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421. The EU's Rapid Reaction Capability

Author:
Charles Grant, François Heisbourg, Kori Schake, and Dmitry A. Danilov
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It has become something of a commonplace to say that the European Union is suffering from a lack of political leadership. Where are the Delors, Kohls, Mitterrands and Thatchers of today? This dearth is especially evident in the specific area of defence policy. For the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is a new and still largely embryonic venture. The progress made over the past three years has been striking, but there is a real risk that the ESDP that finally emerges will be much less impressive or noteworthy than had been promised.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

422. Seigniorage: An Argument for a National Currency?

Author:
Fransizka Schobert
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Seigniorage has often been mentioned as one of the most important and most readily quantifiable arguments for a government not to give up its monopoly in base money. The analysis shows that the measurement of seigniorage may lead to very different results and that it eventually depends on the monetary environment, in which central banks issue and manage base money. For less advanced countries in Central and Eastern Europe seigniorage has only been fiscally significant in high inflationary economies and even then the success in exploiting seigniorage has been limited. Widespread currency substitution has contributed to the results. Governments in these countries which are willing to stabilise prices but which lack crediblity to do so, may be increasingly interested in euroisation. More advanced EU-accession countries have received low revenues from having a national currency over the recent years. Seigniorage has arisen as a by-product of other central bank's objectives such as price and exchange rate stability. This caused high sterilisation costs and valuation gains of the central bank's asset portfolio have often been the main reason for positive results of seigniorage. In search for a viable monetary regime and in face of further liberalisations of capital markets these countries may look at euroisation as a choice to achieve price stability without exchange rate volatility.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

423. Democracy Promotion: The Case of European Union Strategy

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This working paper examines the nature of European Union democracy promotion policies since the mid-1990s. The analysis covers: EU democracy assistance projects; debates over the imposition of political conditionality; the importance attached to 'socialisation' dynamics; the relationship between commercial policy and democracy promotion; and a comparison between European and US approaches to political change. It is noted that the EU has developed significant new initiatives in the field of democracy promotion, many of which compare favourably with those of the US. The EU's approach to encouraging political change in the developing world has focused on enhancing the social and ideational foundations of sustainable democratisation, and has not favoured the systematic use of punitive conditionality. There have been notable attempts to link the democracy agenda to both grass roots development work and good governance initiatives. However, European democracy promotion still suffers from significant weaknesses. In particular, the different components of EU policy need to be dovetailed more effectively, based on a more balanced and comprehensive conceptualisation of the complex relationships between social, economic and political change.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe

424. Extending Citizenship Rights to Third Country Nationals

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Various issues arise in the European context with respect to the boundaries of citizenship; one of the main questions is to what extent the division between the European Union citizens and third country nationals will increase, especially if “deepening” of the Union leads to more tightening of its external borders. This paper addresses the question of how far citizenship rights can be extended to third country migrants in the EU?
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

425. What Drove Relative Wages in France? Structural Decomposition Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework, 1970-92

Author:
Sébastien Jean and Olivier Bontout
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper confronts a CGE model to observed evolutions in France, between 1970 and 1992, through a structural decomposition analysis. The choice of the model and the assumption of constant elasticities over time enable the structural change of the economy between two equilibria to be summarised through a set of four types of state variables, reflecting the effect of technical change, changes in factor supplies, shifts in consumption patterns, and international trade. Simulations then allow the contribution of each of these shocks to be assessed. We find that technical change had a strong positive impact on the relative wage of skilled to unskilled workers, while the impact of changes in factor supplies is strongly negative. The effect of international trade is far less important. However, if we take into account a trade-induced effect on productivity, then we find that trade substantially increased wage inequalities.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and France

426. Is the ECB Sufficiently Accountable and Transparent?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
More than two years after its inception, the ECB is still perceived as lacking transparency by many academics and market participants. Our analysis, based on a series of indicators, suggests instead that the ECB is, at least on paper, one of the most transparent and accountable central banks. The discrepancy between theory and public perception suggests that much remains to be done within the given institutional framework to improve the transparency of the ECB. What is the best way to achieve this goal? Several suggestions have been put forward, such as publishing the detailed minutes of the ECB Governing Council meetings. This would result in shifting the true debate to informal meetings of the Governing Council, while formal meetings would only record pre-packaged consensus with no or little discussion. In our view, the best way to make the ECB more accountable is to engage it in substantive discussions about its policy. The ECB should provide more information about the background analysis that leads to policy decisions. For example, the ECB should transform its 'staff projections' into true inflation forecasts and it should be more open about the arguments that shape the internal debates, which precedes decisions. Accountability cannot be ensured by the ECB alone. An important role has to be played by its counterparts, such as the European Parliament, the Council of EU Finance Ministers and the public at large.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

427. The Macedonian Crisis and Balkan Security

Author:
Nicholas Whyte, Nadia Alexandrova Arbatova, and Dana H. Allin
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For most of the last ten years, Europeans have been embarrassed by Jacques Poos' rash promise of 1991; during the conflicts in Bosnia and Croatia from 1991 to 1995, the phrase seemed only to sum up the ineffective ness and the pomposity of the European Union's pretensions to be an actor of importance in its own backyard. The Dayton Agreement of 1995 was achieved only when Richard Holbrooke threatened to pull the US out of the process and 'leave it to the Europeans'. Terrified by this awful prospect (at least, according to Holbrooke's version), the warring parties agreed to the deal.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

428. NATO Enlargement

Author:
François Heisbourg, Tomas Ries, Vladimir B. Aranovsky, and F. Stephen Larrabee
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Politically, further NATO enlargement in some form is probably unavoidable. On the deepest level, because NATO at its core is an expression of the Atlantic community of liberal democratic values. Refusing entry to new applicants who fulfil the criteria and knock strongly enough and long enough is not only politically embarrassing but undermines the foundation on which NATO rests.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

429. Reshaping Europe's Borders: Challenges for EU Internal and External Policy

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This colloquium brought together a distinguished list of political actors, policy makers, advisers, experts and researchers from all parts of Europe (see annex I for the list of papers presented and speakers). It was concerned with security in a broad sense, with special attention given to borders and to JHA (Justice and Home Affairs) issues.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe

430. Maastricht the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Transition Countires During the Run-Up to EMU

Author:
György Szapáry
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper raises some specific issues concerning the choice of exchange rate regime in transition countries during the run-up to EU/EMU membership. It argues that there is no "one-size-fits-all" exchange rate regime that accession countries should uniformly adopt. It also argues that the Maastricht criterion on inflation is inconsistent with the catching-up process because of the Balassa-Samuelson effect and that this inconsistency will encourage a "weighing-in" syndrome: like the boxer who refrains from eating for hours prior to the weigh-in only to consume a big meal once the weigh-in is over, the candidate country will maintain very tight monetary policy and resort to all sorts of techniques (freezing of administered prices, lowering of consumption taxes, etc.) to squeeze down inflation prior to accession only to shift back gears after it has joined the EMU. Indeed, the convergence of short-term interest rates to EMU levels that will come with accession will automatically mean a loosening of monetary policy after the country has become a member of the monetary union. That loosening will be reinforced if the country had previously allowed its exchange rate to appreciate against the euro. The result of this stop-go cycle is that the efficiency of economic management will suffer. It would be better to recognize the principle of the Balassa-Samuelson effect explicitly in the Maastricht criteria by giving more room for maneuver than the one provided by the present rule. The paper makes suggestions on how the Maastricht criterion on inflation could be adjusted and discusses their merits. It concludes that a reasonable compromise would be to define the permissible inflation deviation in reference to the average inflation rate of the euro zone, not the three EU members with the lowest inflation rate.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe