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1. US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers

Author:
Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers OCTOBER 6, 2020 By: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University; Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Brendan Helm, Research Assistant Although President Trump initially hoped for improved relations between the United States and Russia, during his tenure the US government has overtly declared Russia a top threat to US national security. Congress and the administration widened Obama-era sanctions against Russia after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Data from a recent survey of American experts on Russia, conducted by The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints Russia as a declining power. The results show that while experts anticipate changes in the global balance of power in the next 20 years, with China overtaking the United States, they do not expect Russia to come out stronger over that time frame. Experts draw attention to Russia’s cracked economic and political foundation in the present and its likely decline over the next two decades due to economic mismanagement and faltering soft power. Now there are the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to add to this list.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2. Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects?

Author:
Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Green COVID-19 Recovery and Transatlantic Leadership: What Are the Prospects? OCTOBER 20, 2020 By: Paul Hofhuis, Senior Research Associate, Clingendael Institute As the US presidential election rapidly approaches, an important question is the prospects for (renewed) transatlantic cooperation, especially in the areas of green recovery to the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, tackling climate change, and addressing these issues through multilateral approaches. In analyzing ambitions and initiatives on both sides of the Atlantic in three connected policy arenas, this brief argues that while a Democratic victory provides greater opportunity for collaboration, underlying structures for cooperation among societal stakeholders in the United States need to be reinvigorated to diminish polarization in society, which could continue to block the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, Economy, Green Technology, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

3. Record Number of Americans Say International Trade Is Good for the US Economy

Author:
Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
President Donald Trump has embarked on an ambitious and disruptive trade agenda, driven by his belief that the United States has lost “many billions of dollars” to trading partners and that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.”[1] During his term, the president has escalated trade tensions with China; has renegotiated trade agreements with countries such as Mexico, Canada, and South Korea; and has withdrawn US involvement in trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 2019 Chicago Council Survey finds that though Republicans and Democrats differ on whether President Trump’s strategy is an effective approach to trade policy, the American public is more likely than ever to say that international trade benefits the United States.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economy, and WTO
Political Geography:
Canada, South Korea, North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

4. Girls Leading: From Rural Economies to Global Solutions

Author:
Catherine Bertini
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
An estimated 3 billion of the world’s 6.9 billion people live in rural areas of the developing world. More than 60 percent of them live in poverty. Poverty affects women and girls disproportionately; rural girls face the triple challenges to their empowerment and well-being by virtue of their youth, gender, and location. Investing in rural girls’ health and safety, as well as their personal and professional development, has the potential to transform rural economies. Girls Leading: From Rural Economies to Global Solutions—available as both a fully online digital experience and as a PDF—is a collection of diverse perspectives from 20 authors around the world. The authors share their research and stories of personal struggle and triumph to highlight the needs of rural girls and solutions to the challenges they face. The report also includes recommendations, arranged by age group, for critical moments in a girl’s life where both small and large actions can make a huge difference. Many of the most pressing global issues—climate change, economic development, health, and education—demand that we consider rural girls. The world changes as their lives change. Join the conversation at #GirlsLeading.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Education, Gender Issues, Health, Poverty, Children, Women, Economy, Youth, and Rural
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The Looming Global Obesity Threat

Author:
Roger Thurow
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
This paper seeks to raise awareness of the growing global obesity epidemic and the need to address the economic, security, and humanitarian threats it poses for the United States and the world. While the development community—including global agriculture, health, and security practitioners—has been focused on combatting undernutrition, the number of people who are obese or overweight has been on the rise and is now on par with the 2 billion who are food insecure. In western countries where the epidemic started, obesity is not just an enormous health and economic burden, but a national security threat. Seventy percent of 17-to 24-year-olds in America are reported to be unfit to serve in the military, with being overweight and obese as the leading disqualifier. An increasingly sedentary lifestyle and growing reliance on unhealthy processed food has spread to low and middle-income countries around the world. Many of these countries are experiencing a “double burden” of malnutrition, in which people who are overweight or have obesity coexist with those experiencing undernutrition, threatening the growth and vitality of their societies. So far, policy responses from national governments have been slow and inadequate. The costs of the epidemic have not yet been viewed as urgent enough to generate the public demand or political will to act. The view of obesity as a global “syndemic,” along with undernutrition and climate change, has the potential to help rally attention to the challenge. The paper calls for local, national, and global efforts to recognize obesity as the economic, moral, and security crisis that it is and to summon the political will to end the epidemic.
Topic:
Security, Health, Economy, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy

Author:
Phil Levy
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

7. Inclusive Urban Economic Development: A Framework For Action

Author:
Alaina Harkness
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Cities are the world economy’s innovation hubs; with their dense concentrations of people, firms, talent, and other resources, they are the engines of economic growth and prosperity. Unfortunately, cities are also the home to severe economic inequality. As cities get larger, they tend to become more unequal; in all countries except for Canada, all metros with more than 500,000 people had levels of inequality well above the national average. Left unchecked, these growth patterns will deepen the global economic divide and could threaten the stability and vitality of both cities and nations. Can cities resolve these apparent (and seemingly fundamental) tensions between growth and inclusion?
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Economy, Economic growth, Urban, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus