Search

Begin New Search Topic Security Publishing Institution Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations

1. Pandora’s Box in Syria: Anticipating negative externalities of a re-entrenching regime

Author:
Samar Batrawi
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
During 2019, the original Syrian conflict entered its closing phases, except for the battlefields of Idlib and in the north east. As a result, conflict dynamics have become somewhat easier to read, as the regime and its key allies have shifted towards a triumphalist ‘post-war’ narrative and corresponding governance styles, deal-making and decision-making. These developments can be witnessed in three interlinked spheres: security, civil, and political economic practices. Together, they largely form the Assad regime’s political economy, which – although poorly understood due to limited access – is crucial to understand to assess the negative externalities likely to result from its wartime survival and re-entrenchment. The paper analyses six such externalities: 1. risk of conflict relapse due to economic pressures 2. the politics of refugees 3. risks and instrumentalisation of terrorism 4. regional instability 5. humanitarian culpability 6. deterioration of the international legal order. These externalities are interconnected and emerge from the political economy of the regime – the accumulation of its security, civil and political economic practices. Their nature and volume suggest that the Syrian civil war will plague its neighbors, as well as Europe, for a long time to come. These externalities also focus our attention on the fact that adequate containment strategies should be designed as a matter of urgency, to limit their negative impact.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Political Economy, Terrorism, Refugees, Conflict, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

2. Together or Alone? Policy Brief The need for increased Albanian-Dutch cooperation to fight transnational organised crime

Author:
Alban Dafa and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In recent years the Netherlands has voiced security-related concerns about the involvement of Albanians nationals in organised crime in the Netherlands. These concerns culminated in a request to the European Commission to suspend visa-free travel for Albanians to the EU. This policy brief argues that the current Dutch approach does not provide the best means to address issues of organised crime, such as drug trafficking, related to Albanian nationals. It identifies several inadequacies in the crime data used to substantiate the Dutch position and the way Dutch authorities publicly communicate them. It posits that greater bilateral cooperation beyond the EU accession framework could improve efforts to fight transnational organised crime effectively. The opening of EU accession negotiations with Albania may offer a window of opportunity to formulate a constructive agenda of cooperation beyond the formal EU enlargement framework. This policy brief was written by Alban Dafa from the Institute for Democracy and Mediation and Wouter Zweers (the Clingendael Institute).
Topic:
Security, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Europe, Albania, and Netherlands

3. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Author:
Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

4. Progress on implementing the Briefing note Hague Declaration on Climate and Security

Author:
Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Hague Declaration is a six-point plan covering a call for an institutional mechanism on climate and security within the UN system, for a process to develop a climate security risk assessment in Lake Chad, and for concrete action in two of the most vulnerable post-conflict countries: Mali and Iraq. It is also a commitment by a growing community of practice to systematically address security risks related to climate change - from analysis to action, built on the conviction that everyone must work together to address and manage risks and threats before they arise. This briefing note by Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda presents the outcome of a survey by the Planetary Security Initiative on the objectives with the Hague Declaration, its achievements so far, and the gaps in and challenges to progress that still need to be overcome.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Mali, Global Focus, and The Hague

5. Stormclouds and Solutions: Anticipating and Preparing for Climate Change and Security Risks in the Caribbean

Author:
Shiloh Fetzek and Oliver Leighton-Barrett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
A region long-tested by both extreme weather events and illicit economic activity, the Caribbean has developed abundant expertise in climate science and disaster resilience. It also has many underlying governance and security challenges which may amplify each other as climate impacts intensify. In this policy brief authors Shiloh Fetzek and Lt. Commander US Navy (ret.) Oliver Leighton-Barrett identify the key regional security risks exacerbated by climate change, which include: 1. economic contraction, violence and criminal activity; 2. disaster impacts and political repercussions; 3. food and water insecurity, damage to livelihoods and social unrest; and 4. Central and South American security deterioration impacting on the Caribbean. Anticipating and addressing these challenges by integrating security cooperation and climate resilience initiatives could support existing risk management structures and advance long-term economic and socio-political stability in the Caribbean.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Caribbean

6. The Warning Signs are Flashing Red: The interplay between climate change and violent extremism in the Western Sahel

Author:
Tom Middendorp and Reinier Bergema
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Development and security cannot do without the other. It is not enough to counter violent extremism by addressing the symptoms; understanding and focusing on root causes, in regions such as the Western Sahel, is essential to countering violent extremism. Countries in the Western Sahel suffer from the consequences of climate change: increasing droughts and water shortages make it harder for 50 million people – who depend on agriculture and livestock for their survival – to support their families. Joining a non-state armed group, for income and food, becomes ‘a tempting, or sometimes even the only, alternative.’ To address these challenges, the authors propose five recommendations: 1. Routinise and institutionalise attention to climate change in security institutions 2. Factor in (counter)violent extremism and counterterrorism into climate change efforts 3. Create a comprehensive early warning mechanism 4. Ensure comprehensive engagements: terrorist threats are not only a military issue, addressing economic and financial sources, online recruitment, supply chains, and climate change is essential for strong stabilisation efforts 5. Improve regional cooperation
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

7. Climate Security: Making it #Doable

Author:
Dan Smith, Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe, and Karolina Eklöw
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19-20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security. Assisted by Rickard Söder and Mikaela Wang, authors Dan Smith, Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe and Karolina Eklöw review the progress made in global and regional organisations on addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks despite the turmoil in global politics at large. It builds on the two previous progress reports for the Planetary Security Initiative (PSI). The report focuses on progress in the UN and in regional intergovernmental organisations, both showcasing achievements and highlighting new challenges.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, Sustainability, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. The Status Quo Defied: The legitimacy of traditional authorities in areas of limited statehood in Mali, Niger and Libya

Author:
Fransje Molenaar, Jonathan Tossell, Anna Schmauder, and Rida Lyammouri
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The legitimacy of traditional authorities in areas of limited statehood in Mali, Niger and Libya In many countries in the Sahel and northern Africa, the state lacks an effective presence in border regions. This has dire consequences for communities that reside there, as the state is generally unable or unwilling to provide them with basic security and services. State absence has become a particularly pressing concern since the 2011 fall of Gaddafi in Libya, which set in motion a chain reaction of armed group formation and the spread of violent extremist organisations that now threaten the stability of the region. By capitalising on both the absence of state security and local populations’ grievances about central state neglect, these groups have been able to cement their presence throughout the Sahel, in Mali and Niger for example. This report explores whether traditional authorities in Mali, Niger and Libya could play a role in addressing these dynamics. Since pre-colonial times, traditional authorities such as tribal chiefs and religious leaders have performed governance tasks, such as the administration of justice and conflict mediation. They also play ‘an important symbolic role as representatives of community identity, unity, continuity, and stability. This has earned them a high degree of legitimacy among the public. In areas of state absence, traditional authorities could therefore provide pivotal entry points for local dispute resolution and mediation initiatives. Yet, as this report shows, traditional authorities have always been part of the political context, and are thus liable to be drawn into political – and sometimes violent – conflict. To assess whether traditional authorities can contribute to governance and stability, this report aims to provide a better understanding of how traditional authorities come to power, the extent to which their communities regard them as legitimate authorities, and the extent to which communities feel that traditional leaders are best-placed to address their concerns. The application of this multidimensional perspective to legitimacy, as advanced by Beetham (2013), leads to the following central research questions: How do the traditional authorities engaged in local governance in fragile settings, such as areas of limited statehood, build and maintain legitimacy? And what consequences does this have for (inter)national interventions that aim to foster (formal) local government and stability?
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Borders, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Mali, Sahel, and Niger

9. Making cities in conflict areas more resilient

Author:
Stephan Slingerland, Michel Rademaker, Karlijn Jans, Paul Verhagen, Aster Boeschoten, and Hannes Rõõs
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
By 2050, the UN estimates that 70 percent of the global population will be living in urban areas. Therefore, understanding and anticipating the ability of cities to manage and avoid the negative effects of climate-related changes and events – for example, hurricanes, overpopulation or supply chain disruption – is of utmost importance. This paper presents a conceptual framework to empirically quantify the climate resilience of cities to guide policymakers and community leaders in identifying challenges and opportunities. This paper tests the framework for data analysis in three cities in conflict-prone territories: Bamako (Mali), Maiduguri (Nigeria, Lake Chad Region) and Baghdad (Iraq). The analysis of the three cases suggested that city resilience in those areas cannot be developed without addressing the root causes of conflict in the entire area, as city-level resilience in conflict areas is closely related to the national level. On the basis of the research, some important observations and recommendations are made. When tested, the analysis revealed that the level of resilience did not necessarily correspond to economic development; it also found that conflict significantly lowered overall urban resilience to climate-related impacts. Large sprawling cities typically score poorly on maintaining resilience. While recovery and learning capacities are usually present in urban areas, very dense urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate disasters. Cities in the global north have built learning capacity; they have made efforts to share best practices (e.g., the Rockefeller Foundation’s Resilience initiative, efforts by UN CPI and CRI, etc); and they have considered the lessons learned and implemented guidance. Data analysis can help to bolster the learning capacity of cities to cope with climate impacts that could increase tensions in large urban areas. However, there is a significant difference in the availability of data between the developed and the developing world. Data collection in developing countries (and cities) should be strengthened to better estimate climate-related security risks in urban areas and bolster their capacity to maintain key functions and recover and learn from climate events in their own and comparable cities.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, Conflict, Cities, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus