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11. Obama's Foreign Policy: Is this change we can believe in?

Author:
Camille Grand, Ivan Safranchuk, David Calleo, and Shen Dingli
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For several months following the election of November, 2008, most Americans took great pleasure in their charismatic new president. A series of soaring speeches, frank interviews and pragmatic initiatives made real changes for the better seem possible. Of course other presidents have begun with high hopes, only to be ensnared in multiple dilemmas inherited from their predecessors. By the summer of 2009, Obama's own prospects begin to seem more problematic. Disagreements have surfaced between the Presidency and the Congress and rumours proliferate about splits within the ad ministration's own ranks. Fear grows that the president – attempting simultaneously to overcome a severe financial crisis, address long- neglected needs of the domestic economy and win two intractable wars – has overreached himself.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

12. What lessons from the 1930s?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the picture is less clear. We cannot confirm a widespread opinion according to which fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. We find that fiscal policy went to the limit of what was possible within the confines of sustainability, as they existed then. Our investigation of the US banking system shows a surprising resilience of the sector: commercial banking operations (deposit-taking and lending) remained profitable even during the worst years. This suggests one policy conclusion: At present the authorities in both the US and Europe have little choice but to make up for the losses on 'legacy' assets and wait for banks to earn back their capital. But to prevent future crises of this type, one should make sure that losses from the investment banking arms cannot impair commercial banking operations. At least a partial separation of commercial and investment banking thus seems justified by the greater stability of commercial banking operations.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

13. Consumer Bankruptcy Regimes and Credit Default in the US and Europe

Author:
Maria Gerhardt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This CEPS Working Document explains the consumer bankruptcy procedures in the US and the five largest European countries: the UK, Germany, France and Spain, plus Italy (which has no special legal provisions for consumer insolvency). All these countries have quite different approaches; the paper therefore presents a short overview of the insolvency procedures and trends in bankruptcy numbers for each country.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

14. Canada and the European Union: Prospects for a Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Selen Sarisoy Guerin and Chris Napoli
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that there are significant potential economic gains to be obtained from an EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The evolution of trade between the US and Canada following the signing of CUSFTA in 1989 offers a good illustration of how trade might increase after an EU-Canada FTA, as the patterns and levels of protection between the EU and Canada today are very similar to the protection that existed between the US and Canada in 1989. Although many empirical studies fail to find support for 'trade diversion' created by NAFTA (or CUSFTA) at the expense of the EU and to the benefit of the US, there is some evidence of trade diversion when detailed regional trade is examined. If indeed trade diversion has occurred due to NAFTA, then an EU-Canada FTA is welfare-enhancing for Canada. For the EU, a potential FTA can level the playing field with the US and increase the competitiveness of European firms in the Canadian market.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Canada

15. Financial Impacts of Climate Change: Implications for the EU Budget

Author:
Christian Egenhofer, Arno Behrens, and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This study focuses on the financial resources needed to fight global climate change and the implications for the EU budget. The authors apply four different methodologies to estimate global financing requirements and attempt to determine the resources that will be needed at the EU level to meet the EU's climate change objectives. The study analyses current climate change spending of the EU budget, identifies shortcomings and indicates possibilities for correcting them. It also assesses the potential of the EU emissions trading scheme to raise additional resources to finance coordinated actions at the EU level aimed at fighting climate change. Finally, it provides three case studies of national public expenditure related to climate change in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

16. At What Cost Price Stability? New evidence about the Phillips Curve in Europe and the United States

Author:
Daniel Gros and Andrea Beccarini
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
With inflation increasing all over the world, central banks have to consider with some care how quickly to re-establish price stability. A key issue in this context is the short-run cost in terms of foregone output and higher unemployment. The aim of this paper is to determine the 'sacrifice ratio' for the Euro Area and for the United States. The main findings are: the cost of reducing inflation is in most cases higher in the US than in the EA. For example, reducing (headline) inflation by 1% point requires a decline of output of 1.4% in the EU, but 2.3% for the US. Considering core inflation, the sacrifice ratio in terms of output is somewhat higher for the Euro Area (around 4) compared to 3.2 for the US. However, the sacrifice ratios in terms of unemployment are always much larger for the US. Reducing headline inflation by 1% requires an increase in unemployment of little more than 1% in the EA, compared to 8% in the US.
Topic:
Economics and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

17. The European Union as a Normative Foreign Policy Actor

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This is the second in a series of papers from a new project entitled “Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners”. The first paper – entitled Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners, by Nathalie Tocci, CEPS Working Document No. 279, December 2007 – set out the conceptual framework for exploring this question. The present paper constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies explores eight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms, there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects. The fact that examples can be found that fit all of these different types shows the importance of 'conditioning factors', which relate to the internal interests and capabilities of the EU as a foreign policy actor as well as the external context in which other major actors may be at work.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and India

18. The United States:A normative power?

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
To what degree may the US be considered a normative power? The US foreign policy mainstream tends to reflect a varying blend of normative and hegemonic approaches. The US has been and continues to be simultaneously a guardian of international norms; a norm entrepreneur challenging prevailing norms as insufficient; a norm externaliser when it tries to advance norms for others that it is reluctant to apply to itself; and a norm blocker when it comes to issues that may threaten its position, or that exacerbate divisions among conflicting currents of American domestic thought. On balance (and despite exceptions), the US has sought to manage this normative-hegemonic interplay by accepting some limits on its power in exchange for greater legitimacy and acceptance of its leadership by others. The unresolved question today is whether the US and other key players are prepared to stick with this bargain. Closer examination of the US case also raises a considerable number of questions about the notion of the EU as a 'normative power'.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

19. Let's Stop Being Gloomy About Europe

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Pessimism has been rampant in many EU-countries over the past decade, largely fed by lagging productivity growth in the EU since the late 1990s and a perception that the US has a superior economic model. This perception has led to the view that the only way to restore higher levels of productivity growth is by introducing deep structural reforms in the EU, making goods and labour markets more flexible. This paper presents the argument that such pessimism is excessive: a significant part of the productivity growth differential between the US and the EU is cyclical, and is already turning around. In addition, there are areas in which the EU is structurally better prepared than the US to face the challenges of globalisation.
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

20. The US Housing Bust and Soaring Oil Prices: What next for the world economy?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cecilia Frale
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of the ongoing housing bust and oil price boom on the US and European economies. It finds that large house price movements (changes in construction investment) are useful to predict exceptionally bad and good times for the US economy, but not for most large European countries. In Europe housing market developments have led to extreme values of GDP, mainly in the UK, Spain and some Nordic countries.
Topic:
Economics and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Europe