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292. A Reinforced Obstacle to Democracy?
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Rising oil and gas prices appear to have helped shore up autocratic producer states across the world. They also seem to have led Western states to dilute their support for democratic reforms in these countries. But while this conventional wisdom correctly restates the problematic relationship between energy and democracy, the overall picture is more complex. The paper reveals that the opaque management of increased oil and gas revenues has sparked pressure for governance reforms from within producer states and has also encouraged new international initiatives linking energy security with good governance.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Government, and Oil
293. Financial Impacts of Climate Change: Implications for the EU Budget
- Author:
- Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This study focuses on the financial resources needed to fight global climate change and the implications for the EU budget. The authors apply four different methodologies to estimate global financing requirements and attempt to determine the resources that will be needed at the EU level to meet the EU's climate change objectives. The study analyses current climate change spending of the EU budget, identifies shortcomings and indicates possibilities for correcting them. It also assesses the potential of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) to raise additional resources to finance coordinated actions at the EU level aimed at fighting climate change. Finally, it provides three case studies of national public expenditure related to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
- Topic:
- Climate Change
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany
294. Stock Prices and Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. We analyse this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. We analyse how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade- off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
295. Adaptation to Climate Change in the European Union: Efficiency vs. Equity Considerations
- Author:
- Stine Aakre and Dirk T.G. Rübbelke
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- EU climate policy is based on GHG emissions reduction (mitigation), coupled with measures aimed at responding efficiently to the unavoidable consequences of climate change (adaptation). However, as the European Commission recently stated in its Green Paper on adaptation in Europe, there is still a need to develop an overall EU adaptation strategy. Moreover, such a strategy should take into consideration both efficiency and equity concerns. This study proposes a framework for EU adaptation policy that addresses both concerns and enables a transparent decision- making process. In the proposed scheme, universal weightings of the individual policy objectives have to be agreed upon prior to actual decision-making.
- Topic:
- Climate Change
- Political Geography:
- Europe
296. Financial Impacts of Climate Change: An Overview of Climate Change-related Actions in the European Commission’s Development Cooperation
- Author:
- Arno Behrens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the variety of different external aid initiatives and financing mechanisms of the European Commission addressing climate change and development objectives, such as those stemming from the 2004 EU Action Plan on Climate Change and Development, from the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) and those under the Thematic Programme for Environment and Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (ENRTP). The paper also outlines related Commission commitments with the European Investment Bank (EIB), the World Bank and the United Nations. While the European Commission has advanced a number of new initiatives, it seems that the complexity of responsibilities in the management of the current financing instruments requires organisational restructuring, a more transparent reporting mechanism and the development of better indicators to evaluate the impacts of those initiatives. Overall it appears that the Commission is just at the beginning of taking full account of climate change in development cooperation. Its contribution is rather limited in view of the financing needs related to climate change in developing countries, and innovative financing mechanisms should be sought together with member states and the private sector.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
297. The challenge of measuring inflation...when business is not as usual
- Author:
- Cecilia Frale and Jørgen Mortensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent surge in commodity prices and the European Central Bank's decision in June to raise interest rates to combat inflation have ignited a debate about the appropriateness of raising interest rates during a phase of weakening activity. In addition, it is relevant to examine the approaches to measuring the rate of inflation, to consider the advantages and drawbacks of these methods, and finally to throw new light on the possible influence of monetary policy on the fundamental trends in prices.
- Topic:
- Economics and Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
298. The Struggle for a Civilised Wider European Order
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Europe's two crises – the Georgia-Russia war of August and the ongoing global financial and economic crisis – point to huge challenges for the organisation and policies of the European Union. The present paper concentrates on the risks that the crises represent for one of the EU's prim e objective, to achieve a civilized wider European order. At least the current episodes show that with leadership the EU can act fast in both diplomacy and finance. But the next question is how to follow through, beyond a passing moment of an effective six-month presidency of the EU. This is the subject of the present note, which advocates a comprehensive upgrading of the EU's policies in the wider European area, and contributes ideas for the revision of the European Security Strategy currently being prepared. The aim would be to strengthen EU policies towards South-East Europe, East Europe and Central Asia, and defuse the current confrontation between a normative Europe and an aggressive Russian realpolitik; better still Russia might, after reflecting on what the two crises mean for its fundamental interests, conclude that the time had come for a more genuinely cooperative understanding with the EU.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Asia, and Georgia
299. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the 'gas OPEC': What's in the pipeline?
- Author:
- Hakim Darbouche
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
- Topic:
- Economics and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Algeria
300. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an 'ENP Plus'
- Author:
- Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, and Nicu Popescu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the 'willing' and the 'passive'; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the 'reluctant' and the 'excluded'. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. 'ENP plus' is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, 'ENP plus' could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an 'ENP light' model for difficult states or non-recognised entities.
- Topic:
- Development and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe