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61. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020

Author:
John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

62. Summitry from G5 to L20: A Review of Reform Initiatives

Author:
Peter I. Hajnal
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Pressures to reform the Group of Eight (G8) have come from a variety of sources and perspectives, including academic analysts, practitioners, civil society, leaders of non-G8 countries, and even some of the G8 leaders themselves. Over its 32-year history, this elite forum of democratic industrialized countries has shown its ability to accommodate change, but it is rooted in an earlier era, and the growing power shift in global relations toward emerging market countries has not been reflected in either its scope or its membership. In recent years there has been a plethora of proposals to reform the club, from narrowing its brief to having it to coexist with a new and more representative body, and from membership expansion to complete abolition. To appreciate the full extent of this set of debates, this paper looks back at the origins of the summit and its intended architecture. It then reviews and analyses actual and proposed reforms over the summit's history, from early pressures to modify the original G5 through current attempts to move beyond the G8 to an Leaders' 20 (L20) or perhaps a group of 14.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Development, and Emerging Markets

63. Beyond the International Monetary Fund: The Broader Institutional Arrangements in Global Financial Governance

Author:
Tony Porter
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In recent years there has been an upswing in interest in the reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In contrast to its earlier years, the IMF today exists in an international environment populated by a wide variety of public and private-sector international institutions that compete with and complement the work done by the IMF. A key factor in the IMF's performance and future prospects is its relationship with these institutions. This paper analyzes institutional developments in the IMF's environment, linking these with broader contemporary social trends, and drawing conclusions about the significance of these developments for IMF reform. These social trends include a shift from hierarchies to networks, A recognition of the socially-constructed character of knowledge and the growing importance of this knowledge relative to material resources, and a shift from a reliance on US hegemony to multilateralism. The paper argues that the IMF has taken some modest steps in its work to include these considerations and enhance its relationship with other institutions, but these elements need to be included in the process of IMF reform to a much greater degree.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance

64. The Political Economy of IMF Surveillance

Author:
Ngaire Woods and Domenico Lombardi
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper investigates the political economy foundations of International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance by developing a taxonomy that accounts for its differential impact across the membership and examine its rationale in light of how surveillance has historically affected members' economic policies. With powerful member countries now pressing for the IMF to strengthen surveillance, we identify the factors that would enable it to affect the policies of its member countries, exploring the impact that IMF's internal governance has on the effectiveness of both bilateral and multilateral surveillance and contrasting it with the experience of select international organizations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

65. Great Expectations: Mexico's Short-lived Convergence under NAFTA

Author:
Carol Wise
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Upon Mexico's entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), neo-classical trade theory assumed, first, that it had the greatest potential for higher rates of growth, productivity and overall welfare gains due to its relatively underdeveloped status; and second, that Mexico's adjustment to an integrated, liberal economy would be the most painful but also the most beneficial. It was envisioned that the blending of Mexico's endowment factors – cheap labour, natural resources, and proximity to the US market – with the abundant capital and advanced technology of Canada and the US would maximize on NAFTA's competitive potential over the long-term. However, these expectations have yet to fully materialize. This paper reviews the convergence/divergence debate with regard to NAFTA and Mexico, and analyzes the empirical data that have been used to tout both the benefits and the costs of asymmetrical integration. In light of the standstill in Mexico's per capita growth since 2001, this paper concludes with a critique of the potential role of NAFTA as a development tool and argues that the steep regional asymmetries call for a more proactive continental strategy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
America, Central America, and Mexico

66. Consequences of an Emerging China: Is Development Space Disappearing for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Nicola Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The economic rise of China has caused a redrawing of global production and value chains, a restructuring of the global division of labour, and a restructuring of patterns of global demand and of the terms of trade. This paper examines the nature of the emerging economic relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean and China, and seeks to offer some reflections on the significance of this relationship for Latin American and Caribbean development. It begins with an overview of trade and investment relationships between Latin American countries and China, and examines the significance of the emergence of China for the region's development strategies and developmental prospects in greater detail. This paper reflects on the early impact of these emerging arrangements on the existing economic relationship between Latin America and the United States, and seeks in some ways to challenge understandings of this sort based on national economies and instead argues for a focus on global production and value chains, as well the new transnational division of labour.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

67. Economic Size Trumps All Else? Lessons from BRICSAM

Author:
Timothy Shaw, Andrew F. Cooper, and Agata Antkiewicz
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Continuing CIGI's BRICSAM research, this paper questions whether size (economic or population) of emerging economies alone is enough to warrant accommodation in the rules and structures of the international system. The global realignment of states following the resulting power vacuum brought on by the end of the Cold War is finally materializing, as a new triangular formation has taken shape: the 'first world' club of the OECD; the 'second world' of emerging economies; and, a heterogeneous 'third world' of the rest. The interplay between and mobility among these groups of states deserves in-depth analysis. The core of this paper observes the economic and social trends of countries in the second tier, and their upwards aspirations towards the top-tier of the global architecture. Traced through a variety of indices, the growth of the BRICSAM group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ASEAN-4 and Mexico) is demonstrated to be a powerful force in international economics and political economy. For the inclusion of these states, a change in the key aspects of global economic governance, the international architecture and geopolitics seems inevitable, and with it, new challenges arise for decision-makers and scholars alike.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

68. A Fresh Approach to US Energy Security and Alternative Fuels: The Western Hemisphere and the Ethanol Option

Author:
Annette Hester
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Spurred by world events, energy security has vaulted to the top of the US political agenda. Concerns about supply interruptions and rising prices sped approval of an energy bill which Congress had in the works for nearly five years. Moreover, the growing prominence of the nation's energy challenges, drew special attention from President Bush in his 2006 State of the Union Address, sparking a renewed search for viable alternative fuels. Of those, ethanol is receiving the lion's share of attention. This paper will argue that the new US focus on energy alternatives will undoubtedly impact the ethanol and agriculture markets. However, this discussion will also advance the notion that a key element of an effective ethanol strategy from both cost and environmental perspectives lies in forging technological and open trading relationships in the Western Hemisphere, particularly with Brazil and Canada.
Topic:
Security, Development, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and Brazil

69. Recent Regional Agreements: Why so many, so fast, so different and where are they headed?

Author:
John Whalley
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) both concluded and under negotiation. This paper attempts to document and discuss this growth focusing on the United States (US), the European Union (EU), China, India and the agreements of other countries. The form, coverage, and content of these agreements vary considerably from case to case. This paper poses the following questions: why so many, why the variation, and why the recent increase in RTAs? Implications for the trading system are discussed in a final section.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

70. Developing Countries and the WTO Agriculture Negotiations

Author:
Jennifer Clapp
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The Doha 'Development' Round of trade negotiations at the WTO has featured agricultural trade liberalization as one of its key aims. But developing countries were frustrated with both the process and the content of the agricultural agreement negotiations early on in the Round. This prompted these countries, through a number of developing country groupings such as the G-20 and others, to call for changes in the talks to ensure that developing country voices and concerns were heard. Though developing countries were in many ways successful in registering their concerns in the latter half of the negotiations and have maintained a fairly high degree of cohesion across the Global South, it remains unclear whether this cohesion will last as the uneven impacts of agricultural trade liberalization become apparent.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
Uruguay