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141. The Blind Men and the Elephant: Making Sense of China's One Belt One Road Initiative

Author:
Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
China’s One Belt One Road Initiative has virtually been a lightning rod for divisive debate and a polarised narrative since it was announced in 2013. For India, it has been the proverbial elephant in the room, as it awkwardly swings between willful pretence and wishful erasure. The policy brief looks at the clues this initiative could offer on the likely drivers of China’s economic diplomacy in the region. There could be three signals for India to watch out for. A clear pointer is the growing role of domestic determinants in setting the direction and pace of China’s regional economic engagement. Another pointer could be China’s role in shaping and defining Asia’s new institutional financial architecture. Lastly, the initiative could be a signal of how China is likely to engage with the larger questions of benefit sharing, trade-offs and the allocation of risks and burdens in subregional Asia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economic growth, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

142. India-Japan Brief

Author:
Rani Mullen and Kashyap Arora
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Japan and India constitute two of the oldest democracies in Asia and also stand among Asia’s three biggest economies. It was in the year 1952 that India and Japan signed their first treaty and six years later in 1958, India received its first official development assistance from Japan. However, a major breakthrough in the bilateral ties took place only in the year 2000 when Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiko Mori visited India. The visit witnessed establishment of ‘Global Partnership between India and Japan’. This relationship was elevated to ‘Global and Strategic Partnership’ in 2006 which was later followed by up gradation of the bilateral partnership to the status of ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ in 2014. In December 2015, both Indian and Japanese leaders also laid out the future roadmap of India-Japan ties in a joint statement referred to as ‘Japan and India Vision 2025: Special Strategic and Global Partnership Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region and the World’. Both the economies also find themselves in a mutually beneficial situation with Japanese economy finding it difficult to sustain economic growth due to its ageing and shrinking population size, whereas India suffers from infrastructural bottlenecks. More importantly, stronger India-Japan alliance also provides impetus to balance and counter the growing Chinese influence and ensure freedom of navigation and multilateralism in the Indo-Pacific. Both the countries also constitute a strong source of mutual support at multilateral level on global issues including each other’s candidature as a permanent member of an expanded United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as well as India’s membership in the four international nuclear export control regimes among many others.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, United Nations, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economies, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Japan, South Asia, India, and East Asia

143. How Effective are Environmental Regulations to Address Impacts of Industrial and Infrastructure Projects in India

Author:
Krithika A. Dinesh, Meenakshi Kapoor, Kanchi Kohli, Manju Menon, and Preeti Venkatram
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
People around the world live in areas that have been altered for industrial, infrastructure or mining projects. Their lives and occupations are being negatively impacted by problems of access, encroachment or pollution. Though governments in many countries have regulatory procedures for implementing environmental and social safeguards that are applicable to such projects so that problems can be minimised or mitigated, the qualitative difference of such regulatory systems depends on the efficacy of their compliance safeguards. Typically, in countries where compliance is low, projects meant for development have also resulted in substantial environmental and social costs. Governments and investors fear the implementation of environmental policies and claim that these are bottlenecks or speed breakers to growth. Several new studies show that stringent compliance of environmental policies will neither affect competitiveness nor slow down GDP growth. On the contrary, it may result in bottom line benefits at the level of projects as well as sustain economic growth by enhancing efficiency and innovation. India promulgated a series of environmental legislations between 1980 and 2005 to ensure that environmental and social impacts of land use change, infrastructure development and industrialisation are kept in check and timely mitigation is undertaken. The laws establish detailed procedures for assessing the environmental impacts of the proposed projects that are likely to cause land use change. The laws also involve the laying of conditions that are attached to the approvals granted to these projects. These conditions are meant to mitigate or prevent damage or impacts to the extent ascertained by the project proponents and the government or regulator. Since the time these laws were first designed, there have been numerous amendments to them to change the scope of applicability of these laws, the time taken by regulators for decision-making and the sharing of responsibility between state and central governments in implementing these laws. However, one aspect of these laws that has seen minimal change is in their monitoring and compliance regimes. What happens to the projects once they are granted approvals? Do they comply with all the conditions imposed on them for mitigating or minimising environmental and social impacts? Who oversees these processes and what is the extent to which compliance is achieved? This report is the outcome of a research project undertaken to understand the efficacy of conditional compliance, institutional monitoring and enforcement of environmental regulations to address the impacts faced by communities living around industrial and infrastructure projects. The project identified the institutions responsible for monitoring and compliance under various environmental laws, their procedures and practices by which these roles are realised. While it has been known that government agencies and regulatory bodies hold the formal duties of monitoring, the project also focused on how affected communities engage these institutions for greater compliance and remedies in case of environmental and social impacts of various kinds, such as encroachment or damage to common or private property, loss of livelihoods and loss of access to public spaces. By analysing the efforts made by affected parties to engage with environmental institutions to craft remedies for existing environmental impacts, this research aims to highlight regulatory ingredients that are necessary for sound environment regulation and better outcomes through compliance. If translated into concrete policy on environmental monitoring and compliance, these lessons could address the chasm between enforcement of environmental regulations and the ever-growing difficulties of meeting environmental challenges.
Topic:
Environment, Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Legislation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

144. Schizophrenic Subregionalism? Method and Madness in India’s Border Fencing Project

Author:
Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
A problematic set of binaries stands at the heart of India’s narrative on borders, one that has rendered its political signaling contradictory as well as virtually unintelligible. India’s border fencing project is a stark metaphor of this conflicted discourse, perching uneasily as it were between the feel-good narrative of rethinking borders as bridges on the one hand and an almost pathological fear of open borders on the other. This binary is what characterises India’s schizophrenic subregionalism, a discourse virtually in morbid fear of itself. The paper argues that this twisted logic runs the risk of turning against itself to subvert India’s subregional project itself. Its political fate is also critically linked to the larger question of how India perceives its role in the region and the extent to which it prioritises subregional integration as a regional public good.
Topic:
International Relations, Border Control, Regional Integration, and Borders
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

145. Urban Sanitation in India – Why Brazil Matters

Author:
Anjali Chikersal and Aditya Bhol
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Since the launch of the Swachh Bharat Mission in October 2014, sanitation issues in India are receiving immense attention from policymakers, media and civil society alike. The sector however received enormous funds even before this scheme with little positive results. This paper argues that the translation of the current hype into the right policies and practical schemes for amelioration of the poor conditions depends upon a complete rethinking of the entire approach to the issue. Brazil has gone through a series of transformations in the sector that provide a useful lens to India to examine the issue with. It will need similar radical changes, starting from recognition of sanitation as a basic human right to effective regulation, for India to begin to address this massive challenge.
Topic:
Human Rights, Infrastructure, Regulation, Social Policy, Urban, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Brazil, and South America

146. Flows and Flaws: Diverting the Debate on Water with China

Author:
Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
China’s growing water thirst lends an urgency to understand China’s resource choices, the possible conditions under which it is likely to exercise these choices and the ripple effects these are likely to have across the borders. While overinterpretation and hysteria has tended to take the place of informed scholarship and media, India’s official narrative has largely tended to downplay many of these concerns. The paper argues that the debate has also unwittingly ended up being a single-issue debate fixated on water diversion, in the process inadvertently diverting attention away from other equally important issues. Can we frame the water debate with China in ways that can create institutional entry points for a whole set of missing issues that are currently invisible to the mainstream policy and research gaze? India and China’s willingness to begin a subregional conversation on regional public goods could pave the way to designing norms of benefit sharing, negotiating trade-offs, and allocating risks and burdens on collective goods and bads in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Water, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

147. NON-TARIFF MEASURES TO FOOD TRADE IN INDIA: A CASE STUDY OF SELECTED PORTS

Author:
Aparna Sharma
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Speaking at a recent summit, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to India as a bright spot in the global economy. India’s rapid domestic growth and growing integration with global trade, technology and financial flows support his assertion; yet, all this is not translating into peak progress in South Asia, to which New Delhi avowedly assigns high priority. Despite India climbing nine positions in the Ease of Doing Business index (164 to 155 - out of 180 countries), its ranking vis-a-vis facilitating border trade (133) remains unchanged since the last five years. In the absence of timely reforms to bolster food security in South Asia, Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) measures, Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and administrative measures for trade facilitation have emerged as the biggest concern to South Asia’s food trade. 86 percent of South Asia’s food trade remains crippled with non-standard implementation of SPS and TBT measures.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

148. Reforming the Liability Regime for Air Pollution in India

Author:
Shibani Ghosh
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The recent uproar about the toxic levels of pollution in the country’s national capital region has once again brought to fore the failure of the regulatory and legal mechanisms in India to control air pollution. Despite an early legislative acknowledgment of the issues relating to air pollution, and regulatory mechanisms set up consequently, India has not been able to restrict the sharp upward trajectory of air pollution. While several issues with regard to the legal and regulatory regime governing air quality in the country deserve serious and urgent consideration, this paper focuses on one issue in particular – the liability regime for violation of air quality standards. The paper is divided into three parts. The first part discusses the relevant provisions of the law pertaining to liability - civil and criminal - for causing air pollution. The second part identifies three critical issues that have emerged in the current liability regime: (1) the Pollution Control Boards do not have the power to levy penalties; (2) criminal prosecution is not an effective solution; and (3) the National Green Tribunal Act does not provide complete relief. The third and final part of the essay proposes a way forward. It is suggested that the Pollution Control Boards need to be granted additional enforcement powers, and administrative fines for violations should be introduced, albeit with certain conditions.
Topic:
Environment, Health, Governance, Law Enforcement, Law, Reform, and Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

149. Channelling household savings to productive uses through the capital markets

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna, Vardhana Pawaskar, and Ankit Bhardwaj
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Savings provides the means for investments. Typically, investments are primarily funded through domestic savings and the rest through foreign capital inflows. Domestic savings are from three sources -- households, private and public sector. Household savings form the largest part of total savings. As domestic savings contributes the most to capital formation, it can also be a limiting factor to investments. The paper deals with changing pattern of Household savings, its shift away from capital (financial) markets towards unproductive assets like gold and possibilities of channelization household savings to investment rather than speculative assets. The paper looks at the current policy incentives in terms of tax to boost capital market investment and whether it has served the purpose of long term capital formation. The current savings environment indicates a high proportion being in physical rather than financial assets. Within financial assets derivatives are preferred over the cash equity. We propose that an investment of incentive structure should support a pyramid where the small investors would hold maximum in the less risky assets and reduce the holdings as they move towards risky assets. Our paper is organized as, section (2) studies trends in current macro-economic scenario in terms of the savings; section (3), deals with, the capital formation and share of capital markets in terms of raising new capital. In section (4), we look at the current investment pattern in Indian capital markets and the incentives provides to boost trading in the equity and derivative products. Section (5) we give our proposal on the layered approach to investment architecture. Finally, section (6) concludes the paper.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Capital Flows, and Investment
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

150. How Will Bihar Shake Out?

Author:
Neelanjan Sircar, Bhanu Joshi, and Ashish Ranjan
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The exit polls are out in Bihar, and we are none the wiser. It is seemingly a photo finish between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Janata Dal United [JD(U)]-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress Grand Alliance. The Bihar election is ending as it began, full of theatre and intrigue. We can only guess how it ends. We were making our way to East Champaran; we didn’t realise Narendra Modi’s rally would be in Gopalganj district that day. The rally was over, but traffic had stopped moving 2 km from the rally site; we would be stuck at the same spot for the next few hours. Nowhere else to go, we got out of the car and started chatting with rally-goers. An exuberant BJP supporter exclaimed, “We have 8-10 lakh people today!” This was clearly an overestimate, but the crowd was bigger than we had seen elsewhere. We stopped in at a roadside stand where 4-5 men were being served their thalis and asked from where they had come to attend the rally. “Dewaria,” responded one man (Dewaria is in Uttar Pradesh (UP), not Bihar). He went on, “None of us are from Bihar. People are coming from Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Allahabad. The Party gives us enough money to eat lunch as well.” The Muslim shopkeeper who was cooking for them, the only person there who would actually be voting in Bihar, was clearly supporting the Grand Alliance, but he was happy for the extra money generated from the rally. The real reason for the traffic bottleneck then became clear. The road had narrowed to a single lane. While we headed further into Bihar, bus after bus, each with a “UP” license plate, was headed the other way. We analysts often mistakenly use rallies to gauge the hawa for a party. But, ultimately, rallies are about theatre and spectacle, while elections are won on the strength of the ground-level campaign. Privately, a section of BJP workers have been telling us that they can now see the NDA losing in this election, not something we heard in the first couple of weeks of the campaign. In our previous piece, using available data, we argued that the NDA would have to do very well in the third and fourth phases of this five-phase election if it is to win, something that even BJP leaders have now said publicly. Given that the NDA was well ahead in 2014, the NDA might still pull off this victory. It is clear, however, that the Grand Alliance has run a stronger ground campaign than the NDA, and that the campaign has had a major impact on changing voters’ minds. The NDA now seems unlikely to get near the 172 assembly constituency (AC) segments it won in 2014. In the remainder of this piece, we assess the structure of the Grand Alliance, how it shaped the campaign, as well as how the campaigns, for both NDA and the Grand Alliance, conducted themselves during this election.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia