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231. Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Recently there has been a lot of attention given to the “Possible Military Dimension” of the Iran Nuclear Program, in particular concerns over Iran's ballistic missile program and its nuclear delivery capability. Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, and future ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons, represents the most serious risk shaping US, Arab, Israeli, and EU relationship with Iran. It is also an area where the exact details of threat perceptions are particularly critical, although many key aspects of Israeli, US, and G ulf perceptions – as well as the perceptions of other states – are impossible to determine at an unclassified level.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Iran

232. A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Michael Peacock, and Aaron Lin
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Data on Afghan Surge show had little or no lasting impact. NATO/ISAF stopped all meaningful reporting on security trends after EIA fiasco. No maps or assessments of insurgent control or influence versus limited dataf 10 worst areas of tactical encounters. No maps or assessments of areas of effective government control and support and areas where government is not present or lacks support. Shift from direct clashes to high profile and political attacks makes it impossible to assess situation using past metrics, but HPAs sharply up. UN casualty data and State Department START data on terrorism highly negative. No reason for insurgents to engage NATO/ISAF or ANSF on unfavorable terms before combat NATO/ISAF forces are gone.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

233. Japan's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Futures

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant triggered a public crisis of confidence in Japan's nuclear energy program. Once reliant on over 50 nuclear power reactors for 30% of its electricity generation, none of the reactors are in operation today. Instead, Japan has relied on importing coal, gas and oil with predict - able, negative effects on its trade balance, environment, and economy.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan

234. Improving Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health in Ghana

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In June 2014, a small team from the CSIS Global Health Policy Center traveled to Ghana to examine U.S. bilateral support for maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH). The purpose of the trip was to plan a return visit with a delegation of U.S. congressional staff in August 2014. Ghana's mixed progress toward meeting Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 related to maternal and child health; its strong relationship on immunizations with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and its longstanding partnership on health with the United States were all reasons we decided to examine the country's MNCH situation. By late July, the acceleration of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa led us to postpone the trip until emergency preparations are not a major focus of the Ghanaian government, the United States, and other partners. Considering the fruitful meetings we had in June, we have captured here some of our initial impressions, observations, and recommendations.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Ghana

235. Thinking beyond Roadmaps in Somalia

Author:
Dominik Balthasar
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Hope and optimism accompanied the installation of the new Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in September 2012, but the administration today appears to be drifting toward failure once again. Al - Shabaab is far from defeated, social fragmentation within Somalia is on the rise, and political infighting continues unabated. Despite considerable international support and the promise of a “New Deal” for donor engagement, the joint efforts of the government and its international partners have been unable to translate burgeoning progress into a more sustainable trajectory away from perpetual conflict and fragility.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Somalia

236. Remaking American Power

Author:
Trevor Houser, Shashank Mohan, Sarah O. Ladislaw, Michelle Melton, John Larsen, and Whitney Ketchum
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On June 2, 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its draft Clean Power Plan (CPP), a proposed rule to regulate carbon dioxide from the nation's existing power generation facilities. As the central pillar of the Obama administration's strategy for addressing climate change, the draft rule's release was both highly anticipated and contentious.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Government, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
America

237. Achieving Disaster Resilience in U.S. Communities

Author:
Stephanie Sanok Kostro and Garrett Riba
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, the rising amount of economic losses, and the mounting costs of providing relief indicate the growing importance of disaster resilience. Disasters have far- reaching consequences, ranging from the most basic physical injuries and property losses to long- term psychological, economic, and cultural damage. Merely supplementing resources to address the aftermath of disasters— rather than mitigating risks and putting in place key elements in advance of a disaster— is not a sustainable model for community resilience. Additionally, failure to utilize the resources of all public- and private- sector stakeholders to develop long- term planning mechanisms leaves communities vulnerable to repeated, high levels of damage and destruction.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Government, Terrorism, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
United States

238. Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Malaysia Steps into Spotlight as ASEAN and East Asia Summit Chair

Author:
Phuong Nguyen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Expectations for this week's East Asia Summit and related meetings have been rather modest given the increasing complexity of issues facing countries in Asia and the limited capacity of Myanmar as host. To be clear, Myanmar has done a commendable job given this is its first time chairing ASEAN and hosting other regional meetings.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Malaysia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia

239. Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Americans are reluctant to accept terrorism is part of their daily lives, but attacks have been planned or attempted against American targets (usually airliners or urban areas) almost every year since 9/11. Europe faces even greater risk, given the thousands of EU citizens who will return hardened and radicalized from fighting in Syria and Iraq.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Europe, and Syria

240. U.S. Department of Defense Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2012

Author:
David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, and Rhys McCormick
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has been analyzing and reporting on contract spending for national security and across the federal government. This report analyzes contracting for products, services, and research and development (R) by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and its key components. It provides an in-depth look at the trends currently driving nearly 70 percent of all federal contract dollars throughout the growth and subsequent inflection of defense spending of the 2000–2012 study period. This third edition of the DoD report updates reports from previous years and provides greater depth of analysis. Rather than primarily reporting the changes across dozens of graphs, the analysis lists key factors behind growth or decline. However, the ability to dive deeply into raw data is as important to many CSIS readers. To meet that need, CSIS has significantly upgraded the project website (http://www.csis.org/NSPIR/DoD ) to include the graphs and table contained within this report as well as variants by defense component and by product/service area. This web site will be a living repository. Throughout the year, the study team will publish and update the data underlying shorter publications on key issues relevant to the defense- industrial base.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States