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22. The Default Power
- Author:
- Josef Joffe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Every ten years, it is decline time in the United States. In the late 1950s, it was the Sputnik shock, followed by the "missile gap" trumpeted by John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential campaign. A decade later, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger sounded the dirge over bipolarity, predicting a world of five, rather than two, global powers. At the end of the 1970s, Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech invoked "a crisis of confidence" that struck "at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will." A decade later, academics such as the Yale historian Paul Kennedy predicted the ruin of the United States, driven by overextension abroad and profligacy at home. The United States was at risk of "imperial overstretch," Kennedy wrote in 1987, arguing that "the sum total of the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country's power to defend them all simultaneously." But three years later, Washington dispatched 600,000 soldiers to fight the first Iraq war -- without reinstating the draft or raising taxes. The only price of "overstretch" turned out to be the mild recession of 1991. Declinism took a break in the 1990s. The United States was enjoying a nice run after the suicide of the Soviet Union, and Japan, the economic powerhouse of the 1980s, was stuck in its "lost decade" of stagnation and so no longer stirred U.S. paranoia with its takeover of national treasures such as Pebble Beach and Rockefeller Center. The United States had moved into the longest economic expansion in history, which, apart from eight down months in 2001, continued until 2008. "Gloom is the dominant mood in Japan these days," one Asian commentator reported in 1997, whereas "American capitalism is resurgent, confident and brash." That year, the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that "the defining feature of world affairs" was "globalization" and that if "you had to design a country best suited to compete in such a world, [it would be] today's America." He concluded on a triumphant note: "Globalization is us."
- Topic:
- Globalization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Washington
23. Tokyo's Trials
- Author:
- Yoichi Funabashi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The rise to power of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) after half a century of almost uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could bring profound changes to Japan. One change will surely be generational: the new leaders, including Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, will be the first with little memory of World War II. Another could be substantive: the DPJ's stated objectives suggest significant shifts in both Japan's domestic policies and its external relations, especially with the United States and the rest of Asia. Since 2007, the DPJ had already been maintaining a majority coalition in the Diet's upper house, the House of Councilors, alongside the People's New Party and the Social Democratic Party; its August victory in the lower house, the House of Representatives, gave it full control over the government. Another win in the next House of Councilors election, which is scheduled for 2010, would further consolidate its power. Japan now stands a better chance of becoming a two-party system, with real political competition, than at any time since 1890, when it held its first election -- the first free contest anywhere in Asia. The economic crisis that has plagued Japan for two decades has allowed the DPJ to grow into a viable alternative to LDP rule; Barack Obama's campaign mantra "Yes, we can!" echoed across the Pacific. The DPJ has real potential to be different. And with its landslide victory, it enjoys the backing of a vast range of constituencies, including traditional supporters of the LDP.
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Tokyo
24. Keeping Up With Asia
- Author:
- Yoichi Funabashi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Bush legacy in Asia is positive and the next admistration can continue this trend by continuing multilateral engagement with Japan and China.
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
25. The Current State of the Japanese Economy
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and East Asia
26. Creating a North American Community - Chairmen's Statement
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- When the leaders of Canada, Mexico, and the United States meet in Texas on March 23, they will be representing countries whose futures are shared as never before.U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada accounts for almost one-third of total U.S. trade. U.S. trade with its North American neighbors substantially exceeds its trade with the European Union, and with Japan and China combined. In the energy sector, Canada and Mexico are now the two largest exporters of oil to the United States. Canada alone supplies the United States with over 95 percent of its imported natural gas and 100 percent of its imported electricity. In 2005, the borders between Canada, Mexico, and the United States will be crossed almost 400 million times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Canada, North America, and Mexico
27. A New Beginning: Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship
- Author:
- Bruce Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The time is ripe for a bold new initiative to recast the U.S.-Japan economic partnership for the 21st century. A new Japan is emerging. Foreign investment is on the rise. Tokyo is deregulating and restructuring its economy. A new generation of Japanese entrepreneurs and venture capitalists has arrived on the stage.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and North Africa
28. Economic Crisis and Corporate Reform in East Asia
- Author:
- Meredith Woo-Cumings
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 involved, among other things, a failure of regulation. Some believe this failure is endemic to global capitalism, and others believe it was profoundly local and idiosyncratic, emanating from regulatory flaws in the affected countries, stretching an arc from Thailand and Indonesia to Korea and Japan. There is also a debate about the nature of the regulation that failed. Some argue that the crisis emanated from a surfeit of nettlesome regulations and endemic industrial policy; others claim it happened for want of effective regulations and (even) industrial policy. Across the hypotenuse of these disagreements, however, stretches a universal recognition that regulatory infrastructure and institutions do matter and that they must play a major role in the way we think about economic development. After the miracle years in East Asia, “good governance” has become the Spirit of the Age.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Indonesia, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea, and Thailand
29. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course
- Author:
- Neil E. Silver
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
30. U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: A Second Look
- Author:
- Michael J. Green, James T. Laney, and Morton I. Abramowitz
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In May, former Secretary of Defense William Perry traveled to North Korea with a comprehensive proposal to increase outside assistance for its isolated and declining Stalinist regime in exchange for steps by the North to reduce its threatening military posture. The Perry proposal was designed to test North Korea's intentions not only to abide by the 1994 Agreed Framework, which aimed to cap Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, but also to stop further missile tests and military provocations. It is unlikely that North Korea will respond positively. The regime has survived for five decades only by maintaining a belligerent stance. Pyongyang has rebuffed South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's unprecedented efforts to improve North-South relations and has continued to produce military tensions, even in the wake of the Perry visit. But it is too soon to give up on a comprehensive package to reduce tensions with North Korea. Despite the illusion of self-sufficiency, or juche, the North is increasingly dependent on outside help to sustain itself. It is possible that over time Pyongyang will find no alternative to greater interaction with the outside world. Barring an increase in threatening North Korean actions, the United States should keep the Perry proposal on the table and continue to support Kim Dae Jung's policy of engagement. A second Taepodong missile test by North Korea would not violate any existing North Korean commitments, but it would significantly change the situation in Northeast Asia. We should make every effort to deter a launch, but if one takes place, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will have to examine ways to enhance defense against a different North Korean threat. South Korea should suspend new investment in North Korea and Japan should impose new sanctions and consider restrictions on financial transfers to the North. The United States should lower its diplomatic activity toward Pyongyang, keeping channels open, but forcing North Korea to provide incentives for greater dialogue. A missile launch should not end our attempts at diplomacy or cause us to forget that North Korea's relative military capabilities are in decline, but if a test is conducted business cannot continue as usual. Although a North Korean missile launch would do great damage to political support for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, it should not be a reason for us to abandon our commitments under the Agreed Framework. The Agreed Framework stands as the major bulwark against a return to the kind of calamitous military steps the United States was forced to consider in 1994 to stop North Korea's nuclear program. Inspections of suspicious underground facilities at Kumchangri in May revealed no North Korean violation of the Agreed Framework. Although we cannot assume from this that Pyongyang has forsaken its nuclear ambitions, we do know that implementation of the Agreed Framework remains the best approach to preventing nuclear weapons development in the North. In the end, there is no easy solution to the intractable North Korean problem. Efforts to reduce tensions and build North-South reconciliation have yielded little. We are strong enough to test inducements for change in the North, but our policy must be based on robust deterrence and close defense cooperation with our allies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula
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