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11. Iran's Presence in Iraq: New Realities?

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
This study explores the new realties related to the Iran’s presence in Iraq. It focuses on Iran’s grand strategy in Iraq, and Iran’s decision-making process concerning that presence. The study discusses different methods that Iran has used to achieve its goals in Iraq. It also discusses in-depth the four Iranian levels of intervention in Iraq, and the consequences on the region. The study includes supporting data, which help to understand the nature of Iranian intervention in Iraq.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Foreign Interference, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

12. Europe in Yemen: Still Much to Do

Author:
Lorenzo Piras
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The international community is helping Yemen by providing support in many different areas, most notably in the governance sector and in the fight against poverty and hunger. The European Union, acting through the European Commission, is one of the main donors to Yemen, and the individual Member States are actively engaged in the country, both backing the government’s development and social plans and carrying out some autonomous projects. This article will examine the state of the art European intervention in Yemen, with regard to both EC-funded development programmes and, in a broader perspective, to the strategic goals of Brussels in the country. The weaknesses of the European action in Yemen and the criticism it drew, especially from other Middle Eastern countries, will then be anazlyzed. Lastly, this piece will try to highlight how and with which objectives European efforts should be structured in order to stabilize Yemen effectively
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Political stability, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Yemen

13. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

14. The Jordan River Dilemma: A Basic Game Theoretical Approach

Author:
Maurice R. Wingo
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Fresh water resources are scarce in Jordan, Palestine, Syria and Israel. The situation is expected to worsen in these countries as they expand by population and economy. Regional water scarcity and the resulting overdrafting of the Jordan River can be framed and analyzed in a Game Theory (GT) framework. An existing GT study of the Nile River Basin can act as a principle example and reference. The goal of this essay is to better understand how we can save a dying Jordan River, and possibly achieve a more efficient regional water diversion scheme.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Scarcity, and Game Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Jordan Valley

15. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training

Author:
Farah Thalji
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan

16. The World Responds to Iran's Elections: An Early Assessment

Author:
Andrew Boyko, Mark Lewis, and Louise Stenfors Virenfeldt
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As the 2009 Iranian elections came to an end, many states and groups waited with anticipation to see who would lead Iran for the next four years. To the concern of many Western governments, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s second term as president was confirmed by the Guardian Council after a questionable recount. This paper tracks reactions from countries and groups following the election and assesses their possible implications for the future. The damning exchanges between Iran and the West are reaching a level of hostility that bodes ill for a future rapprochement. If they continue to escalate, and if Iran is unwilling to scale down its nuclear programme, is the possibility of military action against this country coming closer to realization?
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Power, Elections, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

17. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

18. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini

Author:
Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

19. The Annapolis Meeting: Too Little Too Late!

Author:
Hassan Barari
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As of writing this piece, no final date has yet been set for the Annapolis meeting, but most likely it will be the last week of November. Amid the premature optimism, the concerned parties need to realize that the meeting is likely to fail. Indeed, rejectionists on both sides are already rubbing their hands gleefully in anticipation of a colossal failure. Therefore, many observers have warned that this summit requires careful planning and, more importantly, a day-to-day strategy, should the meeting fail. They argue that US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has backtracked from her original plans and has changed the agenda of the conference in such a way that it will have a limited purpose. The new thinking is that the Annapolis meeting should be seen as a process and not as an event. This article sheds light on the dynamics that will determine the degree of success.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America