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21. The Trade and Climate Change, Joint Agenda

Author:
Thomas L Brewer
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have intersected in diverse institutional contexts and at several levels of governmental activity to form a new joint agenda. The purpose of this paper is to advance understanding of this joint agenda by identifying the specific issues that have emerged, the policies that have been adopted, especially in the EU and US, and the options that are available for further policy-making.
Topic:
Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

22. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and the US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia's huge gains from the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

23. Is the League of Democracies a Bad Idea? How Europe should respond

Author:
Richard Youngs and Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The idea of an official organisation of democratic states wishing to promote democracy worldwide has surfaced periodically in recent years. In 2000 the Community of Democracies was inaugurated and survives as a body committed to supporting democratic change (and we comment on this little-noticed initiative further below). Now the notion is gaining further currency. US Presidential candidate John McCain has advocated a League of Democracies. And analyst Robert Kagan, an advisor to McCain, has recently made a contribution on the subject in the Financial Times. It is quite possible that the European Union will need to adopt a position on this proposal.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

24. Post-Mortem on Europe's First War of the 21st Century

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili's folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia's continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petro-power and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

25. Should central banks target stock prices?

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The question of whether central banks should react to stock price developments has been hotly debated. This discussion has intensified since the eruption of the credit crisis. According to some analysts, including myself, the failure of the US Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan to react to the bubbles in the stock and housing markets helps to explain the financial excesses and the subsequent crisis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

26. The Trade and Climate Change, Joint Agenda

Author:
Thomas L Brewer
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have intersected in diverse institutional contexts and at several levels of governmental activity to form a new joint agenda. The purpose of this paper is to advance understanding of this joint agenda by identifying the specific issues that have emerged, the policies that have been adopted, especially in the EU and US, and the options that are available for further policy-making.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

27. Financial Impacts of Climate Change: Implications for the EU Budget

Author:
Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This study focuses on the financial resources needed to fight global climate change and the implications for the EU budget. The authors apply four different methodologies to estimate global financing requirements and attempt to determine the resources that will be needed at the EU level to meet the EU's climate change objectives. The study analyses current climate change spending of the EU budget, identifies shortcomings and indicates possibilities for correcting them. It also assesses the potential of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) to raise additional resources to finance coordinated actions at the EU level aimed at fighting climate change. Finally, it provides three case studies of national public expenditure related to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

28. The challenge of measuring inflation...when business is not as usual

Author:
Cecilia Frale and Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The recent surge in commodity prices and the European Central Bank's decision in June to raise interest rates to combat inflation have ignited a debate about the appropriateness of raising interest rates during a phase of weakening activity. In addition, it is relevant to examine the approaches to measuring the rate of inflation, to consider the advantages and drawbacks of these methods, and finally to throw new light on the possible influence of monetary policy on the fundamental trends in prices.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

29. Inquiry into the EU-US Passenger Name Record Agreement

Author:
Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The collection, retention, manipulation, exchange and correction of personal data in Europe have once again become a matter of substantial interest. The last time the use of data constituted an important political issue in Europe, in the 1970s, the result (at the European level) was the Council of Europe's Convention for the Protection of Individuals with regard to Automatic Processing of Personal Data, which opened for signature in 1981. This Convention, to which all EU member states are party, still sets the standard for data use in Europe.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

30. Bubbles in real estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the US

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The downturn in the US housing market has attracted a lot of attention as it has sparked a global financial crisis. It is generally assumed that the eurozone does not face a similar problem. This paper shows that this assumption is wrong. The euro area average index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (as that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is similar to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by over a decade of continuous decline. Over the last 30 years, the euro area index for real housing prices has tended to follow that of the US quite closely. The lag is now much shorter than in the 1970s or 1980s. The euro area market is thus likely to turn soon as well. One feature of housing price cycles that tends to be forgotten is their extraordinary length: many last for more than ten years. This persistence means that the downswing, which now seems to have started, is likely to last at least until the next decade. Within the euro area, there are large divergences: cases of 'froth' (Spain, for example) co-exist alongside cases of declining prices (Germany). These divergences have persisted for over a decade and have led to important macroeconomic disequilibria. The paper also develops an indicator of 'housing overhang', which shows by how much demand for new construction has to decline to bring the supply of housing back to normal levels. This indicator suggests that there is virtually no housing overhang in the eurozone on average and that it is of a manageable magnitude in the US. Spain and Ireland, however, face a massive housing overhang and thus probably a sharp deceleration of construction demand.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Europe