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551. Japan-Korea Relations: North Korean Leadership Change Overshadows All

Author:
David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The last four months of 2011 were dominated by two leadership changes – the mid-December death of Kim Jong Il and the election of Noda Yoshihiko in September. Kim's death is a watershed event that could mean changes in DPRK policies with repercussions around the region. South Korea and Japan reacted cautiously to the news of Kim's death and the rise of his son, Kim Jong Un, as the new leader of North Korea. Beyond this event, however, Korea-Japan relations showed little change. Economic relations between South Korea and Japan continue to move slowly forward, even as they remain firmly stuck arguing the same issues that have aggravated diplomatic relations for decades. North Korea-Japan relations also showed little change as both sides repeated the usual accusations, but neither showed any inclination to change. Meanwhile, there were three main trends in relations. First, external forces drove state behavior as evidenced by the almost domino-like efforts at free trade agreements. Second, there was growing recognition of the high domestic political costs associated with non-pliable issues such as the comfort women/sex slaves. Third, there was a realization that change could mean opportunity as Seoul and Tokyo contemplate the post-Kim Jong Il landscape in North Korea.
Political Geography:
Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Tokyo, and Korea

552. China-Russia Relations: Between Geo-Economic and Geo-Politics

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The last four months of 2011 were both ordinary and extraordinary for Beijing and Moscow. There was certainly business as usual as top leaders and bureaucrats frequented each other's countries for scheduled meetings. The world around them, however, was riddled with crises and conflicts. Some (Libya and Syria) had seriously undermined their respective interests; others (Iran and North Korea) were potentially more volatile, and even dangerous, for the region and the world. Regardless, 2011 was a year full of anniversaries with symbolic and substantive implications for not only China and Russia, but also much of the rest of the world.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Beijing, North Korea, Libya, Moscow, and Syria

553. India-East Asia/US Relations: Triangulate This

Author:
Satu Limaye
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over a decade into the “normalization” of US-India relations and nearly 20 years into India's “Look East” policy, the US-India-East Asia nexus is regularly articulated by the US and India, generally accepted in the region, and shows some signs of gaining traction including a regular US-India dialogue on East Asia and the launch of the first-ever US-India-Japan trilateral dialogue. More broadly, US views of India as part of Asia now encompass mental as well as policy maps (though not yet bureaucratic and all geographical ones) and transcend party politics. Meanwhile, US-India bilateral relations move steadily if sometimes frustratingly forward, and India-East Asia ties continue to deepen and widen though to neither side's full satisfaction. One thing is clear: triangulation depends above all on India's own commitment and actions to build a closer relationship with the wider Asia-Pacific region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in an echo of comments made by regional leaders over the years, told an Indian audience in Chennai in July that “India's leadership will help to shape positively the future of the Asia Pacific. That's why … we encourage India not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well [emphasis added].”
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, India, East Asia, and Asia

554. The Afghan War: A Campaign Overview

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Defeating the insurgency not only in tactical terms, but by eliminating its control and influence over the population. Creating an effective and well-resourced NATO/ISAF and US response to defeating the insurgency and securing the population. Building up a much larger and more effective (and enduring base for transition) mix of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Giving the Afghan government the necessary capacity and legitimacy at the national, regional/provincial, district, and local levels. Creating an effective, integrated, and truly operational civil-military effort. NATO/ISAF, UN, member country, and NGO and international community efforts. Dealing with the sixth center of gravity outside Afghanistan and NATO/ISAF's formal mission. with the actions of Pakistan, Iran, and other states will be critical to success in Afghanistan.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Asia

555. African Conflicts and U.S. Diplomacy: Roles and Choices

Author:
Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the American Academy of Diplomacy (AAD) cohosted a conference on October 29, 2009, to examine the role of diplomacy in U.S. relations with Africa. Discussions were grounded in the belief that as U.S. interests and engagement in Africa expand, U.S. diplomatic capacities must expand accordingly. The need to effectively manage multiple strands of U.S. investments in security, development, and conflict mitigation and management has become more complex and more important. The United States faces a far more competitive environment in Africa than in previous decades, with “emerging powers”—most notably China, India, Brazil, and a number of smaller Asian states—making major political and economic plays, and with regional organizations, transnational influences, and African civil societies asserting themselves more and more in national affairs. At the same time, the United States faces continuing constraints in diplomatic resources and personnel. In this context, the United States will need to identify how best to use its influence in Africa, which policy areas and places it should prioritize, and how to balance effectively the use of diplomatic, military, and developmental tools.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

556. Agricultural Productivity in Changing Rural Worlds

Author:
Melinda Smale and Timothy M. Mahoney
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a village near Sheikhupura, Pakistan, Shahid Zia and other elders discuss strategies for coping with steadily declining water levels in the tube wells long used to irrigate their rice crop. They bemoan the rising costs of renting combines to harvest their wheat, made necessary to reduce post-harvest losses from the monsoon that now arrives earlier. Their soils are tired, and their crop yields stagnant. Farmers whose fathers once led the Green Revolution on the moist, rich soils of Pakistan's Punjab, they must now rehabilitate their soils, restore groundwater, and diversify crops to remain commercially competitive. The harvest laborers whose livelihoods these well-educated landowners supported now eke out a living in the slums of Lahore.
Topic:
Water
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Punjab

557. U.S. Strategic Interests in the Arctic: An Assessment of Current Challenges and New Opportunities for Cooperation

Author:
Heather Conley and Jamie Kraut
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
During the height of the Cold War, the Arctic region was considered a geostrategic and geopolitical playground for the United States and the Soviet Union, as strategic bombers and nuclear submarines crossed over and raced below the polar cap. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Arctic region significantly diminished in strategic importance to the United States. Twenty years later, senior U.S. military and diplomatic officials have turned their attention once again to the Arctic region but in a far different way than during the Cold War.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

558. An Arms Control Process for the Middle East

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Arms transfer to the Middle East are not the sole cause of the regional problems. In fact the acquisition of arms has been the product of the unresolved political settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict as well as other conflicts in the region. Over the past five decades there have been a number of arms control proposals and attempts for the Middle east. One main weakness of these proposals was that they were not integrated into a political process. The continued Arab-Israeli conflict made it practically impossible to formulate and implement formal arms control agreements, resulting in a failure from the beginning. Therefore, in any move towards arms control and regional security in the region, the linkage between both conventional and non-conventional weapons and the ongoing peace process must be made. A peaceful solution to the Arab –Israeli conflict should proceed alongside any arms control negotiations, specially in the establishment of a Weapons of Mass destruction Free Zone (WMDFZ) in the region. It is quite evident that peace cannot be achieved while still being threatened by a weapons of mass destruction capability of a neighboring country, nor can a WMDFZ be achieved without the context of a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. This has been recognized by the Obama administration as being a “vital national security interest of the United States”. The position of many countries in the region is that they find it difficult to enter serious arms control negotiations until some form of regional peace is fully established. This stems from their perception that nations in the region still consider military force as the only viable source to achieve their policy objectives. The danger from this underlying reasoning, if perceived as the only alternative to preserving a regional security balance, is that it could give rise to an uncontrollable arms race and to a parallel proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Any massive rearmament will surely create an unrestricted arms race in the Middle East which will automatically be accompanied by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The fear is that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction could give rise to states announcing a so-called “in-kind” deterrence or “the right to retaliate in kind”. Unless controlled this arms race will give rise to another military conflict with catastrophic human and environmental consequences.
Topic:
Security and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

559. Business in Bulgaria: An Overview for Investors and Managers in 2010

Author:
William Sullivan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the summer of 2009, the head of a prominent public relations consulting firm in Brussels told me that he had once tried to work with Bulgaria in the 1990s. After two years, however, the leadership of the firm concluded that Bulgaria was not yet ready to seriously engage with Europe, and they abandoned their attempts to work with the country. Since that time, Bulgaria has gained European Union membership while the same public relations head has gone on to successfully represent governmentlevel interests of other Eastern European states that are not EU members to this day. I was curious about this disconnect. Was this a function of the time that had passed and the progress that Bulgaria had made since the 1990s? Had this firm simply failed to read the tea leaves properly on Bulgaria? As I looked more deeply into the issue, however, it became clear that the story of Bulgaria in the late 20th and early 21st centuries is not so straightforward. Transitioning politically, geographically prone to conflict, new to capitalism and rife with corruption and organized crime, post-communist Bulgaria seemed to be a new Wild West – with all the same risk, but perhaps the same rewards, too.
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

560. Capacity for Change: Reforming U.S. Assistance Efforts in Poor and Fragile Countries

Author:
Noam Unger, Margaret L. Taylor, and Frederick Barton
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The U.S. government is in the midst of a serious review of how to engage more effectively with developing countries. A significant part of this reflection entails debates about how best to reform foreign aid, and there is a stunningly broad consensus that improvement is needed across the board. New legislation has recently been introduced in the U.S. Congress. The White House, the State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and other federal agencies are fully involved in this issue through Presidential Study Directive–7 on U.S. global development policy (PSD 7) and the first-ever Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR). The presidential study is poised to look at the full range of U.S. agencies and policy tools that affect development, including trade and international finance along with multilateral and bilateral aid. Meanwhile, the QDDR seeks to assess the capacities and requirements of the Department of State and USAID to confront a new generation of global challenges. Finally, with respect to key questions about foreign assistance and the elevation of development as a strong pillar of U.S. foreign policy, new presidential decisions and policies are expected from the Barack Obama administration in the spring of 2010.
Topic:
Development and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States