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1. Anti-fragmentation: an incomplete diagnosis and wrong solution

Author:
Marek Dąbrowski
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
A study by Marek Dąbrowski (CASE) entitled “Anti-fragmentation: an incomplete diagnosis and wrong solution”, requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), was published in the Monetary Dialogue Papers series in September 2022. Since the 1990s, the public debt-to-GDP ratio has gradually increased in almost all current euro area member countries. In most of them, it now exceeds the Maastricht reference value of 60%, in several of them – 100%, and in a few cases – even more. It creates a severe challenge to the stability of public finances, the entire financial system and monetary stability in the euro area being also the primary cause of the so-called fragmentation. The study begins with an analysis of the excessive public debt in the euro area. An overview of the fiscal stance in the euro area as a whole and, separately, in individual Member States from 1997 to 2021 is complemented with the analysis of mechanisms of fiscal discipline – again on the EU/euro area level and the national level separately. Three causes of the ineffectiveness of these mechanisms are then identified: (1) political economy factors at the national level; (2) political economy factors at the European level; and (3) fallacies of economic science. The next part concerns ECB involvement in the sovereign debt market in the euro area. A historical analysis is conducted starting from the period of the EFC (2010–2015) to quantitative easing of 2014-2022. Two important periods from recent history are detailed - additional quantitative easing of the pandemic era (2020–2022) and the turn towards monetary policy tightening in 2022. In the last part of the study, the author argues that the problem of “fragmentation” is wrongly formulated. It is a secondary symptom of the excessive sovereign indebtedness in some euro area economies. It should be remedied by fiscal policy measures (fiscal consolidation) rather than by the ECB’s quasi-fiscal activities. The latter is not consistent with its legal status, compromises its independence (and credibility of the euro), and undermines its ability to deliver on its price stability mandate. When a targeted market intervention is necessary, it should be provided by the European Stability Mechanism, the institution created for this purpose in 2012, instead of the ECB.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Global value chains: Potential synergies between external trade policy and internal economic initiatives to address the strategic dependencies of the EU

Author:
Agnieszka Skowronek and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Global value chains enable two-thirds of international trade, notably for the EU. The EU wants to preserve its commercial links with third countries and organisations to make up for trade disruptions. This study examines sustainable supply of raw materials, commodities, and critical goods using the EU's Open Strategic Autonomy concept. It examines which raw material are crucial for sustainable supply and necessary for the green transition. The paper examines EU internal legislation and international cooperation instruments to determine the EU's disruption risk. It evaluates the economic impact of EU preferential trade agreements on raw material availability. The study illustrates the political and economic relevance of raw material partnerships and plurilateral and bilateral trade agreements. It analyses the EU's toolbox for safeguarding its interests and making independent trade choices to counteract other actors' unfair practices and intervention. Finally, the paper examines regulatory frameworks, international alliances, and activities to find ways to strengthen global value chains in critical EU industries.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Trade, Global Value Chains, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

3. EU cooperation with non-member neighboring countries: the principle of variable geometry

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this study the author analyzes the experience of the European Union in cooperation with non-member neighboring countries, to which the EU’s integration process and institutions are both available. On the one hand, several non-member countries are interested in close cooperation or integration with the organization because of their future membership aspirations or simply because they consider the EU an important economic and political partner. On the other hand, the EU itself is also interested in building such close relations, for economic but often also for geopolitical and security reasons.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

4. Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: From Maastricht via SGP to the Fiscal Pact

Author:
Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The present paper first takes a step backwards with an attempt to situate the adoption of this Treaty in discussion of the SGP and the “Maastricht criteria” (the criteria for EMU membership fixed in the Maastricht Treaty) in a longer perspective of the sharing of competences for macroeconomic policy making within the EU from the initial Treaty to the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). It then presents the main features of the Fiscal Treaty and its relation to the SGP and draws some conclusions as regards the importance and relevance of this new step in the process of economic policy coordination. It concludes that the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union does not seem to offer a definitive solution to the problem of finding the appropriate budgetary-monetary policy mix in the EMU already well identified in the Delors report in 1989 and regularly emphasised ever since and now seriously aggravated due to the Crisis. Furthermore, the implementation of this Treaty may under certain circumstances contribute to an increase in the uncertainties as regards the distribution of the competences between the European Parliament.
Topic:
Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Eurozone, Trade, Economic Integration, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in South and East Mediterranean Countries by 2030

Author:
Saad Belghazi
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.
Topic:
Agriculture, Globalization, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

6. EU-Ukraine DCFTA: the Model for Eastern Partnership Regional Trade Cooperation

Author:
Veronika Movchan and Volodymyr Shportyuk
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The EU has been one of the largest trade partners for so called Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Commodity turnover of these countries with the EU vary between 30% and 50% of total, but their access to the EU market is less preferential than for many other neighboring countries. They trade with the EU on the basis of MFN regime, and five EaP countries, with exemption of Belarus, use privileges provided by Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or the GSP+ or autonomous trade preferences (Moldova). With the launch of EaP initiative in 2009, relations between the EU and the Eastern European countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) have received new impetus for development. The EaP offers upgrade of relations within three major dimensions, namely (a) the Association Agreement (AA), (b) Agreement on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), and (c) Visa Facilitation and Readmission agreements. The AA talks have been launched with all EaP countries expect for Belarus, and four of them have been involved in the DCFTA talks. Ukraine has progressed the most, as after five years of negotiations the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement with embedded DCFTA has been initialed in 2012.The aim of this study is to assess gains and losses that could arise from the DCFTA with the EU for the EaP countries, using information about EU-Ukraine DCFTA as model case for EaP regional trade cooperation.The focus of the paper is on non-tariff (regulatory) component of the EU DCFTA and potential implications of regulatory approximation. Also, current level of harmonization of EaP countries’regulatory framework with the EU acquis in the areas related to the DCFTA is analyzed.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Regional Integration, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

7. How to improve the economic and social performance of Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries

Author:
Luc De Wulf and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region has many advantages. Its proximity to European markets and its strategic location along the Mediterranean Sea help facilitate the trade of goods among Europe, Asia and Africa. The region has great historical and civilizational importance. It also has plentiful supplies of oil and natural gas resources and great demographic potential. Yet despite these many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. In this brief the authors analyze the key challenges facing the MED11 countries and propose policy measures that could improve the region’s economic and social performance.
Topic:
Globalization, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean

8. Russia's Accession to the WTO: Impacts and Challenges

Author:
Irina Tochitskaya
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
On December 16th, 2011, an 18 year long negotiation process regarding Russia’s WTO membership was finally brought to an end. Undoubtedly, Russia’s WTO accession is an important event both for the global trade system and for the country. With Russia now in the club, the WTO will control over 97 per cent of global trade.
Topic:
Globalization, World Trade Organization, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

9. Is Free Trade with the EU Good for Ukraine?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski and Svitlana Taran
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The negotiations on the Association Agreement (AA) between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, including its trade component, i.e., the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), were completed in December 2011. The agreement is practically ready to be signed, if the EU’s concerns related to the deteriorating political freedoms in Ukraine are addressed. The ball is now in Ukraine’s court and the correct and rapid response is crucial for the country’s future. Both the AA and the DCFTA offer Ukraine an opportunity to deepen its political and economic relations with the EU and modernize its own economy and state institutions. However, if fundamental economic, political, and institutional reforms are not accelerated and conducted in a more comprehensive and consistent way, the prospect of implementing the DCFTA (and its potential benefits) will come under question.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Free Trade, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

10. The new old choice for economic policymakers in Belarus

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In 2011, the Belarusian ruble lost nearly 2/3 of its value. In December, the inflation rate approached 110% yoy. At the same time, the economy grew by 5.3% that year and continued with 3.6% yoy growth in January 2012. Is this a sign of economic recovery? Will it turn into sustainable growth? Or has the country exited from the crisis at all? To address these questions, CASE Fellow and Director of the IPM Research Centre in Minsk Alexander Chubrik looks at the roots of the 2011 crisis and compares them with the features of the long-lasting period of economic growth in Belarus.
Topic:
Globalization, Economic Growth, Inflation, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus