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1. ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right?

Author:
Ana-Maria Fuertes, Elena Kalotychou, and Orkun Saka
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Paul De Grauwe ' s fragility hypothesis states that member countries of a monetary union such as the eurozone are highly vulnerable to a self – fulfilling mechanism by which the efforts of investors to avoid losses from default can end up triggering the very default they fear. The authors test this hypothesis by applying an eclectic methodology to a time window around Mario Draghi ' s " whatever it takes " (to keep the eurozone on firm footing) pledge on 26 July 2012 . This pledge was soon followed by the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program me (the prospective and conditional purchase by the European Central Bank of sovereign bonds of eurozone countries having difficulty issuing debt) . The principal components of eurozone credit default swap spreads validate this choice of time frame . An event study reveals significant pre – announcement contagion emanating from Spain to Italy, Belgium, France and Austria. Furthermore, time – series regression confirms frequent clusters of large shocks affecting the credit default swap spreads of the four eurozone countries but solely during the pre – announcement period. The findings of this report support the fragility hypothesis for the eurozone and endorse the Outright Monetary Transactions programme.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Belgium, and Italy

2. An Agenda for the European Council: Feasible steps to bring the eurozone back from the precipice

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Once again the European Council will meet in an emergency session at the end of June, with the eurozone economy in recession and actually plummeting in its Southern periphery. Further doubts are also growing on the sustainability of sovereign debts due to the vicious spiral of deteriorating bank balance sheets, ballooning potential liabilities from banking rescues and widening spreads on government borrowings. The sovereign debt crisis in the periphery has now turned into a fully fledged banking crisis that threatens to spread from Greece to Spain and tomorrow, who knows, to Italy, France and even Germany itself.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

3. On the Tasks of the European Stability Mechanism

Author:
Stefano Micossi, Fabrizia Peirce, and Jacopo Carmassi
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In recent weeks pressures on the euro and eurozone sovereign debtors have subsided. Buoyant growth in the global economy, increasingly benefiting also the European economy, has of course played an important role in calming financial markets. But even more important has been the perception that France and Germany are again working constructively for a strong economic Europe. More broadly, the acute turbulence in financial markets since the spring of 2010 may have finally convinced our political leaders, notably including the German political establishment, that the benefits of a stable currency far outweigh the costs that may have to be borne to make it work properly. The euro will only be trusted if the member states effectively coordinate their economic policies not only to ensure fiscal stability, but also to eliminate persistent divergences in productivity leading to unsustainable imbalances between national savings and investment (Schäuble, 2011).
Topic:
Security, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

4. Consumer Bankruptcy Regimes and Credit Default in the US and Europe

Author:
Maria Gerhardt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This CEPS Working Document explains the consumer bankruptcy procedures in the US and the five largest European countries: the UK, Germany, France and Spain, plus Italy (which has no special legal provisions for consumer insolvency). All these countries have quite different approaches; the paper therefore presents a short overview of the insolvency procedures and trends in bankruptcy numbers for each country.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

5. Essential Steps for the European Union after the "No" Votes in France, the Netherlands Ireland

Author:
John Temple Lang and Eamonn Gallagher
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In the referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon in June 2008, Irish voters who voted against the Treaty gave several specific reasons as well as a variety of vague or general reasons that were unrelated to anything that was in the Treaty. These vague or general reasons are important because they probably were also significant influences in the “no” votes in France and the Netherlands. Moreover, they may be shared by a substantial but unknown number of people in other EU member states who did not get an opportunity to vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty or the Treaty for a Constitution. There were positive referendum results in Luxembourg and Spain. Other countries promised referenda, but did not hold them.
Topic:
International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Netherlands, and Ireland

6. Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper is the first in a series that will investigate “Who is a normative foreign policy actor?” It forms part of a new project intended to explore fundamental aspects of foreign policy at the global level, against the backdrop of a proliferation of global actors in the 21st century, following half a century with only one undisputed global hegemon: the US. The European Union is itself a new or emerging foreign policy actor, driven by self-declared normative principles. But Russia, China and India are also increasingly assertive actors on the global stage and similarly claim to be driven by a normative agenda. The question is how will these various global actors define their foreign policy priorities, and how they will interact, especially if their ideas of normative behaviour differ? This first paper sets out a conceptual framework for exploring these issues and defines 'normative' as being strongly based on international law and institutions, and thus the most 'universalisable' basis upon which to assess foreign policy. The foreign policy actor nevertheless has to be assessed not only on its declared goals, but also on the means it employs and the results it obtains. The truly normative foreign policy actor should score consistently on all three counts and in many different contexts, which will condition the extent to which normative policies are chosen, viable and effective. Subsequent papers in the series will apply this conceptual framework to five case studies on China, the EU, India, Russia and the US.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, India, France, and Berkeley

7. 'Outsourcing' de facto Statehood: Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

Author:
Daniel Gros and Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The European Union is suffering a deep crisis: disdain, disillusionment and distrust top the list of prevailing sentiments towards the European institutions, as was brought home dramatically by the failed referenda on the Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Moldova, Middle East, France, Georgia, and Netherlands

8. Should ratification proceed? An Assessment of Different Options after the Failed Referenda

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something 'more modest'.
Topic:
Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

9. Plan B

Author:
Richard Baldwin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and France

10. Iran: The Moment of Truth

Author:
Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
Topic:
Development and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany