2019 Khartoum peace agreement, this policy brief sets out the key parameters which frame the amnesty question in the CAR.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

3. he Democratic Republic of Congo: The Great Electoral Robbery (and how and why Kabila got away with it)

Author:
Kris Berwouts and Filip Reyntjens
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Although the election of Félix Tshisekedi as president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was hailed as ‘the first peaceful transition since independence’, the election was anything but a democratic exercise. Indeed, Martin Fayulu was the real winner, not Tshisekedi. Suspected electoral fraud at the legislative elections has returned a parliament in which Kabila’s Common Front for Congo coalition (Front commun pour le Congo – FCC) holds a large majority. This will allow Kabila to keep real power in most domains of government. By endorsing this outcome in the knowledge that it was fraudulently obtained, the West and Africa have robbed the Congolese people of their choice.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Rigged Elections, and State Abuse
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

4. Returnees in the Maghreb: Comparing Policies on Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia

Author:
Thomas Renard
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The conflict in Syria and Iraq has mobilised an unprecedented number of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). More than 50,000 individuals travelled to the Levant to join jihadi groups. While fighters have flocked from virtually every corner of the world, a significant contingent came from North Africa. This has created an unprecedented challenge for individual countries, as well as for the broader Maghreb and Mediter- ranean regions. The ‘Caliphate’ has now been defeated with the loss of its remaining territories. While many people were killed, thousands of fighters and family members are either in detention in Syria or in Iraq – or still on the run. Authorities worldwide are contem- plating – or should be contemplating – the possible return of these fighters in the short to medium term and how to deal with them. In fact, more than a thousand North African fighters have already returned home since 2012. Following this unprecedented number of jihadi volunteers, countries must now handle an unprecedented number of jihadi veterans who present a multi-faceted security and societal challenge from prosecution to detention and rehabilitation. Arguably, whether they return or not, some of these fighters are likely to have a lasting effect on the global jihadi movement and on local dynamics in their country of origin. As highlighted in this report, history is a reminder that even small numbers of veteran fighters can have a significant impact on local, regional and global security. There has been a growing amount of research into (returning) foreign fighters recently.1 This research was needed to better understand the phenomenon, either in general terms or at a country-specific level. Most of this research focused on departures rather than returns, and it focused often more on the individual dynamics and motivations rather than on governments’ debates and responses. Yet, as most governments still grapple with returnees, it is important to look into governments’ responses, with a view to opening a discussion and possibly making some recom- mendations. In this report, we have therefore decided to focus on governments’ responses to the issue of returning foreign fighters in North Africa, in light of the unprecedented regional mobilisation. Tunisia, notably, has often been described as the largest provider of foreign fighters to the Levant, or certainly one of its top purveyors. Egypt and Morocco have also seen a significant mobilisation for jihad, justifying their inclu- sion in our study. We offer a comparative analysis of the situation in these three North African countries: Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Such an approach, using similar guidelines for all contributing authors, allows for interesting comparisons between the circum- stances that led to the departure of fighters and the responses to dealing with their return. Contributors were asked to look into domestic perceptions and debates related to the threat from returnees, and the specific policies developed to handle them. They were also asked to compare current perceptions and responses with previous jihadi mobilisations.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

5. Belgian Special Forces in the Sahel: A Minimal Footprint with Maximal Output?

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In a shifting geopolitical context, the Belgian Defence has intensified its presence in the Sahel region and developed a new strategic military collaboration with Niger through Operation New Nero. This policy brief critically examines the strategy and identifies three challenges for the future of the operation: Niger’s democratic development, the asymmetry between the Western Partner Nation’s capabilities, and diverging agendas within the Belgian Defence. To counter these challenges, it is suggested that the minimalist approach and the social networks which enable horizontal collaboration among partners are maintained, while new civil-military opportunities are explored. On a broader level, it is recommended that Belgium aligns its political and military agendas to achieve long- term strategies geopolitical regions of importance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Belgium, Sahel, and Niger

6. Security Forces’ Strategies of Resistance to Transitional Justice

Author:
Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Security forces are key actors in transitional justice, with the ability to hamper or upend the process. While concerns have often centred on their possible violent responses to transitional justice, security forces are generally more likely to mobilise more discrete forms of resistance. Drawing on transitional justice experiences in Brazil, Chile, Sierra Leone and Uganda this policy brief identifies six types of resistance strategies used by security forces: threatening violence, obstructionism, de-legitimation, strategic cooperation, disengagement and appropriation. It also examines which contextual factors may influence which strategies the security forces are more likely to pursue.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Brazil, South America, Sierra Leone, and Chile

7. Burundi on the Brink Again? Identifying Risks Before the 2020 elections

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In less than a year Burundi will hold its first elections since the 2015 political crisis was triggered by the president’s bid for a third term. Almost five years after the start of the crisis, Burundi is still stuck in a political impasse with strong authoritarian undertones and with little hope of conducting free and fair elections. This policy brief identifies four developments which could turn the current situation into a high- intensity violent crisis: forced refugee return; repression of the opposition; implosion of the ruling party CNDD-FDD and the threat of an Ebola outbreak. Given the tense climate and the limited space available to foreign actors, it is suggested that external actors scale down expectations for democratic elections. Instead, focus should be on keeping options open to provide humanitarian assistance in the event of a large-scale outbreak of violence or Ebola, while maintaining political pressure for democratic space.
Topic:
Elections, Ebola, Refugees, Election watch, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

8. Improving Peacekeeping Performance – Dilemmas and Goals

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The recent adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2436 on UN peacekeeping is the latest development in an ongoing debate on how to improve peacekeeping performance. Africa’s status as both the largest provider of troops and the continent hosting most current peace operations, positions it at the heart of this discussion. This policy brief critically examines two of the options identified to improve peacekeeping: more troop contributions from states with advanced military capability and better training for peacekeepers. Specifically, it highlights challenges with training troops from (semi-)authoritarian and post-conflict states and points to the importance of improving civil-military relations in order to enhance peacekeeping performance.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa

9. Game of zones. The quest for influence in Europe's neighbourhood

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Russia's annexation of the Crimea and subsequent meddling in Ukraine does not constitute a game-changer. It is just a reminder that at least since the war with Georgia in 2008 Russia has been and still is playing the same game: a "game of zones",aimed at (re)establishing an exclusive sphere of influence. Many of us Europeans had forgotten that, or had pushed it to the back of our minds, preferring to believe that we were not engaged in a zero-sum game in our eastern neighbourhood.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

10. Tackling terror in Africa: what local roles for insurgency groups?

Author:
Jean-Christophe Hoste
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This Africa Policy Brief is based on the recently published book Time for a new approach on terror in Africa? In line with the conclusions of the book, this policy brief wants to tackle dominant perspectives on insurgency groups in Africa. It argues for a more nuanced understanding of these groups, which also looks into their roles in local societies.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa