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11. What should the Community of Democratic Choice do?

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In August 2005, President Saakashvili of Georgia and President Yushchenko of Ukraine met at Borjomi, Georgia, and decided to launch an initiative to promote democracy among a community of like-minded states of Central and Eastern Europe. This led to a meeting in Kyiv on 2 December 2005, of a wider group of countries of the Baltic-Black-Caspian Sea region, which adopted a declaration announcing the creation of a Community of Democratic Choice (CDC) as a governmental and non-governmental forum to promote the strengthening of democracy, human rights and civil society. The next meeting of the CDC will take place as a Baltic and Black Sea Summit in Vilnius in May 2006.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

12. It's a long way to Copenhagen

Author:
Willem H. Buiter
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On October 3, 2005, Turkey officially started negotiations for membership in the European Union. Whether Turkey becomes a full member of the EU is likely to be a defining decision, both for the existing EU members and for Turkey. The regional - and geo-political consequences of success or failure of the negotiations, and its cultural and ideological impact, are likely to be even more significant than its economic consequences, although even from an economic perspective the stakes are very high. Turkey's population of over 70 million is larger than that of the ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 combined. Unlike the EU-25 (and in particular the ten new member states), the Turkish population is young and growing. Its present per capita income is lower than that of any of the EU-25 countries – about at the level of Romania and Macedonia, using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, with the right institutions and policies, Turkey could become a true tiger economy. But this is not guaranteed. With the institutions and policies of the second half of the 20th century, it could end up a mangy cat instead of a tiger.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Romania, and Macedonia

13. An Interim Plan for South-East Europe: Customs Union with the EU and a Regional Schengen for the Free Movement of People

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The central recommendation of the Amato report of April 20051 set the year 2014 as the target accession date for the whole of the Western Balkans, which would take the EU from the 27 (in 2007 or 2008) to 32 member states minimally, 33 with Turkey, and 35 in the event of independence for Montenegro and Kosovo. This scenario is in contradiction with the present mood of the EU following the French and the Dutch referenda, which rejected the Constitution that was itself designed to pave the way institutionally for further enlargement. The EU has now officially entered a period of profound reflection on its future, a process which cannot be hurried.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Montenegro

14. Policing Bosnia and Herzegovina 2003-05: Issues of Mandates and Management in ESDP Missions

Author:
Susan E. Penksa
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The European Union Police Mission (EUPM) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) represents a watershed development for the EU and its emerging European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). Never before has the EU organised and managed this type of stabilisation programme. In some ways, the launching of EUPM defined a new stage in the evolution of the EU itself, and certainly of the ESDP. An examination of the implementation of the EUPM in 2003-06 and the current planning for an EU mission in Kosovo suggests that a process of institutional change and learning has occurred among EU and national officials. At the same time, it is apparent that significant improvements are still necessary in the coordination between and within EU pillars as they relate to ESDP operations. To that end, this study focuses on five important challenges revealed by EU field operations in BiH: mission mandates; personnel expertise, recruitment and training; program design, implementation and assessment; reporting and decisionmaking procedures and structures; and the functions of EU representatives in the field (EU Special Representatives, Commission Head of Missions and Member States). Lastly, it also suggests the means to materially improve EU crisis response, paying special attention to lessons learned during the first EUPM and from EU efforts to address organised crime in BiH.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

15. Variable Geometries: Mapping Ideas, Institutions and Power in the Wider Europe

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The controversies and ambiguities characterising the EU neighbourhood strategy are ultimately due to the fact that the wider Europe concerns the conceptual, strategic and spatial limits of Europe. It is in this wider Europe that the EU as process meets the EU as actor. It is here that its 'gravitational power' meets its 'normative power'. It is here that the sui-generis EU governance system meets its foreign policy capabilities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

16. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe

Author:
David Kernohan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

17. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author:
Madalena Resende and Hendrik Kraetzschmar
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed to democratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the 'party of power' characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Egypt

18. The Black Sea as Epicentre of the Aftershocks of the EU's Earthquake

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It so happens that the epicentre of the EU's referenda earthquake – by way of its external impact – has now been located exactly in the middle of the Black Sea. Paradoxically, this comes at the same time that the region has begun to show signs of possibly getting a grip on itself.
Topic:
Government and International Organization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Romania

19. From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round

Author:
Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Lionel Fontagné, and Sébastien Jean
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called 'Girard proposal' (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

20. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate

Author:
Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe