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1. Cyber Deterrence in Singapore: Framework & Recommendations

Author:
Eugene Eg Tan
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
As a small state, Singapore’s ability to create deterrence against cyberattacks is very limited. There is limited value in pursuing classic deterrence through denial and punishment because: (i) technology is relatively cheap and widely available; (ii) there is difficulty in accurately attributing blame; and (iii) there is difficulty in identifying and punishing attackers. If there is no detection or ability to punish, Singapore’s credibility suffers. The report suggests six ways that Singapore can improve its cyberattack deterrence: 1. Develop a response mechanism to guide deterrence 2. Create resilient systems 3. Share collective responsibility in cybersecurity 4. Increase capabilities through the improvement of penetration detection 5. Create norms with enforcement capabilities 6. Strengthen international law enforcement, cooperation, and legislation It is also not feasible to measure deterrence in cyberspace the same way as nuclear deterrence, where a no-attack scenario denotes that deterrence is successful. Rather, deterrence should be seen as a mitigating effort that leads potential attackers to believe it is not in their best interest to attack. These efforts at deterrence can be further enhanced by improving the accuracy of attribution, the detection of cyber incidents regardless of size, and ensuring that timely action is taken against cyberattackers.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Cybersecurity, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Asia and Singapore

2. Incident Prevention and Mitigation In The Asia Pacific Littorals: Framing, Expanding, and Adding to Cues

Author:
Graham Ong-Webb, Collin Koh, and Bernard Miranda
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
This paper explores the possibility of South China Sea claimants and regional countries playing an active role in developing measures to prevent untoward incidents involving government (including naval and maritime law enforcement) and non-government vessels while political negotiations take place with respect to the proposed Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China. It argues that such a comprehensive incident prevention and mitigation plan must be multidimensional and multilevel in its approach, cascading from the political, strategic, operational, to tactical levels. This study breaks down into three main sections. The first examines the framing of the existing Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and its expansion as well as any new prevention and mitigation initiatives. The center of gravity and theory of success for CUES must be at operational and tactical levels, this paper highlights, while also proposing that CUES should be expanded to include sub- surface and aerial- based actions as other potential triggers for unplanned encounters and unintended escalations at sea. The end-state calls for a comprehensive CUES in light of the multidimensional nature of the SCS maritime landscape. The second section of this paper assesses the prospects for an expanded CUES, focusing on maritime law enforcement and irregular forces. It examines the viability of expanding this mechanism through what this paper terms as “Phased” and “Blanket” Approaches, which is dependent on the regional political climate. The third, final section raises two proposals at the strategic level, and six proposals pegged at the operational and tactical levels of planning and activity to build on and enhance the existing slate of such mechanisms as CUES to promote navigational safety and risk reduction in regional waters.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Maritime, Conflict, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, South China, and Brunei

3. Orienting ASEAN Towards Its People: Enabling Engagement with Local NGOs

Author:
Serina Rahman
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
Non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil-society organisations and grassroots groups are a growing phenomenon across Southeast Asia. Many of these organisations fill in gaps and provide services that are not otherwise met by local authorities and governments; others purport to be the voice of the marginalised, disempowered or discriminated. There is a broad spectrum of these organisations present in Southeast Asia – from the home-grown entity that scavenges funds from myriad sources and volunteers; to large, international establishments with substantial regular funding, full-time staff and transnational networks and influence. ASEAN’s history in dealing with NGOs is chequered. Most affiliated organisations are government-owned or government-influenced organisations (GONGOs) who support ASEAN’s goals and legitimise its policies. This paper proposes that ASEAN should be more supportive of local ground-up organisations so that the regional body can act upon its goal of nurturing caring, equitable and inclusive communities with an empowered civil society, as well as fulfil its commitment to achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. An NGO Matrix that can be used as a tool to plot organisation types could help identify groups that should get the most support. As a demonstrative example, the tool has been applied to several environmental organisations currently active in South Malaysia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Environment, United Nations, Non State Actors, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

4. China-Myanmar Relations Since Naypyidaw’s Political Transition: How Beijing can Balance Short-term Interests and Long-term Values

Author:
Chenyang Li and James Char
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
In discussions on Myanmar's political reforms since the installation of a civilianised military regime in 2011, most analysts have focused on the bedevilment of bilateral ties between Beijing and Naypyidaw. To be sure, China has since become more attuned to the concerns of non-state actors with the opening up of Myanmar's political space as well as recalibrated its strategies in the face of renewed diplomatic competition from other countries in vying for the affections of the Burmese leadership. In acknowledging the corrections China‘s Myanmar policy has undergone, this article argues that Beijing‘s factoring in of Burmese national interests and development needs can help enhance its prospects. While a return to the previous robust bilateral relationship may appear inconceivable in the near future, this article concludes that there is still hope for Beijing in overcoming the challenges posed by Naypyidaw's political transition should it be able to keep up with the latter's evolution over the longer term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Myanmar