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61. What Are the Limits to Economic Integration?

Author:
Paul Brenton
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper discusses the continuing importance of borders, even within the EU, for the volume of international trade and global capital flows. It suggests that a range of factors, including the nature of the commercial, social and legal fabric of a country and the structure of consumers' preferences, act to constrain cross-border exchanges relative to internal transactions. Hence, whilst the process of globalisation may continue, there are likely to be distinct limits to the extent of economic integration. This entails that the traditional roles of governments in OECD countries in providing social welfare and regulating the market economy within national boundaries will not be seriously undermined. However, the situation may differ in developing countries where existing social and legal institutions may be compromised by globalisation rather than acting to dampen its impact.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

62. Fiscal Policy Spillovers in the Euro Area: Where Are They?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Alexandr Hobza
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
What impact would a fiscal expansion in Germany have on the rest of the euro area? It has been generally suggested that it could go in either of two opposite directions, depending on the relative strength of two effects: the direct trade linkage and the financial market repercussions. A review of the results from four major macroeconomic models shows that the cross-country spillover effects of fiscal policy are indeed of uncertain sign and magnitude. Different models give quite different results if used in standardised simulations in terms of the sign, magnitude and time profile of the impact of a fiscal expansion in one member country (e.g. Germany) on other euro area countries. Fewer results are available concerning the potential spillover effects of structural policies, but they are similar to the ones concerning a budgetary stimulus: the magnitude of the spillover is small and varies across countries and over time.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

63. Extending Citizenship Rights to Third Country Nationals

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Various issues arise in the European context with respect to the boundaries of citizenship; one of the main questions is to what extent the division between the European Union citizens and third country nationals will increase, especially if “deepening” of the Union leads to more tightening of its external borders. This paper addresses the question of how far citizenship rights can be extended to third country migrants in the EU?
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

64. The Changing Nature and Determinants of EU Trade Policies

Author:
Paul Brenton
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
EU trade policies and the environment in which they are determined are now considerably different from when the EU came into being in the 1950s. With the exceptions of agriculture and textiles and clothing, tariffs and quantitative restrictions on trade in goods have been reduced to historically very low levels. But trade policy is now about much more than border restrictions upon trade in goods. Trade in services and the impact of national differences in regulatory regimes are now firmly on the trade policy agenda. This paper describes the current multilateral and preferential trade policies of the EU. It highlights the increasing importance of regulatory issues and the fact that some of these are being addressed outside of both multilateral and standard bilateral free trade agreements. This reflects the mixed motives behind EU trade policies and that for trade with certain regions the typical political economy factors framing trade policy are no longer relevant. For example, liberalisation of transatlantic trade, in the limited form at present of mutual recognition of conformity assessment, is being strongly driven by large corporate business. This trend suggests that the pyramid of preferences usually used to depict EU trade policies is becoming very distorted.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

65. One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Author:
Daniel Gros and Carsten Hefeker
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a central bank that minimises the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks and that this can lead to higher average union-wide expected welfare, if the variability of common shocks is large relative to the inflation bias. But for countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can actually be lower in this case. The inflationary bias depends on the interaction between the transmission mechanism and distortions in labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

66. The International Trade of Multinational Firms: The Empirical Behaviour of Intrafirm Trade in a Gravity Equation Model

Author:
Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

67. Technical Barriers to Trade in the European Union: Importance for Accession Countries

Author:
Paul Brenton, John Sheehy, and Marc Vancauteren
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
With trade in industrial products between the EU and the CEECs now essentially free of tariff and non-tariff restrictions, the principal impact of accession to the EU on trade flows will be through access to the Single Market of the EU. A key element of this will be the removal of technical barriers to trade. In this paper we try and highlight the importance of technical barriers to trade between the EU and the various CEECs, distinguishing sectors according to the different approaches to the removal of these barriers in the EU: mutual recognition, detailed harmonisation (old approach) and minimum requirements (new approach). We utilise two sources of information on technical regulations: a sectoral classification from a previous study of the impact of the Single Market and our own detailed translation of EU product related directives into the relevant tariff codes. The analysis suggests that the importance of technical barriers varies considerably across the CEECs. The adjustment implications of access to the Single Market are likely to be greatest for those most advanced in their accession negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

68. Goodbye, Agenda 2000, Hello Agenda 2003: Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures, and EU Net Balances

Author:
Michael Emerson and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper describes the development of the negotiations from the birth of the Agenda 2000 proposals to the end of the Berlin European Council Summit and discusses the consequences of the outcome. The study shows to what extent net contributions to the EU budget and narrow national interests dominated the negotiations, at the expense of the original aims of the reforms (to prepare the Union for enlargement and for the next round of WTO negotiations), which were practically forgotten. This type of behaviour is by no means unique. On the contrary, it has been recurrent in the history of the EU. Estimates of future expenditures and own resources show that the Berlin European Council conclusions will prove to be far from satisfactory.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Berlin

69. Health Not Wealth

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Health, and not wealth, should be the decisive criterion when considering the prospects of the Central and Eastern European candidates for EU membership and the capacity of the EU to enlarge. Viewed from this perspective, the outlook is promising. The CEECs are still very poor, compared to most of the existing EU members, but they are also much more dynamic. Their growth rates are generally expected to remain around 4-5% for the foreseeable future, compared to about 2-3% for the EU. This still implies that full catch-up in terms of GDP per capita will take decades, rather than years, but full catch-up is not the relevant goal if one is concerned about enlargement. Experience in the EU has shown that problems are much more likely to arise from established rich member countries with stagnant economies (Belgium in the 1980s and part of the 1990s) than poor, but more dynamic states (e.g. Portugal and Ireland today). The fact that most of the so-called 'periphery' is now experiencing stronger growth than the 'core' confirms that EU integration benefits poorer countries even more.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Belgium, Portugal, and Ireland

70. Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures and EU Net Balances

Author:
Jorge Nuñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Berlin Summit has been concluded with the suspicious outcome in which every Head of State declares victory. The tone is not so victorious by the Presidency, however, which honestly declared that Germany didn't “win the lottery”. There is reason for suspicion if, after long and arduous discussions to reform policies and reduce EU expenditure, member states declare satisfaction at the result. Something must be amiss, if painful reforms appear not to hurt. In fact, after preliminary calculations and some political considerations, there are grounds to suspect that the reforms proposed are less than satisfactory.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Berlin