Number of results to display per page
Search Results
42. Developing Countries – even China – Cannot Rescue the World Economy
- Author:
- Manmohan Agarwal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Many analysts believe that developed countries will recover very slowly from the global economic crisis. Consequently, they have looked to the emerging economies of the developing world to help stabilize the world economy and generate a stronger recovery. Indeed, when the financial crisis first engulfed the rich countries in 2008 and early 2009, growth in developing economies was not affected as their banks and financial systems faced neither credit problems nor a more serious meltdown. It is true that some foreign investors, particularly institutional investors, withdrew their money from developing countries with large stock exchanges, setting off stock price declines and some currency devaluations. But this did not affect the “real” economy of production and employment. There was a wide belief that many developing economies were “decoupled” from the rich economies and could continue to grow and this growth would buoy the world economy. Even when output declined dramatically in the developed economies, reducing the demand for developing countries' exports, it was expected that growth in the larger emerging economies would not be significantly affected. This has been borne out by subsequent events. Growth in China has been 8-9 percent and in India about 6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and India
43. The Obama Administration and Latin America: Towards a New Partnership?
- Author:
- Daniel P. Erikson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The presidency of Barack Obama ushered in a welcome honeymoon period in US-Latin American relations following eight years of the Bush administration's polarizing policies towards the region. Early optimism has been tempered by the reappearance of tensions in hemispheric relations. They include the rise of Brazil as a regional power, the role of Venezuela and the continued strain in US-Cuban relations. Regional relations are further complicated by China's growing economic presence in Latin America, increased ties with Iran and Russia, different US and Latin reactions to the June 2009 coup in Honduras, and the crisis response to the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Still, the US has potential to advance a strategy of substantive, issue oriented engagement designed to rekindle the early goodwill that resulted from Obama's election to the White House.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Latin America, and Haiti
44. Approaches to Fostering Productivity Growth in Brazil, China and India
- Author:
- John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, and Yao Li
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Productivity growth is a significant contributor to GDP growth, particularly to increases in per capita income. However, there is considerable ambiguity regarding how to measure the concept of technical progress, and consequently on policies that would foster productivity growth. Brazil, China and India, three important emerging economies, are seeking to foster productivity growth through encouraging innovation and technology transfers from the more developed economies. But given the ambiguities about how to encourage innovation and technology transfers, governments in these countries adopted a plethora of policies in the hope that the combination will be effective. This ambiguity can also be seen in the much slower growth of productivity in Brazil than China, even though Brazil has scored higher on the World Bank's Knowledge Assessment Methodology.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Brazil
45. Bridging the North-South Divide on Climate Post Copenhagen
- Author:
- John Whalley and Sean Walsh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The United Nations climate change negotiations currently underway and now seemingly likely to conclude only six to 12 months after the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) hosted meeting at Copenhagen in December 2009, are beset by a series of obstacles, the most fundamental of which reflect the North-South divide, largely between the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD economies. In this brief we argue that movement across this divide is the single most important element in a successful conclusion to the negotiation. Current obstacles reflect asymmetries between developing and developed countries both in terms of growth in carbon emissions — and hence the costs of reducing emissions proportionately relative to some base date level, but also in terms of historical emissions as a source of damage. These are compounded by the imprecision of the negotiating mandate — a lack of a clear definition of the basic principles involved, particularly in the case of the original UNFCCC principle of common yet differentiated responsibilities, which accepts but does not clearly delineate differentiated responsibilities for developing and developed countries on climate change. Significant movement in the negotiating position of either side (or both) is likely a necessity for a climate deal to be reached even in post-Copenhagen negotiations. However, the recent unilateral commitment by China to reduce emissions by 40-45 percent per unit of GDP from a 2005 base year by 2020 is a positive first step.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- China and United Nations
46. The BRICSAM Countries and Changing World Economic Power: Scenarios to 2050
- Author:
- Manmohan Agarwal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Rapid economic growth in the large developing countries collectively known as BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico) has the potential to change the balance of economic power in the world. This paper analyzes this potential building on developments in these economies over the past four decades in the context of the evolution of the world economy. This evolution has two significant features: increasing economic integration and a hiatus in growth. Increasing integration can be observed in the almost universal rise in the share of the exports of goods and services in GDP, and the increase in private capital flows. There has been a hiatus in growth since the 1973-1974 increase in the price of oil.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico
47. The Implications of China's Ascendancy for Africa
- Author:
- Hany Besada
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- China's spectacular economic progress has led some security analysts and policy makers in the North and the South to question Beijing's intentions in other parts of the world. This paper examines the extent to which China's engagement with Africa has produced mutual benefits for both and whether Africa is reaping the necessary benefits required for poverty alleviation and economic development. Chinese state-owned enterprises have invested billions of dollars in foreign reserves, construction, and engineering resources assisting African oil-producing exporters. While many in the west have started to question China's extraordinary level of interest in Africa – in particular, its economic engagement with perceived repressive regimes – African leaders view China's entry as a means of pulling Africa onto the path of globalization. It is thus important that African leaders and policy makers ensure that Chinese trade and investment bring reciprocal and tangible benefits for Africans, and contribute to economic stability and good governance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and China
48. China's Role as a Trade Bridge for Expanding Regional and World Trade
- Author:
- Min Gong and Wenpu Li
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- To understand China's trade relations with the US, Japan, and South Korea, we estimate a vector autoregressive model (VAR) model to investigate the trade interactions among these four countries using data from the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2005. We find substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-induced indirect trade from Japan and Korea to the US through China, and between Japan and Korea through China. These indirect trade flows lead to increases in China's trade deficit with Japan and Korea as well as China's trade surplus with the US. The indirect trade flows through China also indicate the importance of China's role as a trade bridge. From the viewpoint of world trade growth, as a trade bridge, China contributes to the stable growth of the regional and world economies. However, China's role as a trade bridge may negatively affect its long-run economic growth.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea
49. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps
- Author:
- O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
50. EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System
- Author:
- Simon Evenett
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the bipolar multilateral trading system of the post-war years has given way to a multipolar alternative. Although many specifics have yet to be determined, some contours of this new trade policy landscape are coming into focus and in this short paper I examine their implications for the European Union's external commercial policy. Particular attention is given to both the state of business-government relations and the propensity to liberalise under the auspices of reciprocal trade agreements by Brazil, India, and China; the potential new poles of the world trading system. I consider the likely consequences of these developments, plus factors internal to both the European Union and the United States, for the possible con-tent of future multilateral trade initiatives.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil