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361. Foreign Investment in the US (I): Disappearing in a black hole?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The US international investment position today should in principle be equal to the sum of past current account balances (mostly deficits). However, this is by far not the case even taking into account the balancing item 'errors and omissions'. Between 1982 and 2004, the US has accumulated a grand total of around $4.5 trillion (thousand billion). (The sum of current account deficits has been about $1 trillion smaller than the amount of net sales of US assets to the rest of the world because of the anomaly in reinvested earning.) Despite this accumulation of deficits the US net international debtor position (IIP) has deteriorated 'only' by $2.7 billion (and is now estimated – at the end of 2004, end 2005 figures are not yet available for the US IIP – at 'only' around $2.5 trillion). This implies a total of 'unearned' gains to the US of around $1.8 trillion during 22 years. The quite detailed data available for a somewhat shorter period (1989-2004) show that only a very small part of this sum, around 10-20%, can be explained by exchange rate and stock market changes.</p
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

362. Foreign Investment in the US (II): BEING TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The income account of the US balance of payments has so far remained in surplus because of a very large differential in reported earnings on direct investment – US firms seem to enjoy a much higher rate of return than foreign firms in the US. There is little difference in terms of the rate of dividend payments; the difference is due to what is called 'reinvested earnings' (earnings minus dividends). Foreign firms report almost no reinvested earnings on their direct investment in the US whereas US firms report substantial reinvested earnings from their direct investment abroad, on average over $100 billion more p.a. than foreign firms report on their US investment. This anomaly is probably due to the desire of foreign firms to minimise their US taxes, whereas US firms do not face tax liabilities if they report high foreign profits to the US authorities. The procedure used to generate the data for reinvested earnings thus has a built-in bias to improve the US current account and – over time – its international investment position. The true picture is likely to be much worse.</p
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

363. Ukraine and the European Neighbourhood Policy: Ensuring the Free Movement of Goods and Services

Author:
Olga Shumylo
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The negotiation of a regional trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine's deeper integration with the West. Drawing on analyses of official and independent analytical materials and statistical data, this paper explores the form such an arrangement should take – namely, which of the existing models would be an appropriate model for EU-Ukraine trade relations: a Free Trade Agreement, a Customs Union or something along the lines of the European Economic Area Agreement.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

364. Moldova's Convergence with the Acquis - A Pro-Growth and Pro-Integration Strategy

Author:
Oxana Gutu
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The enlargement of the EU and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have revived the debate in the 'neighbourhood countries' around the need to converge legislation with EU internal rules and regulations, known as the acquis communautaire. The political incentive of accession to the EU, which has driven legal approximation in new EU member states, is missing for ENP countries. Yet, in the case of countries like Moldova, the cost of non-compliance is significant and translates into loss of existing export markets (e.g. in Romania) and the inability to expand into new markets (SEE countries and the EU). The situation is made still worse by a poor level of economic governance. As convergence with the acquis is a huge task, the key challenge for ENP countries is to determine the priorities, sequence and degree of legal approximation. This paper argues that the optimum degree and appropriate pace of convergence need to be driven by economic rationale and the development of the trade potential of the country. Thus, to secure benefits and avoid high costs for the economy, the legal approximation agenda will be moving along clearly identified economic integration scenarios, i.e. achieving a functioning market economy; taking full advantage of EU trade preferences (GSP and APTs), preparing for an FTA with the EU and, over a considerable number of years, gradually achieving a stake in the EU's Internal Market.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Romania

365. Knowledge Capital as the Source of Growth

Author:
Hannu Piekkola
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Regional disparities in the growth rates of GDP and total factor productivity (TFP) are a major policy concern in the European Union, not least because of the inclusion of new transition economies in the EU. The growth rate of a nation's TFP especially depends on its level of human capital rather than the increasing rate of human capital. The growth that is driven by innovation and the catching-up process spurred by technology imitation relies on educationbased human capital and related agglomeration. This explains why education provides a permanent advantage, which over time may increase in importance in the labour market.
Topic:
Economics and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

366. Strategic Implications of the EU Crisis

Author:
Timofei V. Bordachev, Jeffrey Gedmin, and Charles Grant
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The French and Dutch rejections of the Constitutional Treaty have opened up a period of deep and protracted difficulties for the European Union. The strategic implications of the new situation are compounded by the fact that foreign and security policy was one of the areas in which significant innovations have been provided for by the treaty.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

367. Taiwan's Rising Rationalism: Generations, Politics, and "Taiwanese Nationalism"

Author:
Shelley Rigger
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
A peaceful, amicable relationship between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) is essential to prosperity and security in and beyond the Taiwan Strait. Anticipating the future direction of cross­strait relations is thus very important. But it is also very difficult, not least because key trends in the Strait seem to be headed in opposite directions. On the one hand, the scope and intensity of cross­strait interactions are expanding rapidly, creating shared interests on the two sides and eroding resistance to closer cross­strait ties. On the other hand, popular support for political unification within Taiwan is declining, and the percentage of Taiwan residents who think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese, is rising.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe and Taiwan

368. The Food Aid Debate in Trade and Development

Author:
Andreas Schneider
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It is generally agreed that making progress towards eradicating hunger worldwide is a moral obligation for the richer countries of the world. The instrument known as food aid is widely regarded as an important vehicle for providing assistance to needy countries. However, fresh debates in the present Doha round of WTO negotiations have brought a renewed interest in food aid issues. The Doha round is designed to put development at the centre of trade negotiations, and along with agriculture, to the fore among the contentious issues to be agreed.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

369. Who finances the Queen's CAP payments? The CAP as a dooH niboR Scheme

Author:
Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Thanks to the British Freedom of Information Act, the list of all CAP payments to English farms is public. It shows that the CAP is a dooH niboR scheme (that's Robin Hood spelled backwards). Table 1 records the CAP receipts for some of Britain's richest royalty. Why do royalty get paid? The CAP makes payments to farm owners, not to farmers, and about 40% of EU farmland is not farmed by its owner.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

370. Industry Location and Climate Change Policy-Making in the United States

Author:
Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Within the United States, the locations of carbon intensive industries have important implications for climate policy. This paper examines the state level and regional patterns in the distributions of key industries – coal, oil gas and autos – and their implications for US climate policy-making. It concludes that the coal industry has a disproportionate impact on climate policy because of the distorting effect of the role of a few key coal states in national elections. The analysis is presented in the context of a 'pluralistic political economy' analytical model of the US economy and political system.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States